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Forums - Gaming - My take on the NEO and SCORPIO

Intrinsic said:
Ramadear said:
Sounds like console users are becoming pc users.

Not at all. Not even in the slightest. Whats funny about statements like this is how baseless they are. Do you realize that smartphones have more in common to a PC than a console? If you insist with a smartphone ypu can actually fully replace your PC or laptop, they even do more than a console does. They are refreshed eveey single year almost without fail, command prices more inline with an average PC, yet we don't see people saying smartphone buyers are PC buyers. 

A console ia still a console, a refresh every 3-6yrs doesn't male it like a PC in the slightest. A console only really becomes like a PC when you can walk into a store, change your Ram, Hard drive, CPU and GPU. I just don't see the connection at all.

Ganoncrotch said:

This isn't really how virtualized machines work at all, keep in mind the PS4 does a lot more than just run the game, there is a lot of things going on inside the system which all take a toll on its resources, a virtualization server is not going to be doing things like monitoring your friends list in the background, even things like the in game capturing would obviously be handed over to the PS4 at your end, simply recording the visuals being streamed down.. lol even the clock functionality would be handled locally! I'm just saying that even on dumb terminals in a bank, not every little thing is run from the Virtualization Serve

You are right and wrong at the same time :).

Lets break it down to the basics. Using a PS4. For a game to run on the PS4, it needs 6 CPU cores and an 18CU GPU with ~5GB of GDDR5 ram. This is the app allotment in hardware for all games built for the PS4 to work. Now even if you take out the 2 2CPU cores and eveeything else need to run the other background tasks the PS4 runs, you still need at least what i memtioned earlier in your "virtualized machine" to get it to work.

Now even if you have highly specialized virtualization machines that can each run 2-3 instances of the PS4, you still need them to either exactly have the aforr mentioned minimum hardware or at least something that is so powerful that it can emulate it. Either way, thats a lot of money. 

There really is no way around this, no virtualization machine is less powerful than the core hardware its trying to emulate. Its just impossible. 

If you want to strip what it takes to run an instance of a PS4 game down to its core, you need 6 CPU/ 18CU GPU and 5GB ram then multiply tjat by how ever many millions of people you intend to be able to play a game simultaneously (or its equivalent). Selling hardware directly to users would always be cheaper and more efficient than that, especially when you stand to make a profit from selling the hardware to begin with. 

I belive game streaming will always be a backend option. A way sony or whoever else can repurpose old obsolete hardware. They will never put PS4 level virtualization machines in a server somehwhere when they can sell that hardware directly to an emd User, but when the PS5 comes along, and no one is biying the stock PS4 anymore, they can get them back and throw them into their servers.... 

Even at the most basic level you have to understand that no one plays their PS4 around the clock, most would play in the evening which handily enough rotates around the globe daily! so only one time zone is a peak user of hardware for a SAAS cloud service like this. Proper server management would not mean having the power of the number of users of the service all at once, that would be insane.



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Ganoncrotch said:

Even at the most basic level you have to understand that no one plays their PS4 around the clock, most would play in the evening which handily enough rotates around the globe daily! so only one time zone is a peak user of hardware for a SAAS cloud service like this. Proper server management would not mean having the power of the number of users of the service all at once, that would be insane.

Of course, but its not that simple. 

Say you start a streaming service. And you have hardware that can virtualized 1M consoles. Of course at the beginning you don't expect your all 1M slots to be taken up simultaneously at all times. So you can issue out 2M subscribers which are covered by your 1M slots. 

When you subscriber base goes up to 5M, you need to increase those slots to at least around 2.5M and hope you don't release any one game that everyone in that one territory wants to play at once. 

And that's all just one territory. 

Then consider that such a subscription service will have a much much much lower price of entry. Probably something along the lines of $30/month at its highest.That unfortunately means your adoption rate is going to be a lot higher. Especially around those months when games like uncharted are coming out. 

Bottom line, you can't just lowball it and there are tons of variables to consider. You also can't afford to have people pay to play games and end up with a sub par expericne. Whatever the case, if you at any point have a user base of 100M people, you can't make do with only 20M slots. And with something that requires a very low price of entry, you will get to that 100M really quickly. 

This isn't like Netflix, the hardware required to drive games is waaaay more complex and expensive than whats required to drive video streams exclusively. This is like having Netflix and something else entirely that's way more expensive than Netflix ever was combined. 



Intrinsic said:
Ganoncrotch said:

Even at the most basic level you have to understand that no one plays their PS4 around the clock, most would play in the evening which handily enough rotates around the globe daily! so only one time zone is a peak user of hardware for a SAAS cloud service like this. Proper server management would not mean having the power of the number of users of the service all at once, that would be insane.

Of course, but its not that simple. 

Say you start a streaming service. And you have hardware that can virtualized 1M consoles. Of course at the beginning you don't expect your all 1M slots to be taken up simultaneously at all times. So you can issue out 2M subscribers which are covered by your 1M slots. 

When you subscriber base goes up to 5M, you need to increase those slots to at least around 2.5M and hope you don't release any one game that everyone in that one territory wants to play at once. 

And that's all just one territory. 

Then consider that such a subscription service will have a much much much lower price of entry. Probably something along the lines of $30/month at its highest.That unfortunately means your adoption rate is going to be a lot higher. Especially around those months when games like uncharted are coming out. 

Bottom line, you can't just lowball it and there are tons of variables to consider. You also can't afford to have people pay to play games and end up with a sub par expericne. Whatever the case, if you at any point have a user base of 100M people, you can't make do with only 20M slots. And with something that requires a very low price of entry, you will get to that 100M really quickly. 

This isn't like Netflix, the hardware required to drive games is waaaay more complex and expensive than whats required to drive video streams exclusively. This is like having Netflix and something else entirely that's way more expensive than Netflix ever was combined. 

Here in lies the mistake though, if you have a global number of players who wish to play a game on their peak time of 6-9PM you are talking about a window of usage which covers just 1/8th of the planet at any given time, while it's 7pm in EU its unlikely the midday gamer would be as active in the US or the 2am gamers in Japan. (approx didn't work out exactly but the point stands).



Why not check me out on youtube and help me on the way to 2k subs over at www.youtube.com/stormcloudlive

Ganoncrotch said:

Here in lies the mistake though, if you have a global number of players who wish to play a game on their peak time of 6-9PM you are talking about a window of usage which covers just 1/8th of the planet at any given time, while it's 7pm in EU its unlikely the midday gamer would be as active in the US or the 2am gamers in Japan. (approx didn't work out exactly but the point stands).

You are talking globally, and you are talking about playing games like uts somethung nost people do for an hour or two at a time. 

Rather than we keep going ove this, picture it this way. If you you have an sub base of 40M in NA alone, how many virtualization machines would you need?



Intrinsic said:
Ganoncrotch said:

Here in lies the mistake though, if you have a global number of players who wish to play a game on their peak time of 6-9PM you are talking about a window of usage which covers just 1/8th of the planet at any given time, while it's 7pm in EU its unlikely the midday gamer would be as active in the US or the 2am gamers in Japan. (approx didn't work out exactly but the point stands).

You are talking globally, and you are talking about playing games like uts somethung nost people do for an hour or two at a time. 

Rather than we keep going ove this, picture it this way. If you you have an sub base of 40M in NA alone, how many virtualization machines would you need?

A sub base in the US alone which would compare to the global sales of the PS4, that would be absolutely mindblowing, I can't give you a number though but the PS4 is not a powerhouse in terms of power though, it performs its duty really well but in comparison to some PC enthusiasts machines here or even the PS3/X360 when that launched it isn't a super computer in the slightest.

I mean even in terms of the memory the system has, sure a massive 5gb of GDDR5 is great for a game... but you gotta look at it from the point of a PC virtualization server... Windows Hyper V Server 2012 had a limit to RAM of 4TB ya know... 4 Terabytes for a single Virtualization server or 819 times the memory of a single PS4 and that was the previous generation of windows Virtualization server I'm not even sure what the limit is on Server2016 nevermind a custom build which would be used for something like Gaikai if you think a company would use 40m servers for a sub base of 40m PS4 level of systems I'm just at a loss really.



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Well, i don't have and will not be getting a 4K tv, for a while, so i can't care less about either of them. My current tv is only about 3 or 4 years old.



Intrinsic said:
Ganoncrotch said:

Here in lies the mistake though, if you have a global number of players who wish to play a game on their peak time of 6-9PM you are talking about a window of usage which covers just 1/8th of the planet at any given time, while it's 7pm in EU its unlikely the midday gamer would be as active in the US or the 2am gamers in Japan. (approx didn't work out exactly but the point stands).

You are talking globally, and you are talking about playing games like uts somethung nost people do for an hour or two at a time. 

Rather than we keep going ove this, picture it this way. If you you have an sub base of 40M in NA alone, how many virtualization machines would you need?

Oh wait... was this line meant to read "like it's something most people do for an hour or two at a time"? I tried to read it a few times but just skipped it, but yeah most people who work a 9-5 job and have kids will come home and get to play their system for a few hours in the evening normally between 6-9pm, there are people who do not work (10% average unemployment) or who are not in education below the age of 18 (can't put a % on that) but the average person who owns a TV and PS4 will most likely not be the person who can play a console for 24 hours straight... or ya know... even the most dorment of human being can't do that for an extended period without dying.



Why not check me out on youtube and help me on the way to 2k subs over at www.youtube.com/stormcloudlive

Sixteenvolt420 said:
Well, i don't have and will not be getting a 4K tv, for a while, so i can't care less about either of them. My current tv is only about 3 or 4 years old.

Yeah I think it will be a number of years before I get a 4k screen too, but that said I'd still like a slightly more powerful console just to iron out a few of the times when a game goes into shudder mode though, more horsepower doesn't just mean more resolution, Phil Said that recently about the Scorpio but I mean clearly there is a different in what the small gap between the X1 and PS4 gives in terms of graphical stability on the 2 systems so the power increase of something like the 6teraflop Scorpio should finally mean locked 1080p/60fps at the very least in all titles.



Why not check me out on youtube and help me on the way to 2k subs over at www.youtube.com/stormcloudlive

Ganoncrotch said:

A sub base in the US alone which would compare to the global sales of the PS4, that would be absolutely mindblowing, I can't give you a number though but the PS4 is not a powerhouse in terms of power though, it performs its duty really well but in comparison to some PC enthusiasts machines here or even the PS3/X360 when that launched it isn't a super computer in the slightest.

I mean even in terms of the memory the system has, sure a massive 5gb of GDDR5 is great for a game... but you gotta look at it from the point of a PC virtualization server... Windows Hyper V Server 2012 had a limit to RAM of 4TB ya know... 4 Terabytes for a single Virtualization server or 819 times the memory of a single PS4 and that was the previous generation of windows Virtualization server I'm not even sure what the limit is on Server2016 nevermind a custom build which would be used for something like Gaikai if you think a company would use 40m servers for a sub base of 40m PS4 level of systems I'm just at a loss really.

Its not as mindblowong as you think. If all you need to play PS games is a controller, and an internet connection and you willingness to pay for your subscription for that month..... I can gaurantee you that having an install base of 40M in the space of one year in one territory won't be that hard at all. As lomg as the service works and we all have an internet connection that can hanfle it.

And that memory thing, you do know that GDDR5 ram os differrmt from normal ram right? 

And ive repeated numerous times, i dont think you need 40M servers for 40M subscribers.... you know what never mind. You should read all i have said again. 



Why? The RX480 is around 200$ that has similar specs to a Scorpio. Another year, and it could be below 150$ on the market. Microsoft won't make such a dumb mistake again (hopefully).



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).