What do you see as the sales ranges for the PS3, PSP, Wii, DS, and 360 for the rest of the year in the USA through October (before the holidays), assuming there are no further price cuts?
I think we are looking at sales like this:
40-60k/week - PSP (160k to 300k per month, depending on if it is 4 or 5 weeks)
40-125k/week - 360 (Under 65k per week until GTA & Halo 3, so 160k to 625k for a month)
75-150k/week - DS (No stopping it now. 300k in a 4 week month, upto 750k in a 5 week month)
17-70k/week - PS3 (17-35k until GTA/Madden, As low as 68k to as high as 350,000)
55-120k/week - Wii (80-110k most weeks, less when constrained, more shipped for big software 220-600k)
Japan should see weekly sales of ranges 100-150k DS, 30-50k PSP, 45-90k for Wii, 8-25k for PS3, and 2-15k for 360 until the holidays, although in most weeks sales will be more like 60k Wii, 10k PS3, and 3k 360.
Worldwide, I think the realistic weekly ranges for the consoles (through Oct 31) are something like 180,000 to 280,000 Wiis sold per week, 35,000 to 120,000 PS3's sold per week, and 65,000 to 180,000 Xbox 360's sold per week.
If you split the difference, you arrive at 230,000 Wiis per week, 77,500 PS3s sold per week, and 122,500 360s sold per week. There are 22 and 3/7 weeks left until October 31, 2007, which means the consoles will be at the following (rough) worldwide totals (Current Console Total + (22.428)Average Console Sales Rate)
Wii 7,090,000 + (22.428)(230,000) = 12,248,571 Oct 31 Worldwide Total
360 9,710,000 + (22.428)(122,500) = 12,457,500 Oct 31 Worldwide Total
PS3 3,331,000 + (22.428)(77,500) = 5,069,215 Oct 31 Worldwide Total
If the trend continued, Wii would pass 360 by November 13, 2007. It is worth noting that 360 is probably not selling at the projected average rate at the moment, and it will sell at the high end of the rate in September & October. Also, Wii shipments are unpredictable. Still, this is meant to offer a general idea about the future...
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