Forums - Sales Discussion - Sales Ranges

What do you see as the sales ranges for the PS3, PSP, Wii, DS, and 360 for the rest of the year in the USA through October (before the holidays), assuming there are no further price cuts?

I think we are looking at sales like this:

40-60k/week - PSP (160k to 300k per month, depending on if it is 4 or 5 weeks)

40-125k/week - 360 (Under 65k per week until GTA & Halo 3, so 160k to 625k for a month)

75-150k/week - DS (No stopping it now.  300k in a 4 week month, upto 750k in a 5 week month)

17-70k/week - PS3 (17-35k until GTA/Madden, As low as 68k to as high as 350,000)

55-120k/week - Wii (80-110k most weeks, less when constrained, more shipped for big software 220-600k)

Japan should see weekly sales of ranges 100-150k DS, 30-50k PSP, 45-90k for Wii, 8-25k for PS3, and  2-15k for 360 until the holidays, although in most weeks sales will be more like 60k Wii, 10k PS3, and 3k 360.

Worldwide, I think the realistic weekly ranges for the consoles (through Oct 31) are something like 180,000 to 280,000 Wiis sold per week,  35,000 to 120,000 PS3's sold per week, and 65,000 to 180,000 Xbox 360's sold per week.

If you split the difference, you arrive at 230,000 Wiis per week, 77,500 PS3s sold per week, and 122,500 360s sold per week.  There are 22 and 3/7 weeks left until October 31, 2007, which means the consoles will be at the following (rough) worldwide totals (Current Console Total + (22.428)Average Console Sales Rate)

Wii 7,090,000 + (22.428)(230,000) = 12,248,571 Oct 31 Worldwide Total

360 9,710,000 + (22.428)(122,500) = 12,457,500 Oct 31 Worldwide Total

PS3 3,331,000 + (22.428)(77,500) = 5,069,215 Oct 31 Worldwide Total

If the trend continued, Wii would pass 360 by November 13, 2007.  It is worth noting that 360 is probably not selling at the projected average rate at the moment, and it will sell at the high end of the rate in September & October.  Also, Wii shipments are unpredictable. Still, this is meant to offer a general idea about the future...

People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

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Which essentialy means: That PS3 is foked for 2007! You just have to look at that ugly number! 5 million... That's worying!

THE NETHERLANDS

I don't think you can say that PS3 sales have stopped falling since there has been no flattening of the curve yet. So your low estimates for the PS3 could be quite a bit lower.

British people would bet on that November 13th 2007! lol I would say a bit earlier if Nintendo can boosts its prod.

Yep PS3 numbers look optimistic. I.e. there is a decent chance it will be below your low range. For information, the lowball estimate from your numbers is 4.115 Million by October 31. Wii numbers look about right since it is roughly what they say they will be making. And I have no idea what that prod on November 13th is for British people -- and I'm British. Were you thinking of November 5th, which is Fireworks night??

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Couple more points, sorry. TheSource's best estimate means that by October 31st they won't have sold as many PS3's as they have already made NOW. (They've made 5.5 million per their recent annual report.) And because the Wii is easiest to predict (i.e. basically their production) it's the only one with a low-high range lower than a factor of 2 on weekly sale. (PS3 is more than 3X variation.) Which means that we have to take TheSource's predictions with a pinch of salt, and also that he would be an appalling games sales analyst. In other words, he's a good analyst and doesn't make stuff up!

I think Wii numbers for Japan are a little low, i think if Nintendo can deliver enough units it will be more like 80k/week with higher numbers during the first weeks after Dragon Quest Swords release.

Last Game beaten: The Rub Rabbits(DS)

I wonder if larry even realizes that he does his own cause more damage than good by taking things to the extreme so much.

Who is Larry?

People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

 TheSource said:Who is Larry?

I think he means this guy: http://vgchartz.com/profiles/profile.php?id=2847&tab=forum