Going with 25 million.

An improvement over the gamecube, which was $99 in... I want to say 18 months after launch? Which is a detracting factor for older, core gamers with patience and memory looking for a secondary console. While riding some launch hype that rolled over from the Wii.

This. I just want all the major games on the system. With Nintendo's stuff. The overall console sales isn't important to me. The Wii U was crap. Because its been the worst for games avalible.

Saleswise, I don't know, maybe the 30 million sounds just about right, but gameswise... If you think the Wii U library and games that people talk about 20 years from now how awesome they were back in the day, there's around none on the system.

I agree. You can definitely make a good profit & be successful with a console even at 20 Million. A lot of different factors go into it, including selling the console itself at a profit, and attach rate. 

I just think that success is relative. For example, if you have just started working out and can do 10 push-ups without stopping, but a month later, can do 25, that's success. However, for someone who has been doing them for years, 25 might be considered a failure. (might be having an off day)

Going from 100 Million+ sold to 50 Million doesn't look like a win..I agree tho, 50M or even 30M would've been plenty to work with

The Gamecube price-cut to $99 was a little more than 22 months after launch.  (November 18, 2001 - September 24, 2003)

Though the PS2 was on average only ~$54 more expensive than the Gamecube throughout it's lifespan. 

Sales wise they should be aiming to follow up with gains like the Wii. No less than 5 times as much as Wii U in the first 4 years. In order to do that, it can't:

A. Do something stupid like the N64 and cartridges.

B. Aim at the children's market like GameCube.

C. Release very few great games, like both the GameCube and Wii U.

It has to do something new and exciting and have the games to back it, like the Wii, DS, SNES, and NES did.

Keep in mind, SNES sales only dropped because Nintendo had legal issues and didn't release many many games in Europe. It resulted in SNES not even really getting much of a start in popularity until Donkey Kong Country came out. We still had to import a lot of games if we wanted the best ones. Had Nintendo reached its potential in the SNES era, it would have almost certainly exceeded NES.

focus on the standard controllers and get the 3rd party games, constant release of and good gap in between Nintendo published games would be a good hit. 30M is a good borderline for Nintendo consoles.

Around N64 sales probably