Prologue regionally will do very well in Europe probably easily reaching over a million units in the first week. However in North America I suspect the title will fall on deaf ears struggling to reach four hundred thousand, and in Japan nobody is going to take any notice at all. This title will struggle to break one and a half million units globally.
Motorstorm a launch title on the PS3 one of the best in the first year has yet to break three million in sales. Yes it was a good title, because the PS3 had a lousy first year on the market. No racer in recent memory has broken a hundred thousand in Japan. I actually think Excite Truck has come the closest. The game then splits between Others and North America with the Other region retaining greater sales.
Basically the racing market on this console is smaller then is expected, and will be supremely front ended. The result probably being that the title will not exceed three million units this year. The larger racing market on the 360 might have done better with this title. However being that it is on the PS3 and the consoles past performance in spite of the titles pedigree. We are not going to see ungodly sale. Two million in the first month, and another million throughout the rest of the year at best.
I wouldn't consider the title a bomb. The only thing that can blow up here are unrealistic expectations. Which some posters undoubtedly have. Visions of a major console seller, or a slayer of the sales giants. This title is relegated to the B list of sellers. With the likes of a Mass Effect. I think we will find that the likes of an Assassins Creed will end up being a better seller. Even having better legs.