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Forums - Sony Discussion - What if MGS4 and GT5 P bombs.?

Just_Ben said:
Noobie said:

So far all the discussion on the Sony forum is regarding how good MGS 4 and GT5 P is going to be... and nobody try to remember the past trend... apart from few partial hits like DMC4 and (i don't remember any other) :), all the games have mostly bombed on PS3

So to cut the long story short.. i would say there is a reasonable chance that MGS4 and GT5 P bombs... So far PS3 has no million seller on day 1. and i m not sure if it will have 1 game like this in this yr atleast.

So there are 2 question wot amount of sales will determine that the MGS4 or GT5 P is a success or a bomb..

i think for GT5 P anything below 500k on week one in each Europe and NA is going to classify it as a bombed

For MGS4 i think anything below750k on week one in each Europe and NA and 400k for Jap is going to classify it as a bombed...

Second question is wot is percentage chances of each of these games to get bombed again on PS3..

I would say there is a reasonable chance like 35% for them to get bombed...

So wot u say.?

 

 

Sorry, but 500k in one week for GT5:P is bommed? If it was GT5, maybe but prologe? Hell do you know what you are talking about? On the PS2 GT4:P had a total of 2 Million, and you say, selling 1 Million week one would be bad? I must dreamin.

 


Thats why i asked wot is ur sales amount for judging if the game is a bomb or not. Remeber how much time this title is in the news and how much hype it has and investment it required.. and secondly when the MGS4 will be released it will be almost 19 months for the PS3 to be in the market... and after 19 months one should have a title with some huge sales to show that the conole is alive and is not dying..



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It's a fact they won't bomb. Let me repeat that...FACT. Not opinion. They are two high profile games first of all with millions sold on each past iteration. Secondly, it's bundled! No bundled game can bomb as long as it stays bundled. The PS3 itself would have to bomb for either of those games to bomb with it. I actually think it's possible we'll be looking at the highest selling games in each of the series.



Tag: Became a freaking mod and a complete douche, coincidentally, at the same time.



These games have little chance of bombing but i agree with DOATS1 in saying that peoples expectations for MGS4 are a little high, i mean the game might surprise us, but i doubt it will sell >4 million units this year alone! I mean thats like saying every single PS3 owner in the US will buy the game!



Imthelegend said:
I don't think they will bomb but with MGS how much will they need to sell to profit on it. It seems to have been in development forever and I think they will need to sell at least 3M just to cover costs. I would put GT3P in this basket as well but the main game will make up for any chance of losses.

If anything, GT5P will give them some help to cover the costs of GT5 and give them some capital to work with in the time between releases.  It's not like creating GT5P was some huge side project independent of the work on GT5.



Expect world wide domination of the PS3 starts with GT 5 Prologue late March. June 12 will further boost sales for PS3 with MGS 4 launch.



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All the people citing GT5:P numbers in JPN, who know that does not include the dl copies right?



Prologue regionally will do very well in Europe probably easily reaching over a million units in the first week. However in North America I suspect the title will fall on deaf ears struggling to reach four hundred thousand, and in Japan nobody is going to take any notice at all. This title will struggle to break one and a half million units globally.

Motorstorm a launch title on the PS3 one of the best in the first year has yet to break three million in sales. Yes it was a good title, because the PS3 had a lousy first year on the market. No racer in recent memory has broken a hundred thousand in Japan. I actually think Excite Truck has come the closest. The game then splits between Others and North America with the Other region retaining greater sales.

Basically the racing market on this console is smaller then is expected, and will be supremely front ended. The result probably being that the title will not exceed three million units this year. The larger racing market on the 360 might have done better with this title. However being that it is on the PS3 and the consoles past performance in spite of the titles pedigree. We are not going to see ungodly sale. Two million in the first month, and another million throughout the rest of the year at best.

I wouldn't consider the title a bomb. The only thing that can blow up here are unrealistic expectations. Which some posters undoubtedly have. Visions of a major console seller, or a slayer of the sales giants. This title is relegated to the B list of sellers. With the likes of a Mass Effect. I think we will find that the likes of an Assassins Creed will end up being a better seller. Even having better legs.



Auron said:
All the people citing GT5:P numbers in JPN, who know that does not include the dl copies right?

You're right, but it seems that the number of downloads wasn't big. Poliphony Digital has the game's sales at 250k as of December 2007, so it should include downloads:

http://www.polyphony.co.jp/english/list.html

It seems that GT5:P didn't do well in Japan. It will do much better in Europe though.

 



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Dodece said:
Prologue regionally will do very well in Europe probably easily reaching over a million units in the first week. However in North America I suspect the title will fall on deaf ears struggling to reach four hundred thousand, and in Japan nobody is going to take any notice at all. This title will struggle to break one and a half million units globally.

Motorstorm a launch title on the PS3 one of the best in the first year has yet to break three million in sales. Yes it was a good title, because the PS3 had a lousy first year on the market. No racer in recent memory has broken a hundred thousand in Japan. I actually think Excite Truck has come the closest. The game then splits between Others and North America with the Other region retaining greater sales.

You realize GT5P is already out in Japan and has sold 220k retail plus an unknown number of downloads.  Ridge Racer 7 also sold 152k in Japan



NJ5 said:

You're right, but it seems that the number of downloads wasn't big. Poliphony Digital has the game's sales at 250k as of December 2007, so it should include downloads:

http://www.polyphony.co.jp/english/list.html

It seems that GT5:P didn't do well in Japan. It will do much better in Europe though.

 


no offence, but i don't see how that link has proven anything. i'm not saying you're wrong, or that it doesn't include downloads, but there is no indication that the list includes downloads.