Zelda
Pikmin 4
Luigi's Mansion
Smash IV
DQXI
3D Mario
Animal Crossing

I'm going to take a guess and say a version of FFXV and Deus Ex will be with in the launch window.

I think Nintendo will go balls to the wall because they have no choice. If NX falters in year 1, then it's probably curtains as a hardware maker for Ninty. If they can get through year 1 with a solid userbase, then at least they are in the dance.

Legend of Zeruda, Pikmin 4, Super Mario NX Galaxy, Smash Bros. NX, Splatoon 2, Mario Kart 9, Animal Crossing NX, Mario Maker 2.0.

All in year 1.

2D Mario sells well but isn't a console seller -- which is what Nintendo needs a lot of in the NX's first year.  It's the same thing with something like Tomodachi Life or Cooking Mama back in the 7th gen; they're good selling, impulse buy games that people get after they've bought a console to fill their gaming libraries or kill time with while they wait for an anticipated game to come out.  I doubt many people looked at NSMBU at launch and thought to themselves "I gotta get me a Wii U".

I'd say Zelda, Pikmin 4,  a racing game (either F-Zero or Diddy Kong Racing) and ports of Mario Maker, Smash and Splatoon at launch.  During the middle of the year,  titles like Luigi's Mansion 3, Retro's game, a couple of unannounced and significant 1st and 2nd party games culminating with Animal Crossing as their big fall title and a true 3D Mario game for the holidays.  I also think they'll reveal Splatoon 2 at E3 in 2017 and release it in the 1st half of 2018.

You cannot just disonnect sales and impact. Sales causes impact aka good publicity.  It does not matter if it uses Ultra HD graphics with amazing visuals. What sells games are not it's amazing graphics.  The game itself is what sells the game.  What sells a system are good games. Also there is no history of 3D mario ever giving any kind of impact minus Mario 64.

Also yes I do except people to buy a Wii U for HD 2D mario. The game caused the  original Wii to have a record sales month. At lauch the only game that was selling of any notice was Nintendoland (Was bundled) and NSMBWiiU. Since games sells systems I think it is obvious what was selling the Wii U at launch. Believe it or not but there are people out there who care less about showcasing a system's graphics and more on fun games. 3D mario does not and probably will not ever sell systems like 2D mario                 

    2D mario IS a HUGE system seller. 
On NPD December 2009 the Wii broke the  record for most systems sold in a month ever.  Now what was the Wii's best selling game? It was NSMBWii. The game ended up putting the Wii up YOY for awhile in the 1st half of 2010. Then when the Wii U launched, 2D mario struck again.  Look here at the Wii U's 3rd week. Who do you see selling software on the Wii U? Let's see there is Nintendoland and oh NSMBWiiU. Nothing even comes close expect for the game that was bundled.  So yes there are people out there who see 2D mario and say "I want a Wii U"

You are totally wrong if you think that some 2D platformer (ever Mario) can be system seller today, but you will definitely have lotsa people who would actually buy new Nintendo console for Mario Galaxy 3 or some different 3D Mario game, not onother 2D Mario.

Also you are totally wrong if you think NSMBU and Nintendo Land sold Wii U, at launch only hard cores Nintendo fans bought Wii U and that has nothing with launch games that were atualy very weak. Right after launch Wii U sales become terrible, because no one except Nintendo hardcores didn't want to buy brand new console to play 2D Mario and Nintendo Land, people buy consoles for much bigger games, games like 3D Mario, 3D Zelda, Mario Kart, Smash Bros...games that are realy system sealers.

Again, 3D Mario is far bigger game that has much stronger impact and that brings lots attention of industry, you cant say that for any 2D platform game even for 2D Mario, thats why is more important to have 3D Mario game at launch or in 1st year of console than having 2D Mario. Basically you can say some thing for 3D Zelda, 2D Mario is selling better than Zelda, but Zelda brings huge attention of industry to console and not just of Nintendo fans, and always is one of best games of whole generation, something similar could be said for 3D Zelda also.

Launching Wii U without big game was terrible decision, Nintendo will definitely want to have much better launch lineup with NX, that means 3D Mario not just onother 2D platformer.

Iam 100% confident we will have 3D Mario in 1st year of NX and that we will not have new 2D Mario game in 1st year (exept maybe port of Mario Maker).

So you want them to throw out everything in the first year so they have nothing for 2018? Bad idea.

And how did you reach that conclusion?

Animal Crossing,Splatoon,2D Mario,a Mario spinoff and Kirby could all release in 2018,that's 5 games right there, not to mention that they could always have a 3rd party studio work on something,they could bring out some remakes and we don't know how many games changed mid-development from the Wii U to the NX, besides they need a strong first year,one of the reason that the Wii U failed was because of the lack of games in it's first year.

I think you forgot that they are still working on some unannounced Wii U Games (which was confirmed by Iwata) and that their home console output is like 6 Games a year, not 20. If you really expect that many AAA Games then you will clearly be disappointed.

Well they might still be working on 1/2 smaller bugdet games,if even that,for Wii U but that might be it ,also weren't you the guy that a couple of weeks ago made a thread about how the Wii U was getting atleast 8 new games for the upcoming year or was it just unannouced games I honestly don't remember if it was for next year or game to be announced at E3,if you were and it was about games launching next year then how did they go from a bare minimum output of 8 games to an output of 6?

First things first I won't be dissapointed if most of my list is wrong or if I get nothing about it right(apart from the confirmed Zelda HD), I just give a plausible prediction since Nintendo most likely wants as many games as possible in the first year of the NX.

Now out of my list of a possible 14 games(not 20 btw) there are 2/3 ports of already released games so even if you count them as AAA games the dev cycle for these games is alot shorter and simpler than new game and a port of a game that it's already in development,then there is a party game and a small spinoff so not sure how those could be considerate AAA games, after those I put BG&E2 and a Platinum game so these are made by 3rd party so they don't really count towards Nintendos output of games, and these are also 2 games that I said that might not release next year and if Ubisoft didn't want Destructoid to remove the article regarding BG&E beign NX exclusive, I wouldn't even mentioned.

Fire Emblem NX was one of the games that I said it might not launch next year but the ip is now considered a major ip for Nintendo so having it in the 1st year of NX might be something they want to do, I think that Luigi's Masion 3 started development as a Wii U game but was pushed to the NX and after the sales of Dark Moon I would be more suprised than dissapointed if LM3 isn't released on the 1st year of the NX,Pikimin 4 much like LM3 probably started out as a Wii U game but was moved to the NX with this one it would only suprise me if it was a Wii U exclusive.

Retro's last game was TF and that lauched in Feb'14 after beign delayed most likely so they could have a game launching in 2014 before MK8 and if the rumours are true then they started working on a new game in Aug'14  so expecting there game to be released in Sep'17 is pretty reasonable.

And finnaly unless the entire MK8 team worked on the DLC,witch I very much doubt,the next MK should launch next year,because MK since the DS as been launching every 3 years,and the same can be said for 3D Mario the last one was in 2013 and since Galaxy they have released a new one every 3 years.