palou said:
While Miitomo will without a doubt be able to cover its production costs, it is, by design, unable to access the largest part of the mobile market.
The app attempts to obtain small amounts from a large amount of people, but cannot capitalize suffiecently on any developping addiction to the game.
Top grossing apps generally target a small amount of people, unable to control their addiction. These have to give the player options to continuously progress, (for which one has to pay for), options which are objectively better in the game than what you currently have. People with personality issues (self-esteem, etc...) will then be tempted to spend increasing amounts to somehow distinguish themselves from the masses, and gain false recognition. A well designed game will temporarily let you feel a sense of achievement, and progressively match you up with people equally having purchased the same options, which regives incensitive to spend further amounts. A cognitive bias that the person has against losing money (having already spent a certain amount in the game, people have difficulty abandonning their investments, and can be tricked into spending even greater sums.)
This buisness model can quite frequently get thousands of dollars from the target population. Miitomo, on the other hand, will find it hard to get much more than 10 out of anyone. The problem is that after a purchase, the customer is satiated. The costumes that you have are objectively identical in value. The cognitive bias against loss will, in this case, quite in the contrary, encourage the user to buy nothing further for some time, as the person will attempt to justify the value of the purchase by using the costume longer.
Thus, it is quite impossible for the app ever to reach the top grossing spots of the mobile market, matter not the popularity. If Nintendo entered the buisness to get their share of the massive amounts currently circulating, a drastic change in the nature of the purchase options will need to be made in upcoming games.
Discuss.
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Have you tried Miitomo?
There are rewards and levelling up for changing costumes and building up your wardrobe. If you want to place other people's mii's in photographs, you have to dress them from your wardrobe, so you need enough to go around. The stock in the shop changes each day, so plenty of chance for a unique look. There are minigames that give you the chance to win exclusive garments - tickets to play these games are either earned within the app or more coins bought with real money.
Levelling up also brings in more points, which can be accumulated for discounts on games and to buy games outright. It should be noted that Miitomo points can be combined with MyNintendo Platinum points to do this.
I can't comment on how successful this strategy will be, but your assumption on Miitomo's likelihood for profitability so far is based on incomplete information.
It's also worth noting that Nintendo are using the app more to grab the attention of the userbase they lost, by knocking on the door of the devices these people are now playing with. They've linked to FB and Twitter, expanded the Friend functions to invite Friends of Friends, and have removed censorship.
Miitomo is not a game. It's a curious take on a social app, and it seems to me Nintendo are gambling on its quirkiness to drive its popularity. It's still in its infancy, and it's too early to say how much of a hit it will be. However, I don't doubt they'll add more content and expand its compatibility with other social apps as it goes along.
