Download media wont become the norm for awhile. Seriously, where is there any evidence at all that downloads will take off? Music is not the same as movies at all. On top of that, EVERYONE would need high speed internet and blazing fast speeds.
That would mean upgrades for all cable providers, readily available at all houses internationally. Then you have to convince everyday people to RENT movies on limited HDD with no portable copy, overcome the fear of HDD failures, and the issues with digital rights management. A single song getting pirated is a lot different than a entire movie.
There are just too many things in the way to make digital downloads a global thing. Its not even like the infrastructure is fast enough, stable enough, widely available enough as it is, but then you have to convince people that downloads are practical. I would say its atleast another 10 years off.