All I know is that I wouldn't buy a wiiu/nx, but would buy Mario and Zelda if they were good and available on ps4. Xenoblade, Bayonetta, and Pokemon too.

For one, arcade is 100% irrelevant to the discussion, so im just going to ignore that part.

Barely any of those games listed are huge, how much did the best selling entry of those games sell? Ill give you Pro Evo, that was pretty big back in the PS2 era, but the rest? 1-2 million sales is not huge.

Im talking about games like Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Mario platformers, etc. Games that sell 5+ million every time and have sold 10+ million. Even spinoffs of these games sell in the millions.

And people are forced to buy Nintendo games? Possibly worst argument ever, people buy Nintendo consoles to play Nintendo games, not the other way around. 

Thats fine, of course there are certain people who would but which Nintendo franchises will see massive gains by going 3rd party?

If their games dont see notable growth than there is little reason to go 3rd party.

In order for me to be convinced that a game will have significant growth than i would need to see games in that genre do well on competitors devices.

LittleBig Planet Karting sold less than 1 million on an 80+ million install base compared to MK8 selling 7+ million on a 12 million install base.

Something like 80% of retail sales on PS4/XB1 consist of shooter/sports/racing/action games. I just dont see any type of evidence that suggests many Nintendo games would see a notable increase in sales.

Well there's also the fact that the existing Nintendo hardware buyers would likely then either buy a PS4/XB1 or turn to those platforms to buy the Nintendo games they were buying previously. On top of regular people that buy those games. 

There are games in similar genre-types to what Nintendo offers but they are often knock-offs of what Nintendo does at a lower quality, the real deal would likely sell more. IE: Mario Kart would probably sell a lot more than LBP Karting, 3D Mario a lot more than Knack. 

I think Zelda would do better multiplat as well because there are a lot of people who grew up with this franchise who now play on other systems. 

There's a large "lost Nintendo community" out there, people who grew up on the NES/SNES/N64/GCN who have become alienated from Nintendo but do have a PS4 or XB1 or PC. I have several friends like this. 

The main issue with going third party is losing licensing fee revenue.

Aside from the Wii U every Nintendo platform, even the GameCube, had significant amount of licensing revenue from third parties.

It doesn't even matter if a third party game sells or not ... that copy of Barbie's Dream Adventure sitting in the $10 discount bin for Wii or 3DS at your local Wal-Mart? Guess what? Nintendo already made $6-$10 for that copy of the game whether it sells or not because the publisher had to pay that fee just to have it manufactured. 

And how well does Disgaea sell? Which is exactly my point, there is nothing that suggests a game like Fire Emblem would sell notably better by going to devices where its genre is niche.

Same goes for other Nintendo franchises, would Mario Party, Pikmin, Captain Toad, Kirby, Yoshi, Donkey Kong, Animal Crossing, Tomodachi, Paper Mario, Pokemon Mystery Dungeon, etc. sell notably better on PS/XB?

They lose royalties plus having to pay royalties plus the loss of hardware/accessory profits (outside of 2-3 years this generation hardware has been profitable for Nintendo) which means their games would need to sell much better in order to make up for all this.

Personally, I don't think any first party should go third party. Nintendo has their own niche because they not only create their quality software, but they experiment such as using the Gamepad, the touch screen, the motion controls, or the C stick and such throughout their development history. Plus if they were to go third party, they would probably have to cut down significant amount of jobs within their ranks, even having smaller studios.

I like Nintendo being able to have creative freedom not only in game design, but in controls and gameplay. Wii Sports and Brain Age would never happen if they went third party because no one would find them enticing unless they utilized a certain element that makes them unique and, ultimately, successful. They may not push graphical boundaries, but they can sure create unique gameplay and controller experiences. I mean, using the Gamepad for Splatoon make shooting intuitive and fun. To keep score on the fly with the screen and mark locations to Squid Jump while using motion controls to aim, never had so much fun with a shooter in my life.

And how much better would these franchises sell on PS/XB? How big is this "lost Nintendo community"?

With the exception of MK Wii, Mario Kart sells about 7-10 million on consoles, how much would Mario Kart 9 sell on PS/XB/PC? Something like 12 million? 15 million? 20 million?

3D Zelda sells about 5 million give or take (OoT-7.6, MM-3.4, WW-4.6, TP-7.2, SS-4.1), how much would it sell on PS/XB/PC? 8 million? 12 million? 15 million?

These games need to sell ALOT more than they currently do to make up for increased dev costs, lack of 3rd pary royalties, having to pay royalties, loss of profits from hardware/accessories.