A ton of remasters, Zelda and 3D metroid (unannounced).

Wii Sports was incredibly strong launch title, we know huge number of Wii owners were casuals, those casuals both Wii on first place because of Wii Sports, so we can say Wii Sports brought casuals to Wii and Zelda TP brought core gamers. Mario 3D game is far better launch title in any case than LM3, and with Zelda U would make perfect combination.

Thing is that 3DS and Wii U are both Nintendo platforms, PS4 and X1 are not, and you cant ignore fact that 3DS has almost 5x bigger user base than Wii U. If you want to compare sales of Luigi Mansion and 3D Mario game on same platform, you have GC where worst 3D Mario game sold twice better than Luigi's Mansion, or 3DS where Mario 3D Land sold 2.5x better than Dark Moon.

Nintendo needs to convince people to buy their new platform after Wii U, one of reasons they need is great launch titles, 3D Mario and Zelda would be huge. 3D Mario and Zelda on launch can't cannibalize each other sales because they are totally different games, one is very popular platformer with mass appealing and another is adventure game for core game, also we talking about launch of console and people are buying more games on launch.

Wii Sports only became a thing when the Wii recieved an early surge from TP and good marketing, no one and I say no one expected it to be big I remember it well. The game suited casuals yes but as a launch game not much was expected from it and a lot of it hinged on the blue ocean plan taking off. 

I don't care if PS4 and X1 are non Nintendo consoles because the point still stands, LM2 has outsold many first party games on bigger userbases, even on the same very platform it outsold all Zelda games and for being only the second game in the series it's done highly well to reach almost 5m which is why I call into question your niche comment all together. LM on the GC was a new IP and sold around 4m and was the 5th best selling game on the platform even outselling AC, the fact that it's shown consistency proves its worth as well as show each installment in the series is not a big risk unlike a game like Metroid, fact is it can be even bigger with a push like what Splatoon had and if the rumour is true Nintendo is acknowledging it can be a potential strong IP in future.

Convincing people to buy the platform doesn't equate to having 3D Mario at launch it equates to communicating the platform's value to the consumer, N64 had the most influential 3D Mario at launch and got hammered while DS, Wii and 3DS left 3D Mario at home and did far better. X1 had a slow launch but went on to beat out the Wii U, it's not the launch that's Nintendo's problem it's what comes after. The marketing and dealing with the droughts, launches have never been a problem for Nintendo this is why their biggest IP in Mario isn't present at launch in recent gens and has become a holiday title. 3D MArio and Zelda can cannabalize each other as well they'd be competing with each other if launched at the same time, why do you think Nintendo doesn't release tier 1 first party titles together.

Nobody expected that Wii Sports will be huge game, but also nobody expected that Wii will be so popular. Wii success is very tied to Wii Sports. Thing with Wii Sports is that on commercials, in stores or at friends house, anyone could see that is very fun to play that game and that anyone could played it without any problem.

We talked about comparison of 3D Mario game and not about comparison with other games, I give you two example where 3D Mario sold much better than LM on same platform.

N64 had solid sales espacily if we know it was crippled buy cartridge format, and M64 is actuale reason why people bought console at beginning, without M64 at launch sales of N64 would be much worse. You do realize N64 sold 12m on instal base of 33m, basically same like Mario Galaxy 1 on Wii. I am not saying that console cant have great launch and 1st year without 3D Mario, point is that with 3D Mario game console will definitely have much better launch and 1st year than without such a big game. Comparing X1 or PS4 platforms with Nintendo platforms doesn't make sense today, because today people buying those platform for 3rd party games on first place, while people still buying Nintendo platforms on first place for Nintendo games, that's why Nintendo platform needs great launch and 1st year games, Wii U has terrible launch and 1st year games. Espacily they need strong launch exclusives when competition is so strong and whend they launchig new platform in middle of generation, Nintendo need to attract attention at launch with great games despite PS4 and X1, and new 3D Mario game always attract lotsa attention same like new 3D Zelda, best thing about those two games are they aiming different types of consumers. Again, I am not talking about holiday season of 2017 or 2018, I am not saying Nintendo will release two huge IPs together in those seasons, I talking about launch of new platform, you cant compare launch with any other time of console life, also people buying multiple games on launch of new console. So no, 3D Zelda and 3D Mario at launch will not cannibalize each other sales.

At end, its very simple, Wii U is huge faile, NX will probably be launched at end of this year in middle of generation with competition like X1 that is selling better than Xbox360 and with PS4 that is insanely popular and have one of bests sale ever for console, if Nintendo want to NX have some chance to succeed on market they need huge launch titles (huge launch and 1st year titles are just one of things Nintendo needs to do if they want to NX succeed, others things are great marketing, good price point...), they need to bring all attention to itself and that people start saying "look those great games on new Nintendo platform", nobody said that on Wii U launch, in current situation best effect will be with 3D Mario and 3D Zelda.

Yet my point still stands as early on TP gave the console an early drive for it to get going, TP sold 500k or so in the first 24hrs of Wii being launch which means every console sold that day was bought with it so again you've said nothing that disproves my point in Zelda being a good launch title.

N64 was the successor to the SNES and showed a 20m or so drop over its predecessor, M64 would be the reason people bought the console because at launch the was hardly anything else. People buying PS and Xbox for third party titles is a null and void point because we're comparing sales of software to the userbase size not why people are buying the platform so again my point still stands.

People buying Nintendo platforms for first party really, why do you think people bought the Wii U? The same reason as they did every other Nintendo platform, Wii U had a better first year line up than all the 8th gen consoles it's not the first party games that were the issue it was other factors. You keep banging on about launch this and that yet Nintendo has always been fine at launch, even the Wii U sold out at launch the problem has always been what comes after, great first party has always been present and 3D Mario doesn't change certain fundamental problems. The fact that X1 despite being beaten out by the PS4 can recover from a slow launch year highlights the's a fundamental issue that current first party titles alone can't solve, even PS4 didn't have anything spectacular at launch and took a month or 2 to get going.

I'll say it again so you get it yes Zelda and Mario will cannabalize each other, the majority of people don't buy multiple games at launch so will opt for one meaning the two would compete against each other, Nintendo also wouldn't want to fire all their strong cards straight away and we already know launch isn't the problem for them. Zelda with LM showcasing the system is a perfect balance, one big name game being present as a reason to get the platform with another notable showing what the platform can do, they can then have Mario release during another period when a strong game is needed like the following spring to reduce droughts.

I never said Zelda TP wasn't good launch title, I think TP Zelda and Wii Sports were perfect combination for launch.

If there was not M64 almost nobody would both N64, people bought N64 because M64 was great game, so 3D Mario was great launch title.

Like I wrote, Wii U had too many problems and thats why failed, but week launch titles and 1st year games are definitely one of them. Fact is that on launch only huge Nintendo fans bought Wii U despite weak launch games, right after launch sales were catastrophic, you have plenty of people that didnt want to buy console just to play Nintendo Land and NSMBU, and you can bet no one outside bigest Nintendo fans were impresed buy Nintendo Land and game that basically looked like HD version of Wii game, and that was at end of PS3/Xbox 360 life, now situation is quite different, NX will arrive when PS4/X1 are most alive, and they need very strong launch and 1st year titles.

Wii Sports was packed in with the console so it couldn't cannabalize TP's sales in anyway possible so that comment makes no sense same with Nintendo Land and NSMBU. Games being very different doesn't mean they can't cannabalize each other as they're still first party games not games from different companies, this is why Nintendo doesn't release strong sellers or games of equal standing at the same time as they would compete against eachother, it's more business sense to release them at different times so the maximum amount of buyers can get both games with out the possibility of someone only opting for one at that time. Many fanbases overlap.

The Wii U's launch wouldn't have mattered if the wasn't a drought that came soon after it and if the console was marketed and priced well, if the Wii U was ultra cheap and marketed like the Wii it would have sold better following launch. Consumers didn't even know Wii U was a new console, replace the U with a 2 could have helped in a big way as well, even with a 3D Mario game at launch Wii U would have fallen into the same problems and this is what you're not acknowledging. Nintendo can't afford to be firing two big cards at once as they have to operate under the assumption that third parties will never competely back them like the competition, they don't need a huge bang they need a long term plan and one that involves spreading out big releases through out a year and good marketing.

Well we dont know if same game will be bundled with NX, also Wii U Basic wasn't packed with game. Again, you cant compare launch of console with any other time of life in console, it doesn't matter if they are 1st party games, they are totally different type of games, and on launch you need different types of games to attract different types of gamers, that's why 3D Mario and Zelda would be great.

Wii U launch window was matter beacuse like I already wrote, no one cared about Nintendo Land and NSMBU exept hard core Nintendo fans, no one of that games were reason for anybody to buy console. I acknowledge that Wii U had huge numbers of problems, and bad launch titles and 1st year titles are just one part of those problems why Wii U failed (bad name, terrible and misunderstood marketing, price, bad launch titles and software drought...), so even 3D Mario World like launch title wouldn't save Wii U, but would definitely help Wii U to perform better than it did, because Wii U would have one must have title in first 6 months of life. We dont know if Nintendo can afford to have two huge titles because we know what exactly Nintendo preparing for 1st year, but if they can afford that, they definitely need to that because they can't afford another bad launch lineup after Wii U, espacily in middle of generation with very high popularity of PS4, like I wrote so NX needs to arrive with huge bang on market.

The NX is on the horizon and Nintendo has changed nothing this latest direct shows that the company hasn't changed shi* and at this point the NX might as well be the Wii 3.

Yet my point still stands in that both games would compete against eachother, 1st party makes the point even more relevant, since you're bringing up different types of gamers it further backs my point as pairing Mario and Zelda would only serve to interest Nintendo fans who tbh Zelda would have already got their attention.

Launch window was a problem because the was no follow up plain and simple, they only had MH3 in the 8 months until Pikmin 3 arrived, of all Nintendo's issues launch has never really been one of them. 3DW would not have made any difference to the situation because the other problems already held the U back, look at the 3DS it also had a slow launch but recovered fine because the was a follow up and a plan b, in fact 3DS' launch was weaker than Wii U's but the former was handled far better. This highlights it's not the launch they need to get right it's what comes after and that's what they've been lacking compared to their competitors in regards to home platforms, 3D Mario would not make any difference to the situation.