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Miyamotoo on 16 March 2016
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Wyrdness said:
Miyamotoo said:

Wii Sports was incredibly strong launch title, we know huge number of Wii owners were casuals, those casuals both Wii on first place because of Wii Sports, so we can say Wii Sports brought casuals to Wii and Zelda TP brought core gamers. Mario 3D game is far better launch title in any case than LM3, and with Zelda U would make perfect combination.

Thing is that 3DS and Wii U are both Nintendo platforms, PS4 and X1 are not, and you cant ignore fact that 3DS has almost 5x bigger user base than Wii U. If you want to compare sales of Luigi Mansion and 3D Mario game on same platform, you have GC where worst 3D Mario game sold twice better than Luigi's Mansion, or 3DS where Mario 3D Land sold 2.5x better than Dark Moon.

Nintendo needs to convince people to buy their new platform after Wii U, one of reasons they need is great launch titles, 3D Mario and Zelda would be huge. 3D Mario and Zelda on launch can't cannibalize each other sales because they are totally different games, one is very popular platformer with mass appealing and another is adventure game for core game, also we talking about launch of console and people are buying more games on launch.

Wii Sports only became a thing when the Wii recieved an early surge from TP and good marketing, no one and I say no one expected it to be big I remember it well. The game suited casuals yes but as a launch game not much was expected from it and a lot of it hinged on the blue ocean plan taking off. 

I don't care if PS4 and X1 are non Nintendo consoles because the point still stands, LM2 has outsold many first party games on bigger userbases, even on the same very platform it outsold all Zelda games and for being only the second game in the series it's done highly well to reach almost 5m which is why I call into question your niche comment all together. LM on the GC was a new IP and sold around 4m and was the 5th best selling game on the platform even outselling AC, the fact that it's shown consistency proves its worth as well as show each installment in the series is not a big risk unlike a game like Metroid, fact is it can be even bigger with a push like what Splatoon had and if the rumour is true Nintendo is acknowledging it can be a potential strong IP in future.

Convincing people to buy the platform doesn't equate to having 3D Mario at launch it equates to communicating the platform's value to the consumer, N64 had the most influential 3D Mario at launch and got hammered while DS, Wii and 3DS left 3D Mario at home and did far better. X1 had a slow launch but went on to beat out the Wii U, it's not the launch that's Nintendo's problem it's what comes after. The marketing and dealing with the droughts, launches have never been a problem for Nintendo this is why their biggest IP in Mario isn't present at launch in recent gens and has become a holiday title. 3D MArio and Zelda can cannabalize each other as well they'd be competing with each other if launched at the same time, why do you think Nintendo doesn't release tier 1 first party titles together.

Nobody expected that Wii Sports will be huge game, but also nobody expected that Wii will be so popular. Wii success is very tied to Wii Sports. Thing with Wii Sports is that on commercials, in stores or at friends house, anyone could see that is very fun to play that game and that anyone could played it without any problem.

We talked about comparison of 3D Mario game and not about comparison with other games, I give you two example where 3D Mario sold much better than LM on same platform.

N64 had solid sales espacily if we know it was crippled buy cartridge format, and M64 is actuale reason why people bought console at beginning, without M64 at launch sales of N64 would be much worse. You do realize N64 sold 12m on instal base of 33m, basically same like Mario Galaxy 1 on Wii. I am not saying that console cant have great launch and 1st year without 3D Mario, point is that with 3D Mario game console will definitely have much better launch and 1st year than without such a big game. Comparing X1 or PS4 platforms with Nintendo platforms doesn't make sense today, because today people buying those platform for 3rd party games on first place, while people still buying Nintendo platforms on first place for Nintendo games, that's why Nintendo platform needs great launch and 1st year games, Wii U has terrible launch and 1st year games. Espacily they need strong launch exclusives when competition is so strong and whend they launchig new platform in middle of generation, Nintendo need to attract attention at launch with great games despite PS4 and X1, and new 3D Mario game always attract lotsa attention same like new 3D Zelda, best thing about those two games are they aiming different types of consumers. Again, I am not talking about holiday season of 2017 or 2018, I am not saying Nintendo will release two huge IPs together in those seasons, I talking about launch of new platform, you cant compare launch with any other time of console life, also people buying multiple games on launch of new console. So no, 3D Zelda and 3D Mario at launch will not cannibalize each other sales.

At end, its very simple, Wii U is huge faile, NX will probably be launched at end of this year in middle of generation with competition like X1 that is selling better than Xbox360 and with PS4 that is insanely popular and have one of bests sale ever for console, if Nintendo want to NX have some chance to succeed on market they need huge launch titles (huge launch and 1st year titles are just one of things Nintendo needs to do if they want to NX succeed, others things are great marketing, good price point...), they need to bring all attention to itself and that people start saying "look those great games on new Nintendo platform", nobody said that on Wii U launch, in current situation best effect will be with 3D Mario and 3D Zelda.