Unless the NX turns out to be the second coming of the Wii, the NX has no chance of beating the PS4 in sales. Do you think I was talking about the Wii brand in particular? Unless Nintendo manages to create a phenomenom that attracts a massive casual and core audience (like the original Wii) Nintendo won't be able to beat the PS4 sales with  the NX.

Perhaps but they want to be on top and released the Xone with that mentality. I don't think it's a great business technique to launch a console destined not to win. They should focus on a large userbase of at least 50 million. Because if a unified platform remains at 30 million it could hurt Nintendo.

They can claim a spot on the market, but whether it's a profitable spot is another matter all together.

It looks like Nintendo catering to kids has come back to bite them in the butt as parents can find a lot of that on mobile and tablets.

There will always be a core Nintendo fanbase that will support the systems and buy the games. The most important thing to do is make sure they are covered first. The level of first party support on the WiiU was atrocious.

Handheld sales will be interesting since sales of their handheld have slowed down and the N2DS was a bit lame.

I think their next handheld will have to pull a rabbit out of a hat for it to succeed like it's predecessors in the west. There will always be the core fanbase, but to have kids choosing a handheld over the latest mobile phone that may come with a free VR headset will be tough.

You talking about a new console not being able to beat an older one.

Let me put this in the simplest way possible: Each and every new home console or handheld can outsell any older hardware. The factors that determine if they will or not are variable.

There seems to be 2 versions of NX.

The hybrid tablet / HDMI out version for 2016, and a more traditional console version for 2017.

I feel the hybrid has an instant market. It's more than likely launching alongside or not too far off Pokemon Sun and Moon, and will have special features for those who play Sun and Moon on the new hardware like always. As long as the price is right ($250 or less) they'll launch the hybrid with very strong numbers. I see the hybrid surpassing the sales of the 3DS easily, because handheld is where the majority of Nintendo fans are, it offers a console-like experience via wireless HDMI-out, and hopefully it'll have the majority of features and apps that a 2016 gamer has come to expect of a console.

The NX console; however, is going to have a hard time gaining ground. The PS4 is lead platform this gen, and a mid-life console launch isn't going to change that, and hopefully that's not Nintendo's strategy. The NX console should simply exist to bridge the time between the NX console and it's 2022 successor which would be more inclined to take on the PS5 / XB4 both hardware-wise and technologically.

As long as Nintendo has not only quality, but quantity when it comes to first party games (get a many AAA indie games as possible to re-create old retired franchises like F-Zero, Earthbound, etc...), and gets full 3rd party JP support & at least decent 3rd party west support The NX console will do fine. The NX console will probably be a low seller around 30m - 40m in it's 5 year life cycle (unless it has a hugely successful niche) it's bad in comparison to the PS4 which is already at these numbers, but it's a huge improvement over the Wii U and even GameCube, and puts them back into N64 status, and from there they can grow with it's successor up to 40m - 60m.

Only way for reaching more people than ps4 is giving it for free.
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I dont know about the price tag of the components, but how powerfull they can do with x86(and that could run all thidparty games) at a 100$ or less cheaper than xbox one and ps4?
A supercheap machine that could do everything ps4 do and run cod, mario kart, fifa... Is unrealistic. And also i thing it wouldnt beat ps4.

If the markets change, nintendo just needs to change with it.

If they cant sell their products by catering to kids, they just have to stop doing so.

Theres no reason Nintendo cant make a console that doesnt do so.

Basically this. Nintendo have to be different with the NX, otherwise they will essentially be the second Xbox One fighting against the real Xbox One and PS4. That avenue would be futile and cannot be won considering if the NX launches this year there will be almost 50 million PS4's(ie more than the SNES, Genesis, Dreamcast, Gamecube, original Xbox, N64 etc sold in their entire lifetime each) and maybe 26 million Xbox One's. I think they will try go for the Wii approach again with innovative physical controls and games, a low price point and this time trying to appeal more to third party developers.

Of course they can. But considering the trends we're having this 8th gen (PS4 outselling everyone by a far margain, and both WiiU and 3DS struggling to keep up with their predecessors, specially WiiU) I think it would need a Wii-like hit to have a chance of surpassing the PS4 in sales. Being older or younger hardware isn't as important as it seems, specially when hardware is getting more and more standarized, all consoles are becoming more and more alike.

Everything resets with a new gen.