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Forums - Nintendo - Nintendo Lowers 2016 financial forecast

Miyamotoo said:
OneKartVita said:

The point is if you can get all those on the one platform why would Nintendo fans buy both?  I'd say about 10m Wii U owners by the end of the gen will also own 3DS. Why would they spend a fortune buying both.  If they put all games on both straight away you're losing sales.  On top of that people are moving away from dedicated handhelds to smartphones so there will be a lot more lost sales.  

 

Bottom line is they won't succeed without 3Rd party support.  Because Nintendo on their own will not grow gen over gen.  They will decrease and their profits from consoles won't increase. 

First you assuming that almost every Wii U owner has 3DS also, thats not true because handheld and console gaming are not same, they are very different, so even with same games (but definitely some will be some exclusives) some people will still buy both devices, especially if home console and handheld have heavy integration. Also you talking only about Nintendo fans, but what about people that are not Nintendo fans but with unified platform they consider Nintendo handheld or home console much more attractive than before because they have much higher number of games on single device.

Yes, for bigger mass appealing NX needs 3rd party support.

The problem is the dedicated handheld market is dead outside of Japan.  It doesn't have a long and positive future.  Kids want an iPhone or a tablet nowadays instead.  And out of the roughly 15m that bought the Wii U I'd bet at least 10m have the 3DS. 



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Miyamotoo said:
Ruler said:

Sony but not PlayStation devision

 

Actually I referd to PS division not whole Sony company.

Where did you get your Microsoft numbers from?
they never reported operating income for the gaming division seperately.

Only gross margin. And even that gross margin did not include all parts of gaming



OneKartVita said:

The problem is the dedicated handheld market is dead outside of Japan.

Of the roughly 60 million 3DS units sold, nearly 40 million are from outside of Japan.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
OneKartVita said:

The problem is the dedicated handheld market is dead outside of Japan.

Of the roughly 60 million 3DS units sold, nearly 40 million are from outside of Japan.

Look at software sales outside Japan.  They don't paint a healthy picture the last few years for dedicated handhelds.  And that includes the vita.  The market is dying because there is no demand and Nintendo on their own cannot sustain the market on their own in the west.  

 

To their credit they make a good effort but it's just not going to happen. 



You're missing the point. The 3DS did good but not the last few years. The market completely moved on mid gen. There was a big potential market when the 3DS launched but there won't be when the NX launches.



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RolStoppable said:
OneKartVita said:
You're missing the point. The 3DS did good but not the last few years. The market completely moved on mid gen. There was a big potential market when the 3DS launched but there won't be when the NX launches.

The last few years most of Nintendo's high profile games were on the Wii U, so the 3DS had to play second fiddle. The 3DS wasn't healthy to begin with (hence the early big price cut), so when it ceased to be the focus of Nintendo's top teams, its sales weren't going to remain stable or get better.

Well splatoon sold better than almost anything they would have pulled off.  The point is even if they dumped one then it's not enough.  If all games go on both then overall hardware sales suffer because their hardcore fans no longer need to buy both.  And I firmly believe a large chunk of their potential market has moves onto smartphones. 



OneKartVita said:
RolStoppable said:

The last few years most of Nintendo's high profile games were on the Wii U, so the 3DS had to play second fiddle. The 3DS wasn't healthy to begin with (hence the early big price cut), so when it ceased to be the focus of Nintendo's top teams, its sales weren't going to remain stable or get better.

Well splatoon sold better than almost anything they would have pulled off.  The point is even if they dumped one then it's not enough.  If all games go on both then overall hardware sales suffer because their hardcore fans no longer need to buy both.  And I firmly believe a large chunk of their potential market has moves onto smartphones. 

So instead of responding to the post I wrote to you addressing this exact thing, our going to repeat what you already said to someone else? Makes sense.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
OneKartVita said:

Well splatoon sold better than almost anything they would have pulled off.  The point is even if they dumped one then it's not enough.  If all games go on both then overall hardware sales suffer because their hardcore fans no longer need to buy both.  And I firmly believe a large chunk of their potential market has moves onto smartphones. 

So instead of responding to the post I wrote to you addressing this exact thing, our going to repeat what you already said to someone else? Makes sense.

I've numerous people replying to me in 2 threads about similar things and I'm replying in between matches of rocket league as the next game loads.  Hard to keep track.  What did you say? 



OneKartVita said:
zorg1000 said:

So instead of responding to the post I wrote to you addressing this exact thing, our going to repeat what you already said to someone else? Makes sense.

I've numerous people replying to me in 2 threads about similar things and I'm replying in between matches of rocket league as the next game loads.  Hard to keep track.  What did you say? 

OneKartVita said:
zorg1000 said:

That's not the same thing at all. Wii U would be a more attractive purchase if it had Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Luigi's Mansion, Kid Icarus, Fire Emblem, Monster Hunter, etc. just like 3DS would be a more attractive purchase if it had Splatoon, Mario Maker, Xenoblade X, Pikmin, Bayonetta, Nintendo Land, etc.

The point is if you can get all those on the one platform why would Nintendo fans buy both?  I'd say about 10m Wii U owners by the end of the gen will also own 3DS. Why would they spend a fortune buying both.  If they put all games on both straight away you're losing sales.  On top of that people are moving away from dedicated handhelds to smartphones so there will be a lot more lost sales.  

 

Bottom line is they won't succeed without 3Rd party support.  Because Nintendo on their own will not grow gen over gen.  They will decrease and their profits from consoles won't increase. 

You aren't factoring in people who own neither a 3DS or Wii U that may buy at least one NX sku.

Lets use the 2015 releases as an example, lets say someone wanted to play Monster Hunter 4, Majora's Mask 3D & Happy Home Designer but those 3 games weren't enough for them to buy a 3DS, lets say they are also interested in Splatoon, Super Mario Maker & Xenoblade X but again those 3 games aren't enough to buy a Wii U. Would that person be more likely to purchase a single device that plays all 6 of those games?

Another factor that you aren't considering is the increase of software sales, certain games have been hindered by the fact they are stuck on a platform with a small userbase. Splatoon & Mario Maker are big successes and will each sell 5+ million but what if they had the entire 3DS audience to sell to as well? These games could very well sell over 10 million.

A third major factor is that Nintendo can diversify their lineup by not having to make 2 separate entries of many franchises. Instead of releasing a Mario Kart title for the handheld then 3 years later another Mario Kart for the console, they can release one and support it with DLC then release a new IP 3 years later. This potentially leads to more Splatoon-like scenarios of new, exciting franchise being created which increases the devices appeal.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

What you're not factoring in is that it's simple mathematics. If both consoles have the same library a lot will settle with one console instead of 2.

And releasing two separate skus of games boosts it's sales. Many Nintendo fans buy the handheld and the console editions. now they won't in many cases.