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Forums - Nintendo - the Wii U is not getting replaced this year, guys

maxleresistant on 17 January 2016

We'll talk about it at the NX launch, later this year



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Thunderbird77 on 17 January 2016
Soundwave said:

If NX is just a "standard" console then I don't see much chance of success for it unless it has some magic wonder controller that changes the industry again.

The benefit of a unified platform isn't just shared games ... it's shared userbase, which matters hugely to developers. If it's a segregated userbase again, that all goes to shit.

When the 3DS sells 50-70 million units it means dick all for the Wii U right? It actually probably hurts the Wii U because developers if they are going to bother with anything Nintendo related will just throw out some low budget 3DS game and call it a day. Why bother with the 15 million selling console when Nintendo has this other 50+ million selling system. 

With a unified structure, the console could have "piggybacked" off the relative success of the portable models to have a large enough userbase (even if Nintendo portables aren't selling like they used to, they're still miles beyond their console division). 

If NX is a separate stand-alone console, then without question it can't even be a priority for Nintendo right now. The 3DS successor (whatever that is) has to be a far larger priority right now above NX, Wii U, and even mobile games, because the 3DS is running on fumes right now and it's exhausted Nintendo's franchise catalog. It will be 5 1/2 years old by this fall and will badly be in need of replacing (yes DS got 6 years, but it was well warranted with 150 million hardware sales, 3DS probably isn't even going to get to half that).

How about games? all nintendo consoles except MAYBE the wii were standard and the most successfull ones had the most great games.





Thunderbird77 on 17 January 2016
PerturbedKitty said:
Soundwave said:

 

I dunno, the lineups for both are pretty poor if you ask me. If Yokai Watch had taken off like Pokemon in the US/Europe ... yeah ok, maybe I could see it, but as is ... no way. 

Supporting the Wii U and 3DS isn't without pitfalls for Nintendo either. The more you support brands that are percieved to be flops or fading stars ... the more your own brand itself becomes infused with that same stink. 

I mentioned this in another thread, but Nintendo has to be wary of that too. The average consumer (not people on this board, just average consumers) ... the more they look at Nintendo and see the Wii U and 3DS ... the worse that is honestly in the long haul. 

Blackberry stuck to their guns and fought the good fight with the Blackberry OS and keyboard-centric phones ... they should be rewarded right? Wrong. They really they're known as a "loser brand" by most average consumers today. There's no medal or cookie in the free market for "trying hard". This isn't 8th grade basketball where everyone gets a ribbon for trying hard. Blackberry could tomorrow make the best smartphone ever with Android app support so it has all the apps and it probably would still flop, because once your brand becomes associated with loser products, eventually people will start to see your company as an undesirable/loser brand in general. 

The longer this generation goes, honestly the worse it is for Nintendo. 

you act like it is complete doom and gloom for nintendo. nintendo is in no way comparable to the stupid ass blackberry people. the difference is that nintendo is ALWAYS going to be around. nintendo is ALWAYS going to make a profit off of every generation. and Nintendo is ALWAYS going to be responsible for the greatest games to come out every generation. just stop with "nintendo needs to do this or else .... and they will forever be irrelevant to the industry"

well they seem to be doing pretty alright for being as irrelevant as they are dont you think? sony couldnt survive as a company selling 12 mil consoles in 3 years, and microsoft would just axe the xbox brand altogether if it were them. and what does nintendo do? theyre profiting off of it. nobody will ever be as good at making money off of video games decade after decade after decade. its just not going to happen. hell, look at some of their software sales. there arent many games on the ps4, for example, that sold as much as mario kart 8, smash bros, splatoon, and mario 3d world.

so just stop. nintendo will be just fine. as always.

THIS infinitum.





umegames on 17 January 2016

Well since they plan to reveal it in June, wii-u sales are going to dramatically drop, heck might even see a price drop in the wii-u at e3 or sooner.



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zorg1000 on 17 January 2016
bigtakilla said:
Soundwave said:

 

Eh, I don't think the 3DS has another year left in its gas tank. Nintendo can't really do much more without it, they've revisioned it up the ying yang and released all their core IP for it. Another Pokemon or Mario is not magically going to boost sales at this point. 

 

Yet the 3ds has the better lineup for this year in my opinion. I'm not blind to the fact that both need replaced, but the lineups for this year for both is fine, and people just assume next year has nothing.

 

The lineup really isn't what's important, it's the sales. 3DS has been declining for a few years now and the upcoming lineup is not going to change that. Here are the 3DS yearly shipments for hardware & software.

FY10-3.61 & 9.43

FY11-13.53 & 36.00

FY12-13.95 & 49.61

FY13-12.24 & 67.89

FY14-8.73 & 62.74

FY15-7.60 & 56.00 (Nintendo forcast)

What will FY16 look like at this rate? 5~ million hardware & sub-50 million software. Wii U has done a relatively consistent 3 million hardware & 20 million software but it's bound to start decling so total sales will be something like 8 million hardware and 60~ million software. Thats not even considering the 7-8 months between the end of FY16 & Holiday 2017 where 3DS/Wii U will even worse. Basically with a Holiday 2017 release, people are asking for Nintendo to basically become irrelevant before releasing a successor.

Edit: and before anyone says 8 million hardware in a year is good, remember that it would be Nintendo's worst yearly shipments since the 80s.



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Thunderbird77 on 17 January 2016
Miyamotoo said:
Thunderbird77 said:
Miyamotoo said:

Who said NX will be BC!?

Wii was BC but again Nintendo release Wii version of Zelda TP even people could play it through BC without problems.

Zelda U is very huge and expensive game, Nintendo will want to use most of it, it would be perfect launch title for new platform, same like was TP great launch title for Wii.

Don't people read? wiimotes couldn't be used to play gamecube games, so nintendo could either include a gc controller with every wii or port TP. being the same hardware also allowed the port to be made fast and cheap. Probably, none of those factors apply here. Wii U successor also having BC, but with the new controller having no problem running wii u games (or at least non gamepad focused games) + different architeture = huge game = waste of resources to port.

First we dont know if NX will have BC, second if NX will have BC we dont know will you be able to play Wii U games with NX controller or you will need Wii U controller, same like GC games on Wii or Wii games on Wii U.

You can bet that resources required to port Zelda U for NX will paid out only on NX launch with Zelda U like launch title, not mentioned sales of game after launch. Nintendo will be stupid to not port their biggest project ever and like seems one of the best Zelda games on complete new platform and make it like launch title and just live it like Wii U exclusive. But Nintendo very likely will port Zelda U for NX and it will be launch title.

Doesn't anyone read here? If for some reason the next contoller can't play all wii u games, at least the non gamepad focused will be playable. Would be stupid to port a game that's already there. People who want to play Zelda U on the wii u successor can simply buy the wii u game either phisically or digitally, no need for an extra controller, like TP gamecube.





Wyrdness on 17 January 2016
Thunderbird77 said:

Doesn't anyone read here? If for some reason the next contoller can't play all wii u games, at least the non gamepad focused will be playable. Would be stupid to port a game that's already there. People who want to play Zelda U on the wii u successor can simply buy the wii u game either phisically or digitally, no need for an extra controller, like TP gamecube.

 


You're kind of missing their point, Nintendo can always do that yes and likely will if Wii U has BC but an NX version seems more likely as like with TP it can be marketed more as an NX game to drive up sales of the latter. Being possibly the biggest and most expensive game the company has created they would more then likely want it to hit as many sales as possible and NX taking off is more important to Nintendo then how many copies it shifts on Wii U, if you have a Wii U now it's very likely you're getting Zelda regardless, an NX port would be more geared to people who don't have a Wii U and these are people who wouldn't want to buy any peripheral to play it if it was required.



Miyamotoo on 17 January 2016
Thunderbird77 said:
Miyamotoo said:
Thunderbird77 said:
Miyamotoo said:

Who said NX will be BC!?

Wii was BC but again Nintendo release Wii version of Zelda TP even people could play it through BC without problems.

Zelda U is very huge and expensive game, Nintendo will want to use most of it, it would be perfect launch title for new platform, same like was TP great launch title for Wii.

Don't people read? wiimotes couldn't be used to play gamecube games, so nintendo could either include a gc controller with every wii or port TP. being the same hardware also allowed the port to be made fast and cheap. Probably, none of those factors apply here. Wii U successor also having BC, but with the new controller having no problem running wii u games (or at least non gamepad focused games) + different architeture = huge game = waste of resources to port.

First we dont know if NX will have BC, second if NX will have BC we dont know will you be able to play Wii U games with NX controller or you will need Wii U controller, same like GC games on Wii or Wii games on Wii U.

You can bet that resources required to port Zelda U for NX will paid out only on NX launch with Zelda U like launch title, not mentioned sales of game after launch. Nintendo will be stupid to not port their biggest project ever and like seems one of the best Zelda games on complete new platform and make it like launch title and just live it like Wii U exclusive. But Nintendo very likely will port Zelda U for NX and it will be launch title.

Doesn't anyone read here?

If for some reason the next contoller can't play all wii u games, at least the non gamepad focused will be playable.

Would be stupid to port a game that's already there. People who want to play Zelda U on the wii u successor can simply buy the wii u game either phisically or digitally, no need for an extra controller, like TP gamecube.

It seem you don't read here.

How you know that!? On Wii you needed GC controller for evre GC game, on Wii U you needed Wii controller for evre Wii game. You totally ignoring those facts.

Again you are assuming that NX will be BC but that is not certain at all. Also NX version will probably have some improvements or difference in comparison with Wii U version.



bigtakilla on 17 January 2016
zorg1000 said:
bigtakilla said:

 

Yet the 3ds has the better lineup for this year in my opinion. I'm not blind to the fact that both need replaced, but the lineups for this year for both is fine, and people just assume next year has nothing.

 

The lineup really isn't what's important, it's the sales. 3DS has been declining for a few years now and the upcoming lineup is not going to change that. Here are the 3DS yearly shipments for hardware & software.

FY10-3.61 & 9.43

FY11-13.53 & 36.00

FY12-13.95 & 49.61

FY13-12.24 & 67.89

FY14-8.73 & 62.74

FY15-7.60 & 56.00 (Nintendo forcast)

What will FY16 look like at this rate? 5~ million hardware & sub-50 million software. Wii U has done a relatively consistent 3 million hardware & 20 million software but it's bound to start decling so total sales will be something like 8 million hardware and 60~ million software. Thats not even considering the 7-8 months between the end of FY16 & Holiday 2017 where 3DS/Wii U will even worse. Basically with a Holiday 2017 release, people are asking for Nintendo to basically become irrelevant before releasing a successor.

Edit: and before anyone says 8 million hardware in a year is good, remember that it would be Nintendo's worst yearly shipments since the 80s.

 

With Nintendo characters right around the corner from being on cell phones, in theaters, and on the tv in animes? I highly doubt irrelevancy will be an issue come next year. In fact, the reality is they will probably be MORE relevant come next year than they are this year.



Conina on 17 January 2016
PerturbedKitty said:

you act like it is complete doom and gloom for nintendo. nintendo is in no way comparable to the stupid ass blackberry people. the difference is that nintendo is ALWAYS going to be around. nintendo is ALWAYS going to make a profit off of every generation. and Nintendo is ALWAYS going to be responsible for the greatest games to come out every generation. just stop with "nintendo needs to do this or else .... and they will forever be irrelevant to the industry"

Has Nintendo made profit of their 8th generation of handhelds & consoles yet? Let's see... they started the 8th gen with the launch of the 3DS end of February 2011 (Japan) and end of March 2011 (worldwide). In the 4.5 years after that (April 2011 - September 2015) they had an operating income loss of 86.4 billion Yen / 1 billion USD. Do you really think they can get the 8th gen profitable before they start their 9th gen?

Yeah, last year they made a profit of 25 billion Yen / 200 million USD, perhaps they can even enhance it this year to 30 billion Yen / 250 million USD if the holiday quarter went well... but will that be enough for the shareholder's expectations?

Even if we ignore the glory years of the DS + Wii combination: from 1990 to 2006 they had no year with profits less than 65 billion Yen (114 billion Yen on average in this time frame), now it has fallen to 25 billion Yen.

 

PerturbedKitty said:

well they seem to be doing pretty alright for being as irrelevant as they are dont you think? sony couldnt survive as a company selling 12 mil consoles in 3 years, and microsoft would just axe the xbox brand altogether if it were them. and what does nintendo do? theyre profiting off of it. nobody will ever be as good at making money off of video games decade after decade after decade. its just not going to happen.

No, they are not.

 

PerturbedKitty said:

hell, look at some of their software sales. there arent many games on the ps4, for example, that sold as much as mario kart 8, smash bros, splatoon, and mario 3d world.

so just stop. nintendo will be just fine. as always.

Yeah, let's take a look on their software sales. Even before the golden DS/Wii years, they managed to sell 100 to 150 million game units per year (all retail). Last year, they barely managed get over 100 million game units. VGC expects the cumulated software sales (DS+3DS+Wii+WiiU) to fall in 2015 compared to 2014, let's hope they are wrong.

 

Hardware sales look even worse. Even before the golden DS/Wii years, they managed to sell at least 22 million hardware per year (home consoles + handhelds). Last year, they were at 12.6 million hardware units, this year probably less than 10 million hardware units and I can't see an upwards trend next year without the NX launch. So no, not "all is fine" for Nintendo "as always".