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Forums - Movies & TV - The Force Awakens Box Office Thread: $1,73B

Insidb on 28 December 2015
thismeintiel said:
Teeqoz said:

I fail to see how people being on a gaming forum has anything to do with wether or not they are "casual" movie-goers. No really. I can see absolutely zero connections there. None.

I think the most important thing to consider about Avatar is that, for the most part, no one cares about that movie.  It's hardly ever talked about amoungst people in movie discusions.  Never quoted.  Never quoted in other movies.  The only time people even bring it up is to talk about how much it made or how much it rips off Fern Gully/Dances With Wolves.  Without the 3D hype, that movie would have made about half of what it did.  And that's how much I expect the sequel to make IF they build some hype up for it, again.

Fern Gully 3D hype train.





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Soundwave on 28 December 2015
thismeintiel said:
Teeqoz said:
LordLichtenstein said:
Soundwave said:

 

I'm just saying the script better be much better the second time around .... if its the same thing as the first one, it's going to make no where close to that much bank IMO. That film has faded from the public conciousness very quickly. 


How would you know? I believe that Avatar got hold of the casual market, therefore it, might seem like it, because the "casual" movie-goer doesn't sit on message boards.

 

I fail to see how people being on a gaming forum has anything to do with wether or not they are "casual" movie-goers. No really. I can see absolutely zero connections there. None.

I think the most important thing to consider about Avatar is that, for the most part, no one cares about that movie.  It's hardly ever talked about amoungst people in movie discusions.  Never quoted.  Never quoted in other movies.  The only time people even bring it up is to talk about how much it made or how much it rips off Fern Gully/Dances With Wolves.  Without the 3D hype, that movie would have made about half of what it did.  And that's how much I expect the sequel to make IF they build some hype up for it, again.

 

I agree. I can't remember the name of a single character from that movie other than Sully and that's only because it's close to "Scully" (Gillian Anderson's character in X-Files). I can't remember any memorable dialogue from it either. 

I don't even "hate" the movie, it was decent enough, but I'll be honest I think Titanic was a far better movie and far more memorable. 

Unless Cameron has invented 4D holograms for Avatar 2, I think it will be very hard for A2 to be as big as some people think. It's the Wii of movies IMO, once the novelty of 3D (waggle) wears off you kinda realize it's not all that special. But the first time you see it, sure, it's enthralling visually. 



StreaK on 28 December 2015
S.Peelman said:

It's upped to 890m worldwide now on BoxOfficeMojo and they're estimating a 178m second weekend, domestic, while the current record for second weekend is 106m by Jurassic World... They're saying Jurassic World needed 24 days to break 550m domestic, while Star Wars will do it in just 10 days... Completely insane. I'd say a billion domestic is a given, Avatar will be left in the dust. It's up to international now and I'm curious about it's China performance in two weeks.

 

Doesn't change the fact that the two films that were able to break both the 1 billion and 2 billion barrier were both Cameron films. And two films that did NOT have an established franchise to back them up. Now THAT is impressive to me! Of course Star Wars is going to do well with its gimmicks and years of history and fanbase.

Also, let's not forget the other sequels have no chance at beating the first in the trilogy as evidenced by the first trilogy and second trilogy (prequels). The first movie ALWAYS does significantly the best. So the sequel, no matter how good, will do 300-400 million less at least.

If Titanic released TODAY with 3D, it would have made 2 billion in the domestic boxoffice. Adjusted for inflation, it already broke the 1 billion dollar barrier domestically. It has like over $4 billion worldwide even.



StreaK on 28 December 2015
DakonBlackblade said:
Lawlight said:
What we're seeing is a massive marketing campaign that was well executed at work.

Theres more than just that, the marketing campaing and keeping the mistery about the plot worked wonders, but theres also nostalgia and the fact that Eps 1-3 sucked at play, if 1-3 had been great I dont think ppl would have this much craving for a new Star Wars, itd sell super well but I dont think it would be this insane. Also the reviews both professionaly and by viewers and the word of mouth have been generaly favorable wich helpped a lot as well.

 


Do you mean episode VII won't outgross Avatar or do you mean Avatar 2?

It can outrgross Avatar, its hard but possible, itll likely do 1 billion on USA alone its left for the rest fo the world to do the other 1.5 billion. Right now it seens liek worldwide itll end at 1.2 or so billion (the movie is strong worldwide but not nearly as strong as it is on the USA rigth now), but who knows, it still ahs to open on China, the chinese might go nuts watching it and send it over the 1.5 bil worldwide mark.

 

Sorry to say, but I doubt the chinese will embrace Star Wars like in the US. Remember, Star Trek didn't cause hysteria so I doubt this will be much different. 

It speaks even mopre voliumes to just how amazing Titanic and Avatar did overseas. Truly, truly amazing numbers for films with no established franchise. I think Avatar will be HUGE in china because of its spiritualness and organic fantasy. It seems more chinese accessible as opposed to a space saga which is far more appealing in the US.

Avatar  truly has that WORLDWIDE appeal that not even STar Wars can match. I always thought Star Wars, primarily, is a vdery american franchise.



 





thismeintiel on 28 December 2015
DakonBlackblade said:
Lawlight said:


Sure that helps too but not as much as marketing. Look at Jurassic World - the franchise was dead but the marketing pushed to a $1.7B movie.

In any case, Star Wars won't have legs outside of the US - it grossed less in RotW than the US during this past week-end. It will need some serious legs in the US and some $500M from China to come close to Avatar.

There are two ways to look at those numbers, its not having legs worldwide or its having crazy legs on USA. Its tending more for the second actualy, its doing great worldwide buts its completly bonkers on USA. Imo itll end around 900M USA and somewhere around 1-1.2 billion worldwide, we can count with 200M at leas from China for sure.

lvetica, sans-serif;">LordLichtenstein said:
Reports are coming in, that the weekend estimate is closer to $150M than $154M.

I wouldn't say it's legs WW are any less crazy.  I mean it made $281M its first weekend, which for most countries that includes sales for 5 days (some were a full 5 days, others include "midnight" screenings from the previous Wed.)  It's now been out for 7 days more and made $265M, reaching $546M.  While it is two days more, it's only a 6% drop.  For the same 5 days, it's at max a 27% drop.  That's damn good.  It's even better than the 38% drop it saw in the US, which includes only 3 days and not 4, like the previous weekend.



 

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StreaK on 28 December 2015
mountaindewslave said:
DakonBlackblade said:

Theres more than just that, the marketing campaing and keeping the mistery about the plot worked wonders, but theres also nostalgia and the fact that Eps 1-3 sucked at play, if 1-3 had been great I dont think ppl would have this much craving for a new Star Wars, itd sell super well but I dont think it would be this insane. Also the reviews both professionaly and by viewers and the word of mouth have been generaly favorable wich helpped a lot as well.

 


Do you mean episode VII won't outgross Avatar or do you mean Avatar 2?

It can outrgross Avatar, its hard but possible, itll likely do 1 billion on USA alone its left for the rest fo the world to do the other 1.5 billion. Right now it seens liek worldwide itll end at 1.2 or so billion (the movie is strong worldwide but not nearly as strong as it is on the USA rigth now), but who knows, it still ahs to open on China, the chinese might go nuts watching it and send it over the 1.5 bil worldwide mark.


------

 

ehhh Star Wars is far from a certainty of breaking a billion in the USA. 850 million or so are some guesstimates people are thinking of. unfortunately Star Wars is performing nowhere near as well internationally as it is domestically.

for this to have any chance of even coming close to the likes of 2.5 billion it would need China to have a giant opening. 

the odds of it beating Avatar worldwide are virtually zero based on the opening last week or two in international markets. again, I'm talking worldwide totals

 

EXACTLY!!!!

This pretty much confirms why I still stand behind the fact that there is no way the original Star Wars outgrossed Titanic (sold more tickets) worldwide. It did more ONLY in the US/NA. Star Wars = $1.4 billion adjusted and Titanic $1.1 billion adjusted. The international numbers are a whole other thing.



Soundwave on 28 December 2015

Ep. VII may not beat Avatar WW, but it's looking like a lock for the domestic crown for sure, and that record could stand for a long, long time.

I don't think Avatar 2 will beat Star Wars VII worldwide either.



StreaK on 28 December 2015
Volterra_90 said:
SecondWar said:
Volterra_90 said:
Go for Avatar! I feel bad to spent movie in that movie, the only way I could redeem myself is something beating it lol.

Why the hate for Avatar?

Bad plot and dialogue and meh acting. There's nothing outstanding about it. I can't deny it's beautiful, yeah, but it fails on everything else. 

Yeah right, Avatar was like the closest thing to a Final Fantasy world in cinema form. Even the love story was very FF-like. Bad acting??? You are REALLY trying hard to make this film look bad and I know you're hated on it because you hate the fact it is #1 for a movie YOU didn't think was too special. LOL. Remember, the world does not revolve around you. Avatar was spectacular and the emotional connection was deep. The two main leads had a very special and deep chemistry that I think resonated with the world like Jack and Rose from Titanic (in the international market at least for sure.)





StreaK on 28 December 2015
Soundwave said:

Ep. VII may not beat Avatar WW, but it's looking like a lock for the domestic crown for sure, and that record could stand for a long, long time.

I don't think Avatar 2 will beat Star Wars VII worldwide either.

 

Titanic will always have MORE ticket sales, though. THAT film to me is still unbeatable in ticket sales. As far as I'm concerned, it is still the #1 movie domestic and worldwide. The $$$ will always change, but not tickets. Titanic will NEVER be topped for a modern day film (90's and beyond.) It was truly something special and deep that appealed to a HUGE target audience.



Soundwave on 28 December 2015
StreaK said:
Volterra_90 said:

Bad plot and dialogue and meh acting. There's nothing outstanding about it. I can't deny it's beautiful, yeah, but it fails on everything else. 

Yeah right, Avatar was like the closest thing to a Final Fantasy world in cinema form. Even the love story was very FF-like. Bad acting??? You are REALLY trying hard to make this film look bad and I know you're hated on it because you hate the fact it is #1 for a movie YOU didn't think was too special. LOL. Remember, the world does not revolve around you. Avatar was spectacular and the emotional connection was deep. The two main leads had a very special and deep chemistry that I think resonated with the world like Jack and Rose from Titanic (in the international market at least for sure.)

The 3D effects resonated worldwide. It also kinda came in a lull of blockbusters, before Disney got the Marvel engine really revved up and LOTR had been retired for a few years so it was a good empty window for Cameron to swoop in. Spider-Man was the big box office giant of the 2000s and it had fizzled with Spider-Man 3.

Jack and Rose's romance resonated worldwide sure. I don't think most people even name the two characters who were the male/female leads in Avatar any more, lol. Not without looking it up. 

Like I said Avatar was to movies what the Wii was to video games. Incredible success at the time, but when the novelty fades off ...