Is it realistic to think the rest of the world is contributing 1.12 million? Seems a little unlikely. Outside the markets listed in the OP it would seem probable that Splatoon is less than 500K in all other markets. So we should be looking at a LTD of about 3.3 million?

I'm surprised that didn't reach 200K (BIU Platinum) in Germany yet (considering that it reached 300K in France). It reached 100K in September and is the all-time best-seller in the German eShop. BIU includes digital for Splatoon and the awards for December are already out.

Well, Mario Kart 8 needed until May 2015 to reach 200K.

Yeah, 300k france, 100k+ Germany, 50k+ UK? Thats 450k, with more and some. Probably 550k-600k Sold minimum (including Australia/NZ), i can see 700k-900k shipped+digital.

Japan is definitely mors than 1.45mil by years end and NoA has to be no less than 1.35mil. We'll see splatoon at least 3.5mil this quarter! Cant wait intill feb 2nd. Have that gold thread with splatoon sales hitting 3mil and 4mil xD

I'm really curious how its legs will hold up from here on out now that support is apparently officially done. I'm expecting Splatoon 2 at launch for NX too so I personally don't see it going too well past 4m. Which is still an insane success of course.

Lets look at everything specifically shall we? I think Ship+digital could possibly be close to, if not over 4mil! But lets break everything down....

US: 849k is retail not including bundles. Digital has to be over 100k, actually you could say over 130k+ (because its over a game that was close to mk8 digital numbers back when 130k was announced)

The bundle was at 140k in Nov, and it should of done well in Dec as WiiU sales doubled from Nov to Dec!

US: Sold between 1.15mil-1.35mil

Japan: We know 1.32mil including digital but it doesn't include digital in Nov/Dec. Possibly 1.35mil-1.40mil

France: Has 300k, we dont know yet if it includes digital... (but lets go with it does)

Germany 100k (it was announced awhile back). Its not passed 200k, but its definitely somewhere between 140k-195k

UK: 50k+?

As for the rest Canada is big, probably what, 150k-200k from them, and RoW at least 200k no? (including Australia/NZ/etc)

That right there puts sold at a minimum of 3.3mil. So between 3.3mil-3.7mil could be Sold. Shipments will easily be 3.5mil+

Splatoon will easily surpass 4mil lifetime my friend. (ship+digital).

Feb 2nd is Nintendo quarterly report, we'll see numbers be no less than 3.5mil!

It depends heavily on how much it hits in that report honestly. Can the game really keep trucking on for another 500k (if we assume it's at 3.5 mil including digital) when the support is dry and there's a clear successor on the way? Considering it's still doing around 50k in just Japan per week...probably, actually. I recant that question. Now I'm wondering if, now that support is done, it can keep trucking to pass MK8. Probably not, but that'd be something. 

I kind of have my doubts that a Splatoon 2 will be available at launch with the NX considering EAD Group 2 is usually tasked with coming up with a game to emphasize a console's biggest feature like Wii Sports or Nintendoland (I'm guessing they'd try to do an amiibo-game at launch).  They're also due to make a proper Animal Crossing game so I'm guessing we won't get another Splatoon game from them for a couple of years unless they create a new development team for the IP or something. 

Splatoon took barely a year to develop using a young B-team at EAD2 only led in part by the director of the AC game. Splatoon's team also worked concurrently on both 2015 AC games. In my eyes, a mainline AC game would be close to completion by now if they were doing one, because all of the merged EPD studio has shown it's quite good at concurrent projects (Pikmin 4 is apparently done despite never being announced, as an example). In my eyes, with how well the first one has done, it'd be insane for them NOT to have it ready by the NX's launch. It'd be as simple as porting some of the beloved maps and adding a slightly less tacked on story at some point within he past six months until November. And that's even being conservative since the main Splat team would've been done in May since they held back most of the content which was otherwise finished. 

Does it inlcude bundles?