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Forums - Sales Discussion - December NPD 2015 predictions thread

OneKartVita on 11 December 2015

PS4: 1820K
X1: 1600k
Wii U: 480k

Bonus:
Vita: 50k



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Goodnightmoon on 11 December 2015
midrange said:
Goodnightmoon said:

Why is everybody predicting that WiiU will be down from the last year? It was at 245k on November, exactly the same as the last year, but this time wiiu didnt had Smash Bros, and still got those numbers anyways. This december Xenoblade Chronicles X was released, last year was Captain Toad, and while both will have probably similar sales at the end of their lifes, XCX will sell systems, Captain Toad didn't. So it looks like WiiU would be at least the same as the last year, close to 600k.

 

Nintendo had a lot more than smash leading into the holidays last year. There was hyrule warriors, captain toad, and bayonetta 2 as well. Not only is xenoblade x a far weaker franchise than smash bros, it's working alone with the last major title having been super mario maker back in early September. The bigger question is why would it be up. Xeno x wont be as big as smash and the ps4 and Xbox one are considerably stronger than last year

I repeat my argument: WiiU has done the SAME numbers on Novemeber than last year, and without any relevant release this time. And last year all games you mentioned (except Captain Toad) were already released in or before November, specially Smash Bros on that same month, yet is doing the same numbers this year. This year WiiU has for holidays Splatoon (that is still selling like cupcakes and is having a similar effect than MK8 selling consoles), Super Mario Maker, Yoshi's Woolly World and on December is releasing XCX a game that, even if does not have big sales, sells consoles, not like the last year december game Captain Toad, so if November was like the last year, why is not gonna be December too? Why is going to fall suddlenly to 400k? Why is everybody predicting way less than last year? I didn't say it is going to be higher, I said it must be around the same, so around 580k.





Welfare on 11 December 2015

[PS4] 1601K
[WIU] 470K
[XB1] 1503K



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

midrange on 11 December 2015
Goodnightmoon said:
midrange said:
Goodnightmoon said:

Why is everybody predicting that WiiU will be down from the last year? It was at 245k on November, exactly the same as the last year, but this time wiiu didnt had Smash Bros, and still got those numbers anyways. This december Xenoblade Chronicles X was released, last year was Captain Toad, and while both will have probably similar sales at the end of their lifes, XCX will sell systems, Captain Toad didn't. So it looks like WiiU would be at least the same as the last year, close to 600k.

 

Nintendo had a lot more than smash leading into the holidays last year. There was hyrule warriors, captain toad, and bayonetta 2 as well. Not only is xenoblade x a far weaker franchise than smash bros, it's working alone with the last major title having been super mario maker back in early September. The bigger question is why would it be up. Xeno x wont be as big as smash and the ps4 and Xbox one are considerably stronger than last year

I repeat my argument: WiiU has done the SAME numbers on Novemeber than last year, and without any relevant release this time. And last year all games you mentioned (except Captain Toad) were already released in or before November, specially Smash Bros on that same month, yet is doing the same numbers this year. This year WiiU has for holidays Splatoon (that is still selling like cupcakes and is having a similar effect than MK8 selling consoles), Super Mario Maker, Yoshi's Woolly World and on December is releasing XCX a game that, even if does not have big sales, sells consoles, not like the last year december game Captain Toad, so if November was like the last year, why is not gonna be December too? Why is going to fall suddlenly to 400k? Why is everybody predicting way less than last year? I didn't say it is going to be higher, I said it must be around the same, so around 580k.

The wii u is doing the same because they actually had a great bundle. Splatoon and Super Smash bros (both well known and solid games) for $250 is great value. Add in the fact that other places like target had it even lower at $220 and it makes sense that the wii u kept up with last year, when the wii u only had a mario kart bundle at $300.

It was surprising that the wii u did not sell far better numbers than last year.

Not only is the smash/splatoon bundle out for december (low stock or higher price), but Xenoblade X is not enough to push the wii u more than smash bros did last year.



Goodnightmoon on 11 December 2015
midrange said:
Goodnightmoon said:
midrange said:
Goodnightmoon said:

Why is everybody predicting that WiiU will be down from the last year? It was at 245k on November, exactly the same as the last year, but this time wiiu didnt had Smash Bros, and still got those numbers anyways. This december Xenoblade Chronicles X was released, last year was Captain Toad, and while both will have probably similar sales at the end of their lifes, XCX will sell systems, Captain Toad didn't. So it looks like WiiU would be at least the same as the last year, close to 600k.

 

Nintendo had a lot more than smash leading into the holidays last year. There was hyrule warriors, captain toad, and bayonetta 2 as well. Not only is xenoblade x a far weaker franchise than smash bros, it's working alone with the last major title having been super mario maker back in early September. The bigger question is why would it be up. Xeno x wont be as big as smash and the ps4 and Xbox one are considerably stronger than last year

I repeat my argument: WiiU has done the SAME numbers on Novemeber than last year, and without any relevant release this time. And last year all games you mentioned (except Captain Toad) were already released in or before November, specially Smash Bros on that same month, yet is doing the same numbers this year. This year WiiU has for holidays Splatoon (that is still selling like cupcakes and is having a similar effect than MK8 selling consoles), Super Mario Maker, Yoshi's Woolly World and on December is releasing XCX a game that, even if does not have big sales, sells consoles, not like the last year december game Captain Toad, so if November was like the last year, why is not gonna be December too? Why is going to fall suddlenly to 400k? Why is everybody predicting way less than last year? I didn't say it is going to be higher, I said it must be around the same, so around 580k.

The wii u is doing the same because they actually had a great bundle. Splatoon and Super Smash bros (both well known and solid games) for $250 is great value. Add in the fact that other places like target had it even lower at $220 and it makes sense that the wii u kept up with last year, when the wii u only had a mario kart bundle at $300.

It was surprising that the wii u did not sell far better numbers than last year.

Not only is the smash/splatoon bundle out for december (low stock or higher price), but Xenoblade X is not enough to push the wii u more than smash bros did last year.

And who said it would push it MORE, because I said twice that it should do the same, not more. Yes this year WiiU had a bundle of 2 old games (one from May 2015, other from Nov 2014) for November, however last year it had one of the biggest Nintendo IPs ever on November, who is bigger? obviously Smash, Wiiu did the same on 2015 with not a single big game on November, to expect more is just not very smart. And on December the bundled will keep selling anyways btw.

If VGC numbers are relieable (I know they are a hit and miss usually) then WiiU has already sold close to 100k on its first week of December, and this is a 5 weeks month this year and the next 3 weeks sales are going to get bigger and bigger as always. There is not a single real reason to believe the console will be under 500k, yet that's what a lot of predictions here said just few hours ago (yes, some people has now changed their predictions, I wonder why), and in general there are no big reasons to believe it will be significatively lower than the 580k of the last year.





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Metallox on 11 December 2015

PS4: 1900K
XONE: 1700K
WU: 490K

Bonus: Xenoblade Chronicles will sell between 80K and 120K units and VGChartz it's going to overtrack it, just like Cereza 2. Already preparing for the worst possible scenario, because fatalism avoids further disappointments (=o=)/



My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first. 

NobleTeam360 on 11 December 2015

PS4: 1.79 Million
Xbox One: 1.6 million
Wii U: 550k



LipeJJ on 11 December 2015

PS4: 1.6m
XB1: 1.4m
3DS: 800k
WiiU: 600k
Vita: ?



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

midrange on 12 December 2015
Goodnightmoon said:
midrange said:

The wii u is doing the same because they actually had a great bundle. Splatoon and Super Smash bros (both well known and solid games) for $250 is great value. Add in the fact that other places like target had it even lower at $220 and it makes sense that the wii u kept up with last year, when the wii u only had a mario kart bundle at $300.

It was surprising that the wii u did not sell far better numbers than last year.

Not only is the smash/splatoon bundle out for december (low stock or higher price), but Xenoblade X is not enough to push the wii u more than smash bros did last year.

And who said it would push it MORE, because I said twice that it should do the same, not more. Yes this year WiiU had a bundle of 2 old games (one from May 2015, other from Nov 2014) for November, however last year it had one of the biggest Nintendo IPs ever on November, who is bigger? obviously Smash, Wiiu did the same on 2015 with not a single big game on November, to expect more is just not very smart. And on December the bundled will keep selling anyways btw.

If VGC numbers are relieable (I know they are a hit and miss usually) then WiiU has already sold close to 100k on its first week of December, and this is a 5 weeks month this year and the next 3 weeks sales are going to get bigger and bigger as always. There is not a single real reason to believe the console will be under 500k, yet that's what a lot of predictions here said just few hours ago (yes, some people has now changed their predictions, I wonder why), and in general there are no big reasons to believe it will be significatively lower than the 580k of the last year.

@bolded: that's not a very reliable assessment.

Last year smash was selling a lot because it is a big ip. It moved consoles (way more than xenoblade x can), but a bundle with 2 games at $50-$80 less than usual is going to do better than what smash does alone (it simply has more value to it since they are dropping the price of both the console and 2 games). November should have sold a huge amount more than last year.

Those bundles will be limited in stock and they won't be at similar prices compared to black friday and cyber monday. Without those bundles, the wii u only has xenoblade x, which is small compared to smash bros.

There is not a single real reason to believe the console will be under 500k, yet that's what a lot of predictions here said just few hours ago

I am literally giving reasons as to why people think it will sell worse this december compared to last year (biggest one being lack of price drop/system seller). Whether you agree with them or not is your issue.



Angelv577 on 12 December 2015

PS4:1.6m
Xb1: 1.3m
Wii U: 550k