Profits are certainly more important than pure sales but if Assault wasn't profitable enough at 1 million sales and caused the series to take over a decade long hiatus on consoles, than I'm not sure if Zero selling 1 million will be enough for them to invest heavily in the series.

I do really hope Zero is a critical and commercial success.

Honestly, yeah, haha... It's good to be optimistic, but even I think this is a bit far. I don't think there is a guarantee that a sequel will be that much more successful. It's uncertain how the NX will do when it is released some time next year. I would say around 2 to 3 mil is more reasonable? Maybe 5 mil would be a good end spot, personally at least.

It's a good point you raise and those figures don't lie. I would just say however that the figures are perhaps reflective of a smaller install base on the consoles they were on. Snes > N64 > NGC.

I disagree. To think Splatoon 2 is gonna sell 2 milions is to think NX is gonna be a complete failure.

Splatoon is gonna have like a 30% attach rate or more on wiiu when is all done, higer hardware numbers make lower attach rates, but even if Splatoon 2 manages to get only a 15% next time in a console with, let´s say, 50 milions of sales, that's already 7.5 milions of sales. And honestly, I doubt the next Splatoon would be under 20% of attach rate, so I would say that your prediction is actually kind of pesimistic. 

That's a potential factor, but Star Fox sold better on N64 than it did SNES with a smaller install base and we have seen other games like Mario Kart 64 doing better than the SNES version and Smash Bros doing better on GC than N64, same with Paper Mario so it's certainly possible for a game to sell better on a lower install base if it's perceived to be an improvement.

A Splatoon sequel is a given, not only Reggie stated that it's going to become canon,  but apparently the first title was extremely easy to do, one of the main developers for the project stated that when the game was first revealed at E3 2014 it was roughly at 10% of completion and still it released 1 year after. Plus if we look at the last Iwata asks (ç_ç) we can tell that the game was probably a medium-low budjet project since they didn't think it would have sold well.

Nintendo will shurely spend more money on the next Splatoon so that the game releases with more content than the one packaged with the original at launch but even with that they can finish it in 2 years EASILY

What a joke each Nintendo console sells worse and worse. Besides Nintendo has already said that the NX is not a successor or replacement for the Wii U and they have already made patent applications showing that it is nothing more than an add-on to support their games made for Android. Why is Splatoon even guaranteed to have a sequel in the first place?

With integrated platform definitely possible, Splatoon on Wii U with very small user base will be around 4m.

Oh Wow
10mil sounds like a lot...

if the attache rate will stay the same and NX will selle lots than I guess they have a chance.

Yeah, I would say I can be more on the pessimistic side. I'm just not convinced yet Splatoon will become an instant big success. The first game was a great success, but who is to say a sequel will do just as well, or even better? Well, I don't know. I think a sequel would do better, but I'm not jumping from around 2-3 mil to 10 mil. I also feel just because something has a larger install base, doesn't mean a game will sell better automatically. Look at the PS4 with its fast growing base. It still doesn't have a game that's hit 10 mil, and it has some of the biggest games on it. So for Splatoon to sell 10 mil on a console we don't know a lot about? I have my doubts. 5 mil? Possible. 10 mil? I think it's a bit of a stretch.

I am not against it though. If it does reach 10 mil, I would be so so happy : D