Well, that's where it gets into the 'uhh no idea' part of my answer comes in, because NX is sort of a wild cart.

I think it has a decent shot at becoming a success, Nintendo at least, seems pretty confident about it. But overall it's hard to tell how the market will react to a console that as of now we know nothing but rumors about. And since of the likelyhoods in your OP depend on just that, I can not really weigh them other than 25% each without pulling things out of.....nowhere.

I feel like options 1.2 and 2.2 are also flawed because we have no gurantee to know if Nintendo would even make a new system if the NX fails, wich sort of makes them less likely.

We also don't really know how the whole dedicated hardware market will look in 5-10 years and if we will have something more akin to Netflix subscriptions/App store+AppleTv Box instead of dedicated consoles. Playstation, as well as microsoft have been taking steps into that direction and Nintendo has recently patented a cloud computing device, so it's hard to tell if this will be the thing to take off.

Also, like I mentioned previously, there is always the chance of a remaster/bc/virtual console release.

Making a prediction about that now would be like throwing darts at a dartboard with our eyes closed though. Sure, some people are bound to hit bullseye by chance, but it's unlikely and not a game of skill! There are so many other possibilities you haven't accounted for, such as NX having a lifespan longer than 5 years, or the next Zelda game coming in a much shorter timeframe. We don't even know for sure that the NX itself is a home console, and suitable for the next main Zelda game. We don't know if NX will release in 2016 or 2017 - affecting both when is lifespan will end and the likelihood of Zelda U being cross-gen. We don't know that the NX won't be Nintendo's last console.  We have no clue about the success of NX at all. There's a ton more stuff we don't know too, it just goes on and on.

I mean look, I've seen some crazy prediction threads before, but this one takes it to a new level. The fact that people are misinterpreting it is unsurprising when you're talking about games and consoles which are a long way from even Nintendo beginning to think about them, let alone us.

Yeah sure, you are right. To be honest, this thread wasnt made to be taken 100% serious. Is was a little bit sarcastic to people who are already claiming zelda wii u will be 100% on nx. We dont know anything about nx, so we do about nx successor. Still people act like its 100%. 

So why not take this to a whole new level ? ;)

Let's be honest, I was building up to that all along. Eyes closed, dart thrown.

No, Zelda NX won't be cross-gen. See you in 5/however many years.