SuperNova said:
Well, that's where it gets into the 'uhh no idea' part of my answer comes in, because NX is sort of a wild cart. I think it has a decent shot at becoming a success, Nintendo at least, seems pretty confident about it. But overall it's hard to tell how the market will react to a console that as of now we know nothing but rumors about. And since of the likelyhoods in your OP depend on just that, I can not really weigh them other than 25% each without pulling things out of.....nowhere.
I feel like options 1.2 and 2.2 are also flawed because we have no gurantee to know if Nintendo would even make a new system if the NX fails, wich sort of makes them less likely. We also don't really know how the whole dedicated hardware market will look in 5-10 years and if we will have something more akin to Netflix subscriptions/App store+AppleTv Box instead of dedicated consoles. Playstation, as well as microsoft have been taking steps into that direction and Nintendo has recently patented a cloud computing device, so it's hard to tell if this will be the thing to take off. Also, like I mentioned previously, there is always the chance of a remaster/bc/virtual console release. |
Sure its a prediction. You cant consider any facts or anything, just need your feeling. Many thing COULD happen, sure. But lets just say the console market wont vary much anymore but in terms of raw hardware power.
