I was reading the thread in the Nintendo section about the lack of good 3rd party support for the Wii as well as the fact that casual gamers only buy 2-3 games per year as opposed to hardcore that buy 1-2 per month. This gave me the following realisation about the system sales.

 The PS2 had a very slow start to its sales but had enormous legs that carried it to the record breaking sales by the middle of its lifetime.

I'm arguing that the PS2 start off as a very hardcore console, expensive and with complex games that didn't appeal to casuals, however as more casual games appeared and prices fell, casuals got hold of it and fuelled its sales.

The PS2 sales can roughly be applied to almost all older generation consoles and the PS3 and 360 (long term legs on these consoles and appeal to casuals has yet to materialise though)

Compare that to the Wii. Its simple controls, low price and bias towards casual gamers (and I stress bias and not lack of hardcore games) have made the Wii sales reversed as compared to the traditional model/understanding. I.e. casuals a buying it in large numbers at the sart of its lifetime than in the middle (along with hardcore buyers).

This has also contributed to the lack of 3rd party content due to the low sales (attach rates) of 3rd party software (assuming 3rd party is more niche and hardcore. i.e. bought by owners that leap before they look into a new franchise).

This fact is also proven by the low attach rates of PS2 blockbusters (5-6m sales out of a user-base of 100m)...

My point is, I believe that the Wii is at risk of being branded a casual console where 3rd party hardcore titles will never sell enough and hence leave the other two consoles as the place to find these titles.

While this will not affect the sales of the Wii in the short term, it might have an impact when developers target the other two consoles and support increases and with it sales.

With support for the other consoles, more casual games will appear and tempt more casuals to move to those consoles once prices come down enough.

While it seems to be a foregone conclusion on who will win this race, it may be a matter that the Wii60 or the PSWii will be more prevalent in the future than it is now, and people will need a HD console if they want the latest in cutting edge gaming from 3rd parties...

Not a bad theory... but you can also argue that the Wii might pull a reverse PS2 meaning it will start of casual and become more and more hardcore while gamers and 3rd parties mature... to say that the complete userbase of the Wii is casual would be foolish, as it grows the percentage of hardcore fans (who by more that a 2 games a year... I´m looking at you Soriku...JK) will grow as well, 3rd parties will stark catering to both percentages making it a win-win situation for the Wii... but only time will tell

The problem with 3rd party software is not attach ratio as such but the lack of quality software. If the quality was there from the beginning we wouldn.t be having this thread. There are not too many quality 3rd party games that haven't sold .

i feel the same way about almost all of what you said.....

i think third parties will start to get eh message that they could release on the 360/ps3 to half the instal base of the wii and sell great with 5-6 mil

or sell to the wii crowd with a low attach rate and still hit7-8 mil

not to mention its hellishly cheap to make a wii game compared to the other two

While I don't think it will suddenly turn into a hardcore console exclusively, I do expect more 3rd party support, just not as much and to the same quality as the other consoles.

Titles will definitely sell in numbers due to the large user base, it's just the way it started its life that is the problem.

It started with the casuals and the 3rd parties dismissing it before it was launched and this culimnated to the situation we have now.

The problem will be if the casuals suddenly get an alternative choice in the other consoles. This will eat into the sales of the Wii who are predominantly casual

^ Ahhhh. The original PlayStation didn't start with the major third party support, yet it put Sony ahead over it's lifecycle. I'm not sure why that correlation is overlooked so often.

I completely agree.

For the first time EVER, a console is (also) adressing to casual/non gamers since day 1.
I dont know how it will impact for the future of the Wii.

PS2 and Nintendo Wii are similar in regards to graphics and both are selling on 120 million console pace. PS2 is last gen's shovelware machine. Nintendo Wii is current generation shovel ware machine.

I think shovelware goes together with the userbase. The more the users, the more likely enough people will buy any game released in large enough numbers for it to make a profit.

@taxman :

Contradiction galore. Look :
"The problem will be if the casuals suddenly get an alternative choice in the other consoles. This will eat into the sales of the Wii who are predominantly casual"

and

"I think shovelware goes together with the userbase. The more the users, the more likely enough people will buy any game released in large enough numbers for it to make a profit."

So you're contradicting yourself. If the Wii gets the highest userbase, they will get the shovelware and the other two won't. Then casuals will stay on the console that has the most games, shovelware or not.

I believe hoping that casuals buy another console is total delusion. Especially since buying another console is based on hardcore tastes. Most casuals will stay casual.
Besides, shovelware comes with the userbase because developers are unable to make good casual oriented games, unlike Nintendo. Of course there are exceptions. But the unknown non-gamer demographic attracted by Nintendo has no reason to go to any other console than the Wii (or DS) for now. There is just nothing out there for them of the same caliber as the Wii family of games (Wii Sports, Wii Play, Wii Fit, soon Wii Music).

There is very few risk left for the Wii, most were passed some time ago.
The 3rd party developers can't put lower support without them just continuing in their downward spiral, while Nintendo rakes up the profit.
The situation was horrible with the Gamecube, but 3rd party devs could go to PS2. Think of what'll happen if the Wii has the larger userbase, like PS3+XB360 userbase or more (50+ % marketshare).
It will be a slaughter then, especially as most 3rd party devs didn't develop their games on Nintendo consoles before, and now suffer. Some have started putting ports to alleviate that, but all those that don't are in for a rude awakening when the gen will be more advanced, and will be dead in the next gen.