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Not a bad theory... but you can also argue that the Wii might pull a reverse PS2 meaning it will start of casual and become more and more hardcore while gamers and 3rd parties mature... to say that the complete userbase of the Wii is casual would be foolish, as it grows the percentage of hardcore fans (who by more that a 2 games a year... I´m looking at you Soriku...JK) will grow as well, 3rd parties will stark catering to both percentages making it a win-win situation for the Wii... but only time will tell