The lifecycle of a console and differences to the sales of the Wii compared to PS2

[ookaze]

@taxman :

Contradiction galore. Look :
"The problem will be if the casuals suddenly get an alternative choice in the other consoles. This will eat into the sales of the Wii who are predominantly casual"

and

"I think shovelware goes together with the userbase. The more the users, the more likely enough people will buy any game released in large enough numbers for it to make a profit."

So you're contradicting yourself. If the Wii gets the highest userbase, they will get the shovelware and the other two won't. Then casuals will stay on the console that has the most games, shovelware or not.

I believe hoping that casuals buy another console is total delusion. Especially since buying another console is based on hardcore tastes. Most casuals will stay casual.
Besides, shovelware comes with the userbase because developers are unable to make good casual oriented games, unlike Nintendo. Of course there are exceptions. But the unknown non-gamer demographic attracted by Nintendo has no reason to go to any other console than the Wii (or DS) for now. There is just nothing out there for them of the same caliber as the Wii family of games (Wii Sports, Wii Play, Wii Fit, soon Wii Music).

There is very few risk left for the Wii, most were passed some time ago.
The 3rd party developers can't put lower support without them just continuing in their downward spiral, while Nintendo rakes up the profit.
The situation was horrible with the Gamecube, but 3rd party devs could go to PS2. Think of what'll happen if the Wii has the larger userbase, like PS3+XB360 userbase or more (50+ % marketshare).
It will be a slaughter then, especially as most 3rd party devs didn't develop their games on Nintendo consoles before, and now suffer. Some have started putting ports to alleviate that, but all those that don't are in for a rude awakening when the gen will be more advanced, and will be dead in the next gen.