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Forums - Gaming - Apple A9X: The Mobile Processor That Outperforms a Wii U?

BlueFalcon said:

 

 

Soundwave said:

I never said they'd use that exact chip, I said they would want something from AMD that has similar type of performance at a similar power envelope. 

Ya that can only be an x86 APU, not an ARM processor since AMD makes no such products. That's exactly what many here are trying to tell you but you keep discussing scaling up A9X made by a completely different firm - Apple. Do you think if AMD could produce a chip that's a scaled version of A9/A9X they wouldn't have done so by now? AMD has no ARM SOC with A9/A9X level of performance scheduled to launch in 2016 so what is this magic ARM SOC chip AMD could sell to Nintendo? 

Soundwave said:

35 watts for 800 GFLOPS give of take isn't even that great to be honest considering that it's probably less than 2.5x the Wii U and the Wii U is a 40nm chip from 2010/11 at 31-32 watts. 

No 2.5X greater than 800GFlops takes us near PS4's GPU rating. The Wii U is nowhere close to that. I bet the Wii U's maximum single precision output is around 350-400 GFLOPS. The Wii U seems to have a maximum memory bandwidth of just 12.8GB/sec.

A very close GPU family that resembles the Wii U is HD4650 series with 320 stream processors and 16GB/sec memory bandwidth. Nintendo likely used the more modern HD5xxx derivative though but still that's miles behind HD7790 level in Xbox One and HD7850+ level in PS4. It's no wonder developers couldn't easily port 3rd party games to the Wii U because the GPU performance level in it could already be purchased September 2008 more or less. 

Soundwave said:

And they utilize GFLOPS in different ways, but I still maintain I would not be surprised at all if an A9X allowed to operate and scaled up to a massive 35 watt power envelope would probably beat that Carizzo

But Apple will not sell A9X to Nintendo and AMD makes no such products and has no such products in the pipeline in 2016. So no, there is no mythical ARM SOC Nintendo could use that could beat Carizzo. 

Soundwave said:

I wouldn't be surprised if it was fairly equal to the XBox One.  

In this very thread, you have already been proven wrong on this point. Even if we literally doubled the perfomrance of A9, that barely gets us to beat Surface Pro 3, which itself gets pounded by the best Intel APUs, and those are destroyed by HD7790 - the GPU in the Xbox One. 

Go read the responses already as it's all laid out for you. Stop ignoring facts. Unless you are an Apple shareholder, this A9X and NX rumors are baseless.

 

Soundwave said:

What will end up happening is many devs will end up just optimizing for the handheld spec because it'll likely be the top selling version by far, and then the console people will be stuck with portable games on the TV. So in that case you want some real grunt power to the handheld. 

Or Nintendo integrates an x86 APU and an 3rd party ARM SOC into the home console - let's call it NX Home. The NX Portable would be a separate device. Everyone who would have the NX portable, would be able to play all NX Portable games on the NX Home. What that means is if you buy an NX Portable game, you get 2 games in one. That's the point of a uniform eco-system. This way the home console can be made powerful enough for 3rd party XB1/PS4/PC games and have interoperability with the NX portable. 

Trying to cram a very powerful ARM SOC into the NX portable that would also be able to function as a solid home console would be prohibitevely expensive. In fact, from a technological point of view, there will not be any ARM SOC powerful enough to even match the Xbox One in 2016. 

Soundwave said:

$350 is too much for the console too, seeing as how PS4 will be $300 by next fall ($50 cut this year, $50 next year sounds about right). 

They could make it as powerful at least as powerful as the XB1 and sell for less than $350. How? Ship it with a standard controller. Ship it with no optical drive (digital distribution games only). Ship it with minimal profits on hardware like Sony/MS are doing. It's common sense that if Xbox One would sell for $299 by 2016, Nintendo can likely aquire similar hardware for $299. But since it'll be nearly 3 years since the chips in PS4/XB1 came out, it should be possible to acquire even greater level of perfomrance for $100-110 for a 2016 AMD APU. Alternatively, AMD is far more desperate right now to win business than it was during 2013 when their finances were in better shape. That should allow Nintendo to negotiate an even better deal than what Sony/MS got in 2013 because AMD literally needs every revenue stream it can get right now. 

Nintendo is in the best possible position to introduce a great console since XB1/PS4 are going to be 3-years-old, but it's just about what they want out of their console and who are they targetting. 

You have also ignored a point raised earlier how many an ARM SOC only corners Nintendo into future options for NX2, NX3, etc. because to make the next versions of their consoles BC, they would need an ARM SOC design or if they switch to x86, they'd need a secondary ARM SOC which adds cost. 

3rd parties would have a lot of trouble porting x86 code games if the NX is solely an ARM SOC design like the A9X.


A9 is not A9X, A9X will be at least double what the A9 is. And I never said they are using the A9X or A9 (even though Sony basically did use the same GPU from PowerVR that Apple used in the A5X ... PowerVR will sell it to anyone). 

I'm just saying this TYPE of processor is likely to be the basis of what Nintendo is going for because it operates under a thermal envelope that is reasonable for a mobile fan-less device. 

You can't just make any super-duper 2 TFLOP console using desktop parts and then think you're going to have a unified platform with a mobile part ... a Carizzo would melt the inside of a 3DS in 10 minutes of play. 

Personally I think Nintendo will go for a custom design but one that is heavily based around what's happening with the bleeding edge tablet/smartphone processors. And from there they can scale that up for a console chip if they want two seperate SKUs, but even that I'm starting to become doubtful of. 

I think NX is what Nintendo says it is ... a new hardware concept that is completely different from the Wii U or 3DS. I think it is a portable all-in-one console that has other new ways to play that make it different from any other game hardware before it. Just my hunch though. 

Maaaaybe there will be eventually other SKU versions of it, but I think primarily that's what NX is. A $250 portable console probably with some other new gimmick attached to it. When Nintendo says "new hardware concept" I think fans keep going "yeah, yeah, you won't change much just unify the library right?", but I'm starting to feel when look at their actual quotes on the system that they're not joking around. This will be something different. 



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Soundwave said:

I don't think a $20 processor gets you PS4/XB1 graphics, not even scaled down at 480p resolution. RAM would have to be $30 at least probably more. Unless Nintendo is using a shit screen again that's $50 at least for your touch panel. Sensors/NFC/WiFi is another cost. NAND Flash. And you're going to need a huge battery to power the thing too. 

I have doubts they can sell that at $200 without taking a loss. Like I said the mentality here is too much of "well just design the console first and then we'll slap together whatever for the handheld". For a unified platform, particularily where the handheld is more likely to be 4:1 the best seller, you can't have that approach. 

I think they have to build the portable chip first, then it's easy to scale that up, but that's not workable IMO using desktop PC components or even laptop components that have the benefit of being cooled internally by a huge casing and a fan. 

I don't see Nintendo magically eating $50 of the hardware cost if you buy both either. What's in it for them to take $50 less on the hardware (that likely is already being sold at margin/loss) just because you want to buy both? 


Is anyone really expecting the NXDS to have PS4 level graphics? I'm expecting it to have Wii U level graphics when the 3D is on at 544p on the top screen, and I think it's absolutely insane for anyone to expect anything more than that.

I also think it's insane for anyone to think that the NX and NXDS are going to have any kind of power parity at all. The NX and the NXDS are going to be as much of a generational gap in power as the Wii U and 3DS before it. The difference will come from the way the architectures and OS is designed, specifically for the purpose of making games as easy to develope for between the two as possible. You're still going to get massive differences in the way games look and perform between the two. The difference will be far more than just resolution. The games will have much less polygons on the NXDS, they will likely have dumbed down physics, lower draw distances, less enemies on screen, and many 60fps games will probably run at a lower framerate. You aren't going to get anywhere close to real parity on this platform. You'll get the graphical spectacle on the high end NX and the portable novelty on the low end NXDS, and no sane consumer is expecting anything more than that from the handheld.

This it the level of difference you'll be seeing between the NXDS and the NX:

Nothing more, and people will be fine with it, because the low-end NXDS versions will look almost as good as the images on the right/bottom, only as 544p and that will be more than good enough on a 5in screen. You are vastly overestimating how powerful the handheld needs to be to be able to play scaled down NX games.



spemanig said:
Soundwave said:

I don't think a $20 processor gets you PS4/XB1 graphics, not even scaled down at 480p resolution. RAM would have to be $30 at least probably more. Unless Nintendo is using a shit screen again that's $50 at least for your touch panel. Sensors/NFC/WiFi is another cost. NAND Flash. And you're going to need a huge battery to power the thing too. 

I have doubts they can sell that at $200 without taking a loss. Like I said the mentality here is too much of "well just design the console first and then we'll slap together whatever for the handheld". For a unified platform, particularily where the handheld is more likely to be 4:1 the best seller, you can't have that approach. 

I think they have to build the portable chip first, then it's easy to scale that up, but that's not workable IMO using desktop PC components or even laptop components that have the benefit of being cooled internally by a huge casing and a fan. 

I don't see Nintendo magically eating $50 of the hardware cost if you buy both either. What's in it for them to take $50 less on the hardware (that likely is already being sold at margin/loss) just because you want to buy both? 


Is anyone really expecting the NXDS to have PS4 level graphics? I'm expecting it to have Wii U level graphics when the 3D is on at 544p on the top screen, and I think it's absolutely insane for anyone to expect anything more than that.

I also think it's insane for anyone to think that the NX and NXDS are going to have any kind of power parity at all. The NX and the NXDS are going to be as much of a generational gap in power as the Wii U and 3DS before it. The difference will come from the way the architectures and OS is designed, specifically for the purpose of making games as easy to develope for between the two as possible. You're still going to get massive differences in the way games look and perform between the two. The difference will be far more than just resolution. The games will have much less polygons on the NXDS, they will likely have dumbed down physics, lower draw distances, less enemies on screen, and many 60fps games will probably run at a lower framerate. You aren't going to get anywhere close to real parity on this platform. You'll get the graphical spectacle on the high end NX and the portable novelty on the low end NXDS, and no sane consumer is expecting anything more than that from the handheld.

This it the level of difference you'll be seeing between the NXDS and the NX:

Nothing more, and people will be fine with it, because the low-end NXDS versions will look almost as good as the images on the right/bottom, only as 544p and that will be more than good enough on a 5in screen. You are vastly overestimating how powerful the handheld needs to be to be able to play scaled down NX games.


That's fine, but that's not a unified platform then. 

If a third party developer has to basically in effect make two different versions of a game for it to actually run on both devices, then largely speaking I think most developers will say "thanks but no thanks". 

I don't think that console NX will get much support at all either. Third parties went through this before with the Wii U, the PS4/XB1 versions of all their multiplats are just going to sell like 1 million+ on the PS4 and then the XB1 a little less, and then waaaaaaay down there you're going to have the NX console version with like 80k for Madden or Bio Shock. 

Most devs won't bother. The whole appeal to the unified platform was always that you might be able to get at some of that REAL Nintendo audience, that is the one that buys their portables. If it's too much trouble though or devs have to use last gen engines, they'll probably just not bother with that either. 

The console NX is just an automatic no-go, it may as well be the Wii U 2. Too little, way too late, developers have to pay their bills and that means focusing on the PS4/XB1 that have an actual audience that is proven to buy the types of games they make. 



Soundwave said:

A9 is not A9X, A9X will be at least double what the A9 is. And I never said they are using the A9X or A9 (even though Sony basically did use the same GPU from PowerVR that Apple used in the A5X ... PowerVR will sell it to anyone). 

I'm just saying this TYPE of processor is likely to be the basis of what Nintendo is going for because it operates under a thermal envelope that is reasonable for a mobile fan-less device. 

You can't just make any super-duper 2 TFLOP console using desktop parts and then think you're going to have a unified platform with a mobile part ... a Carizzo would melt the inside of a 3DS in 10 minutes of play. 

Personally I think Nintendo will go for a custom design but one that is heavily based around what's happening with the bleeding edge tablet/smartphone processors. And from there they can scale that up for a console chip if they want two seperate SKUs, but even that I'm starting to become doubtful of. 

I think NX is what Nintendo says it is ... a new hardware concept that is completely different from the Wii U or 3DS. I think it is a portable all-in-one console that has other new ways to play that make it different from any other game hardware before it. Just my hunch though. 

Maaaaybe there will be eventually other SKU versions of it, but I think primarily that's what NX is. A $250 portable console probably with some other new gimmick attached to it. When Nintendo says "new hardware concept" I think fans keep going "yeah, yeah, you won't change much just unify the library right?", but I'm starting to feel when look at their actual quotes on the system that they're not joking around. This will be something different. 


Nintendo never said "new hardware concept." They said "new hardware with a brand new concept," which is completely different. The hardware isn't the new concept. The hardware is being accompanied by the new concept, which is the unified platform. Iwata literally said that they weren't going to do an all-in-one portable console-like device when he said that they wouldn't be integrating the home console and handheld into one machine.

"What we mean by integrating platforms is NOT integrating handhelds devices and home consoles to make only one machine. What we are aiming at is to integrate the architecture to form a common basis for software development so that we can make software assets more transferrable, and operating systems and their build-in applications more portable, regardless of form factor or performance of EACH platform." - Iwata

I know that you really want to be right with this "portable console" thing, but it's literally based on nothing. In fact, it literally been flat out denied.



spemanig said:
Soundwave said:

A9 is not A9X, A9X will be at least double what the A9 is. And I never said they are using the A9X or A9 (even though Sony basically did use the same GPU from PowerVR that Apple used in the A5X ... PowerVR will sell it to anyone). 

I'm just saying this TYPE of processor is likely to be the basis of what Nintendo is going for because it operates under a thermal envelope that is reasonable for a mobile fan-less device. 

You can't just make any super-duper 2 TFLOP console using desktop parts and then think you're going to have a unified platform with a mobile part ... a Carizzo would melt the inside of a 3DS in 10 minutes of play. 

Personally I think Nintendo will go for a custom design but one that is heavily based around what's happening with the bleeding edge tablet/smartphone processors. And from there they can scale that up for a console chip if they want two seperate SKUs, but even that I'm starting to become doubtful of. 

I think NX is what Nintendo says it is ... a new hardware concept that is completely different from the Wii U or 3DS. I think it is a portable all-in-one console that has other new ways to play that make it different from any other game hardware before it. Just my hunch though. 

Maaaaybe there will be eventually other SKU versions of it, but I think primarily that's what NX is. A $250 portable console probably with some other new gimmick attached to it. When Nintendo says "new hardware concept" I think fans keep going "yeah, yeah, you won't change much just unify the library right?", but I'm starting to feel when look at their actual quotes on the system that they're not joking around. This will be something different. 


Nintendo never said "new hardware concept." They said "new hardware with a brand new concept," which is completely different. The hardware isn't the new concept. The hardware is being accompanied by the new concept, which is the unified platform. Iwata literally said that they weren't going to do an all-in-one portable console-like device when he said that they wouldn't be integrating the home console and handheld into one machine.

"What we mean by integrating platforms is NOT integrating handhelds devices and home consoles to make only one machine. What we are aiming at is to integrate the architecture to form a common basis for software development so that we can make software assets more transferrable, and operating systems and their build-in applications more portable, regardless of form factor or performance of EACH platform." - Iwata

I know that you really want to be right with this "portable console" thing, but it's literally based on nothing. In fact, it literally been flat out denied.

He's said in a statement after that (more recently) that he didn't know what form what presumably is the NX would take. Mentioned it could be one, could be three or four, he wasn't sure. 

Nintendo can do what they want. Hell they have been for 20 years now. I would've advocated for a CD-ROM drive in the N64. I would've pushed for a non-purple, Fisher Price lunch box design for the GameCube. I would've just spun off the Wii line into its own side-brand for casuals/fitness types and just released a proper console for 2012. 

Obviously Nintendo does whatever the fuck pleases their fancy and they probably will again. 

What I do know is this -- Sony looks pretty much on their game right now, and if anyone thinks they're going to just sneak in with a half-assed effort and be able to take market share from them, they have a very rude awakening awaiting them. Especially when you give them a 3 year head start. 



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Soundwave said:

That's fine, but that's not a unified platform then. 

If a third party developer has to basically in effect make two different versions of a game for it to actually run on both devices, then largely speaking I think most developers will say "thanks but no thanks". 

I don't think that console NX will get much support at all either. Third parties went through this before with the Wii U, the PS4/XB1 versions of all their multiplats are just going to sell like 1 million+ on the PS4 and then the XB1 a little less, and then waaaaaaay down there you're going to have the NX console version with like 80k for Madden or Bio Shock. 

Most devs won't bother. The whole appeal to the unified platform was always that you might be able to get at some of that REAL Nintendo audience, that is the one that buys their portables. If it's too much trouble though or devs have to use last gen engines, they'll probably just not bother with that either. 

The console NX is just an automatic no-go, it may as well be the Wii U 2. Too little, way too late, developers have to pay their bills and that means focusing on the PS4/XB1 that have an actual audience that is proven to buy the types of games they make. 


Oh, yes it is a unified platform. The end result would be like those two games, but the developement behind them would be absolutely nothing like them where they are building two completely different games and just tracing what's on one to the other. Third party devs already make multiple versions of games. That's what ports are. That's what different settings on PCs are. This would be much less than that, because the platform is absolutely built to make it as easy as possible to do. It'll be almost as simple for devs as making an ultra setting and a low end setting on a PC rig, just with added optimization for both.

It's way too soon to think the NX won't get support. The Wii U was underpowered and was selling like shit. That's why it didn't get support. The NX has the benefit of having a unified installed base where the handheld will be pretty much guaranteed to sell amazing. It also will likely be on par with the PS4 and XBO, meaning that there won't be anything stopping them from getting ports outside of Nintendo's audience. Even if the home console is seemingly a slouch, they can still judge the installed base as one massive one while still building the game for the NX and then simply scaling down and optimizing for the NXDS version. And since the NX will likely be on par with the other systems, and will be getting a better flow of first party games as well as third party games because of the unified installed base, I see no reason to immediately assume that it will be DOA. On the contrary, it's hilariously dismissive.



Soundwave said:

He's said in a statement after that (more recently) that he didn't know what form what presumably is the NX would take. Mentioned it could be one, could be three or four, he wasn't sure. 

Nintendo can do what they want. Hell they have been for 20 years now. I would've advocated for a CD-ROM drive in the N64. I would've pushed for a non-purple, Fisher Price lunch box design for the GameCube. I would've just spun off the Wii line into its own side-brand for casuals/fitness types and just released a proper console for 2012. 

Obviously Nintendo does whatever the fuck pleases their fancy and they probably will again. 

What I do know is this -- Sony looks pretty much on their game right now, and if anyone thinks they're going to just sneak in with a half-assed effort and be able to take market share from them, they have a very rude awakening awaiting them. Especially when you give them a 3 year head start. 


If you're considering Nintendo "redefining what it means to be a video game platform" as a "half-assed effort," you're literally not paying attention.



spemanig said:
Soundwave said:

That's fine, but that's not a unified platform then. 

If a third party developer has to basically in effect make two different versions of a game for it to actually run on both devices, then largely speaking I think most developers will say "thanks but no thanks". 

I don't think that console NX will get much support at all either. Third parties went through this before with the Wii U, the PS4/XB1 versions of all their multiplats are just going to sell like 1 million+ on the PS4 and then the XB1 a little less, and then waaaaaaay down there you're going to have the NX console version with like 80k for Madden or Bio Shock. 

Most devs won't bother. The whole appeal to the unified platform was always that you might be able to get at some of that REAL Nintendo audience, that is the one that buys their portables. If it's too much trouble though or devs have to use last gen engines, they'll probably just not bother with that either. 

The console NX is just an automatic no-go, it may as well be the Wii U 2. Too little, way too late, developers have to pay their bills and that means focusing on the PS4/XB1 that have an actual audience that is proven to buy the types of games they make. 


Oh, yes it is a unified platform. The end result would be like those two games, but the developement behind them would be absolutely nothing like them where they are building two completely different games and just tracing what's on one to the other. Third party devs already make multiple versions of games. That's what ports are. That's what different settings on PCs are. This would be much less than that, because the platform is absolutely built to make it as easy as possible to do. It'll be almost as simple for devs as making an ultra setting and a low end setting on a PC rig, just with added optimization for both.

It's way too soon to think the NX won't get support. The Wii U was underpowered and was selling like shit. That's why it didn't get support. The NX has the benefit of having a unified installed base where the handheld will be pretty much guaranteed to sell amazing. It also will likely be on par with the PS4 and XBO, meaning that there won't be anything stopping them from getting ports outside of Nintendo's audience. Even if the home console is seemingly a slouch, they can still judge the installed base as one massive one while still building the game for the NX and then simply scaling down and optimizing for the NXDS version. And since the NX will likely be on par with the other systems, and will be getting a better flow of first party games as well as third party games because of the unified installed base, I see no reason to immediately assume that it will be DOA. On the contrary, it's hilariously dismissive.


Again, if the handheld is what has the userbase, but I can't run my modern engines on it from the PS4/X1, then for me as a third party this means shit to me. 

Third parties do not care about Nintendo. And I don't blame them for not caring, Nintendo has given them plenty of reasons not to. 

If anything NX will have a *harder* time because the Wii U was at least the sucessor to the monstrously successful Wii, and got things like Zombi U from Ubi Soft and Call of Duty from Activision, because developers had to some what show Nintendo some respect early on. When you sell 100 million the previous generation you get the benefit of the doubt a little bit. 

NX is following the Wii U though. It's another console that's several years behind the other two like the Wii U was. And you can't really run the same game on the handheld vs the console because the power gap between them is too large. Sure you can make versions for both but it likely requires a different dev team. Which isn't that different from the Wii U-3DS of today. What exactly is so appealling about this to a third party that doesn't really think much of Nintendo to begin with? 

The bottom line though is the PS4 will have 40+ million install base and XBox One past 20 million before Nintendo sells even one of these, and no firmware/development environment changes that. 



spemanig said:
Soundwave said:

He's said in a statement after that (more recently) that he didn't know what form what presumably is the NX would take. Mentioned it could be one, could be three or four, he wasn't sure. 

Nintendo can do what they want. Hell they have been for 20 years now. I would've advocated for a CD-ROM drive in the N64. I would've pushed for a non-purple, Fisher Price lunch box design for the GameCube. I would've just spun off the Wii line into its own side-brand for casuals/fitness types and just released a proper console for 2012. 

Obviously Nintendo does whatever the fuck pleases their fancy and they probably will again. 

What I do know is this -- Sony looks pretty much on their game right now, and if anyone thinks they're going to just sneak in with a half-assed effort and be able to take market share from them, they have a very rude awakening awaiting them. Especially when you give them a 3 year head start. 


If you're considering Nintendo "redefining what it means to be a video game platform" as a "half-assed effort," you're literally not paying attention.


The Wii redefined what a video game console is, unifying a library (well not really even that as it turns out from what you're saying) isn't redefining anything. 

Explain to a normal person at a Wal-Mart why the NX is so revolutionary ... because it has unified development tools to allow for easier sharing of assets. They're going to look at your like you're a damn nut. That doesn't resonate with a consumer, it's something maybe 20 people on internet message board get excited about. 

The Wii, people could look at that and say very clearly "yeah I get it, this is very different" right away. 

So if that's their "hook" or what they think is "redefining the game platform" ... good luck to you Nintendo. You are going to need it. 



Soundwave said:

Again, if the handheld is what has the userbase, but I can't run my modern engines on it from the PS4/X1, then for me as a third party this means shit to me. 

Third parties do not care about Nintendo. And I don't blame them for not caring, Nintendo has given them plenty of reasons not to. 

If anything NX will have a *harder* time because the Wii U was at least the sucessor to the monstrously successful Wii, and got things like Zombi U from Ubi Soft and Call of Duty from Activision, because developers had to some what show Nintendo some respect early on. When you sell 100 million the previous generation you get the benefit of the doubt a little bit. 

NX is following the Wii U though. It's another console that's several years behind the other two like the Wii U was. And you can't really run the same game on the handheld vs the console because the power gap between them is too large. Sure you can make versions for both but it likely requires a different dev team. Which isn't that different from the Wii U-3DS of today. What exactly is so appealling about this to a third party that doesn't really think much of Nintendo to begin with? 

The bottom line though is the PS4 will have 40+ million install base and XBox One past 20 million before Nintendo sells even one of these, and no firmware/development environment changes that. 

Why wouldn't they be able to run their engines on the NXDS? They run fine on phones and the Vita. Again, they don't have to work like the PS4/XBO versions. They just have to work, be easy to port to, and be sold on an installed base big enough to warrent the port, which they will be. The scaling will be easy and secondary. They will all make their games for the NX hardware and then do a simple scale way down and optimization for the NXDS version.

Third parties aren't against Nintendo either.

I don't think that's how it works at all. I think they will always have to show initial respect to Nintendo. Anyone can say anything about Nintendo, but it's called the big three and not the big two for a reason, and devs know that. There will definitely be late adopters to the NX, but there is no doubt in my mind that many of the early adopters for the Wii U will be there for the NX, with the difference being that they will be able to get a return on their investments thanks to a much much larger unified installed base.

None of that matters. The PS4 and XBO had amazing support at launch even when the PS360 had a combined 160m installed base. Let's not get carried away. 60m+ is crumbs by comparison.