Yeah, I think it will be very similar to this. Though I don't think the "random deal" thing will happen. Instead, I think you'll see promotions system wide for specific types of games. Think 2013 and that SMTIV/FE:A deal where you got $30 eshop credit when you bought both. I think you'll see a lot of stuff like that as the "default" deals. Then, there will be more "personal" deals based on your purchase history.

First there's one that's just the basic "$5 for every $50 spent" kind of thing, though I think it will likely be % off tiers instead. Like you get 5% everything in the store for that year for the first $100 you spend on the eshop. $150 = 10% off. $200 = 15% off, and on and on until it caps at like 30% off. It would be like Club Nintendo, where the "year" starts every summer, so it's not that you get an entire year with that discount, but that you get the rest of that period with it. It works out for Nintendo because the more your discount is, the more games you're willing to buy. By the time you're getting 30% off every game, you've already spent like $350 on the eshop, so they're effectively making that money back in locked potential sales. And because you're perpetially getting games cheaper, each teir requires more game purchases to reach, meaning only the minority of gamers will ever reach it in a year, but they'll feel like they've earned it. Since it resets every year, like Club Nintendo did, Nintendo doesn't need to worry about the long term ramifications of such a discount carrying over year after year. All they need to do it end the year with a major reward/sale like with the gold and platinum Club Nintendo rewards to give the even closure, and Nintendo has a cosumer friendly way to trick consumers into spending more money than they would have otherwise. This is how Steam is such a force now. Nintendo could do something similar, for free.

Then there could be like a recommendation deal. Nintendo alluded to this before, but they want a social aspect where gamers are rewarded for recommending games to their friends. Let's say I own a copy of Diddy Kong Racing Returns. (God willing) I love the game, obviously. You and I are friend on the NX, and I think you'd like it, so I can send you a "recommendation coupon." You get the game for a small discount, maybe 10% off or something, and now you buy the game as a result. Nintendo just got a sale because I recommended a game to you. As a result, I may get a $5 credit added to my account because my recommendation gave Nintendo a sale. I can only give out recommendation coupons to people on my friends list for games I already own and have played for an unspecified amount of hours or something. This would encourage players to basically market Nintendo's games for them. This would be especially good for smaller titles like indie games. Oh, and obviously you can only recieve one recommendation coupon per game, and the coupons are game specific.

Last, they could do something like you said their you get deals tailor made for you depending on the types of games you own. Nintendo could, at anytime, determine that, based on your long term sales history, you'd be really interested in a particular game. Let's say that you already own A Link to the Past and ALBW. Nintendo might have an algorithm suggesting you try Triforce Heroes, so they give you a flash sale for only 24 hours where you can get the game for 33% off. Maybe you didn't know about or care about the game, but the discount gets you to try it out and you love it.

The point, though, is to get people willing and excited about spending more money. It's that impulse buy mentality Nintendo will try to cultivate with this program. Steam is so successful because it gets people spending so much money on games, even though many don't ever play most of them. It's the illousion that you're getting a great deal by spending less money in the short term that gets consumers spending more money in the long term. Then you're attached to your account because you've invested so much money in the Nintendo ecosystem, and that's when Nintendo has a dedicated consumer that is unlikely to leave.

Of course, that is why the platform will be digital. This won't happen with physical media.

Multiplayer behind a paywall is stupid.