u also failed at projecting the ps3 as well...u have it at 8.8mil/year when it did 7.9mil last year and this year thus far it is doing more than 11.8% better than last year, so it's projecting at higher than 170 as well, so your projection should be higher for ps3

We are 312 months into the last generation, and two of the three consoles are still for sale, one of them beating most of this generation.

I don't think 180 months will be the end of it, and I don't think anyone can accurately predict who will be wining it at that time. There are too many variables, and to too much time left.

I mean, if we get to the PS2 sales, then we are really only about 15% into it at the moment.

I really enjoy these posts about how this generation is so different from all the others, and how it will last so much longer. I think many of you have accepted these companies' PR speak about how their platforms are going to be around for ages and ages to come. The reality, however, is that every company always says that they'll be around for the long haul in each generation. Remember how Iwata said that the Gamecube was going to be supported for 8 years and sell 50m units? How did that go?

The problem is that the dynamics of this market ensure that there will be a new generation every five years, six at the absolute most. For the following reasons:

• Because of the way that third-parties work, one clear winner always emerges in each generation. 
• Technology improves rapidly (Moore's Law) allowing greatly improved performance at greatly reduced costs.
• There is a huge advantage attached to being the first mover in each generation, beating your rivals to the punch.
• Therefore, the "losers" of each generation have a gigantic incentive to launch their new platform early, accelerating the next generation to make up for their shortcomings in the previous one. All you have to do is look at the 360 to see this in action - and, clearly, it worked for Microsoft.

So I don't accept the notion that these consoles are going to be around for another five or six years with nothing new appearing on the horizon. Even if that were technically possible, it won't happen for business reasons (who would tamely sit in third place and accept losing money?) And if none of the current manufacturers are willing to develop new consoles, a new company will seize the market opportunity by jumping in and taking advantage with a powerful and inexpensive system (e.g. Sony in 1994).

SOMEONE will have launched a new platform of some kind by the end of 2011, kicking off the eighth generation. That's a guarantee.

The current generation consoles have only been on the market a short time and this thread is talking about the end. Who cares when the end is. Enjoy the consoles and games that you have.

I agree his post is a little off, but I think you are not looking at all the factors in your list. Here are a few to consider that would make this generation longer.

• The cost of making games today has gone way up. One as high as 70 million. In order to make profit off those games, you need a huge client base. The next generation will almost certainly cost even more. These rising costs mean platforms need a longer lifespan in order to justify these development costs.
• This generation saw an improvement in display medium (HDTV’s), the next one will not. That reduces the need for another step up in visual quality. Aside from memory constraints, the current crop of consoles from MS and Sony can display amazing visuals and sound. The best games on the PC are only marginally better (and that’s debatable) 1-3 years after these consoles were released. That’s unheard of in the gaming industry. (and another sigh as to why these will be around for a while).
• MS has no good upgrade path. When MS comes out with their next console, it will have to be a complete departure from what they are doing now. Heat and performance of the PPC has hit its limit. To change will cost a lot of money, and will hurt backwards compatibility. Sony will milk the PS3 for as many years as they can.
• Lastly, everyone is making money. Most of your money is made on the backend of a consoles life. The big three are going to all show profits. Why rock the boat when you’re making money? I think this fact alone will extend the life if this generations consoles.
  

exactly, sullla

technology doesn't determine generation length, business strategy does...even if someone creates a machine more powerful than the NEXT generation of their competitors, they still aren't skipping a generation of launching if not the clear market leader...they will build a new console that they can position differently in the market to try to gain a larger share

gameboy wasn't very technologically advanced but it stuck around for so long because of lack of competitors that took chunk out of it...nintendo had no business reason to discontinue the gameboy and make a successor for many many years

PS2 is still selling almost as much as the Wii in the US. Its not going anywhere yet. The end of the generation is a ways off but I see PS3 gaining ground and possibly catching up to the Wii if third parties keep ignoring it and releasing crap games. Did you guys check out the decision 2008 topic on 1up.com? The Wii lineup is horrible. Here is the link:

http://www.1up.com/do/feature?cId=3165878

While the 360/PS3 have some amazing games coming out in 2008. I know I bash the Wii alot and its mainly because of the great success it is having, but I actually fear for its life if the game lineup continues down this path. 2008 is PS3's year and maybe 2009 depending on what MS does to counter all the great exclusives. There are rumors of Mass Effect 2 and Bioshock 2 coming to PS3. This will really hurt 360.

a) the rising cost is one of the reasons the next gen will come sooner than later...as wii passes the 50% mark, developers will have to choose between paying more and taking longer to develop games for <1/2 the market or developing games faster and cheaper to sell to >1/2 the market...so ps360 game development will slow down and ms/sony will want to do something to get more licensing fees and to reposition themselves in the market to get a chance to be #1, not a distant 2nd/3rd

b) graphics aren't the only reason for upgrading consoles

c) ms can make a new console that is reliable, thus greatly helping their position in the market...it will also be even more powerful and cheaper to make and it will have improved controls (motion/ir) that will help them to reach the 90% of consumers that they can't currently reach

d) they can make much more money by launching a console that will be better positioned in the market...

a) ps2 isn't selling NEARLY as much as the wii in the US, even tho wii is severely supply constrained

3/3/08 to 3/8/08 in Americas:

ps2: 4.3 million
wii: 7.7 million

ps3: 3.13 million

b) wii's lineup isn't horrible...it's first half is better with ssbb/mario kart/wii fit/no more heroes/pro evo/etc and the 2nd half is simply UNKNOWN...Nintendo doesn't tell us until E3 about the last half of the year...so at worst it is UNKNOWN how good the lineup is...at best it's already a good first half and 2nd halves are almost ALWAYS better due to xmas season

btw, even if it was horrid, it would still kick ass this gen as casuals/nongamers don't care about the lineup of AAA games