130-180 weeks left in the generation, what are you thoughts.

[Fastrabbit09]

TheRealMafoo said:

I agree his post is a little off, but I think you are not looking at all the factors in your list. Here are a few to consider that would make this generation longer.

• The cost of making games today has gone way up. One as high as 70 million. In order to make profit off those games, you need a huge client base. The next generation will almost certainly cost even more. These rising costs mean platforms need a longer lifespan in order to justify these development costs.
• This generation saw an improvement in display medium (HDTV’s), the next one will not. That reduces the need for another step up in visual quality. Aside from memory constraints, the current crop of consoles from MS and Sony can display amazing visuals and sound. The best games on the PC are only marginally better (and that’s debatable) 1-3 years after these consoles were released. That’s unheard of in the gaming industry. (and another sigh as to why these will be around for a while).
• MS has no good upgrade path. When MS comes out with their next console, it will have to be a complete departure from what they are doing now. Heat and performance of the PPC has hit its limit. To change will cost a lot of money, and will hurt backwards compatibility. Sony will milk the PS3 for as many years as they can.
• Lastly, everyone is making money. Most of your money is made on the backend of a consoles life. The big three are going to all show profits. Why rock the boat when you’re making money? I think this fact alone will extend the life if this generations consoles.

a) the rising cost is one of the reasons the next gen will come sooner than later...as wii passes the 50% mark, developers will have to choose between paying more and taking longer to develop games for <1/2 the market or developing games faster and cheaper to sell to >1/2 the market...so ps360 game development will slow down and ms/sony will want to do something to get more licensing fees and to reposition themselves in the market to get a chance to be #1, not a distant 2nd/3rd

b) graphics aren't the only reason for upgrading consoles

c) ms can make a new console that is reliable, thus greatly helping their position in the market...it will also be even more powerful and cheaper to make and it will have improved controls (motion/ir) that will help them to reach the 90% of consumers that they can't currently reach

d) they can make much more money by launching a console that will be better positioned in the market...