I don't really think this will be a big one. I was thinking something more around under 250K would be disappointing, but I expect 3-600K sales.

Let me get this straight, you're expecting sales along the lines of The Wonderful 101 and Wii Fit U? For a 2D Mario game, that you can create your own levels with, that's being bundled?

Why?

Anything ABOVE 3 millions will disappoint me

500-600k will be easy. You have to keep in mind that you can't rely on COMG to predict Mario's LT sales, it just doesn't work. Super Mario 3D World ended with around 60 points but has currently sold approximately 650k in Japan. You also have to keep in mind that SMM has multiple SKUs on COMG along with bundles, unlike SM3DW, so the whole picture isn't being shown.

Furthermore, 2D Mario is almost always bigger in Europe than Japan (NSMBU being the exception). Considering that this is a level editor, it will be a hit in the west by default. That genre is just now getting big in Japan, so it will sell initially for Mario and then word of mouth will carry its legs, most likely. It's also replacing MK8 as the new standard bundle game in Japan, so we can expect a lot of sales to come from that as well.

And why is that?

Anything less than a million will disappoint me.

Because this is a full priced level editor, and I don't want the "game" to sell well, I hope a lot of people ignore it, I know I will be dissapointed :(

It's a full priced 2D Mario game with a level editor included. I guess LBP should be shunned as well?

I will never understand why games with limitless content are treated as lesser than those with limited content.

Less than 2 millions will be disappointing

It will sell 2 million by year end. If it sells less then im disappointed