"If it does release in 2016, and is not significantly more powerful than the PS4, consider it DOA."

Thinking it won't be significantly more powerfull is already stupid but that aside, power was never a factor for a concole's sucess. So, you saying it would be DOA based on power is 100% stupid. your sentence was basically? if this highly improbable thing happens it means a completely unrelated thing will be true.

"Not only are they going to lose some of their fan base after releasing only 4 years after the Wii U"

4 years is just one year shorter than usual, wii u will end with about the same amount of first party gems as previous consoles.

"which also meant moving 1 1/2 years or so worth of Wii U games over to it"

"Especially when they'll be able to get a PS4 (which has all those great games coming out next year) for just $299."

I don't know what's funnier, saying ps4 will have many great games coming next year or calling $299 "just" when ps4 could already cost $299 right now.

lol because you say so?

"but the core market is mostly going to ignore it"

seriously, troll harder than that.

please, nintendo always competes directly and that won't change. besides, the only thing they said (and that was just miyamoto) was that they don't pursue high end specs (but neither does sony or MS).

tone down on the trolling.

With Wii they certainly didn't, and "console with a brand new concept" sound like they aiming something similar.

I'll also add Mega Drive/Genesis launched 3 years after its predecessor launched, 360 was released 4 years into the Xbox and we knew it was on the way 3 years in.

I would maybe pay $100 for one.  Does it have Netflix, Hulu, and Hbo go?

That was not only MS's first console, it was launched two years after the first console of that gen (the DC) was launched.  The Wii U was the 1st console of this gen to launch, and Nintendo has a legacy live up to and pretty loyal fanbase to appease.  Completely different situations.

The NX, if released in Holiday 2016, will be going head to head with a $299 PS4 (the same price they are probably going to try to launch the NX at), in what could be its peak year.  And, like I said, if they are not going to outperform the PS4 in an attempt to be affordable, they will be ignored by the core market.  The market that is still kicking.  And if they are trying to have some kinda gimmick with the NX to appeal to casuals, they are obviously still on the wrong path, as the casuals are mostly gone. 

If this is the scenerio, the NX will suffer the same fate as the Wii U.  Selling only to the hardcore Nintendo fans.  How many that are still around after being abandoned halfway through this gen.

Sorry what? Being their first console doesn't change the situation at all neither does the DC's release in fact both of those makes it even worse you're moving goal posts here, Xbox was 3 years in and came out later when MS said that the's another console coming and all of this was just to get the 360 out before any Sony console.

NX may possibly be replacing 2 platforms and carry two markets, casuals are also far from gone that's a misconception 3DS titles like Toodachi Life proved this, they just haven't been catered to this gen. Developers misinterpreted how to cater to them.

Lol, no.  You're just trying to make any situation that Nintendo finds itself in seem better than it really is. Which may help you feel better about it, but it won't change the reality of the situation.  Abandoning your fans just 2 1/2-3 years in, which is what they have done with the lack of exclusives and moving them to the NX, is not going to be excused.  Not saying there will be a huge drop in their loyal fans (there actually aren't that many around anymore, not enough to make a console successful, anyway), but there will be a sizeable chunk who say enough is enough.

And casuals may not have completely abandoned handheld gaming, but they are leaving.  The 3DS, without any real competition, is going to struggle to sell half of the DS (~77M), which had some good competition from the PSP.  Heck, this handheld gen didn't even have a big enough market for two consoles to do well, unlike last gen.  It's obvious that smartphones and tablets have seriously hurt handhelds.  Also, if the NX is aiming to be a jack of both markets, it will most likely end up being a master of neither.

No it's more you wanting to see it as bleak as that's probably what you're hoping for, here's the reality of the situation the only people who are mainly taking issue with this are the minorities on forums like yourself to the mass market NX coming next year is not even an issue as most people today are used to buying new gadgets like iPhone each year so a 4 year period between Wii U and NX is not a thing to them it's not 2-3 years as you're trying to push as here in years 3 U owners are still getting good game releases. Wii U has as much exclusives to rival the other consoles in fact it's library is considered better at the moment by many, I guarantee you the few online complaining are nowhere near enough to be sizeable and are likely to be only blowing hot air because once they see first party games their tune changes.

Half of DS sales is still in the top 10 total sales of any hardware, PS3 only sold half of what PS2 sold is that a bad thing? No because the amount sold is still massive this part of your post is almost comical to suggest 77m is bad as GBA sold around 80m which suggests the opposite in that phones and tablets haven't hurt the portable market as that figure shows the market share is pretty much as high as any other time. In fact only DS, GBA and the GB would have sold more and tbh it may outsell the GBA in the end.

The reason Vita fell off is not because of market share as it's clear the's more then enough it's because Sony refused to support it, PSP only sold well because it was a haven for piracy and homebrew, you could buy one then go on ebay and buy a memory stick with a load of games even emulated games. FFVII was running on PSP before it was even on PSN, PS Vita plugged the homebrew and piracy holes which meant Sony had to actually support it this time but they couldn't because they poured everything into the PS4 so the former dropped off hard.

Being a platform that holds both markets will boost it, Nintendo's combined output across both 3DS and Wii U each year is unrivalled, that kind of output focused on one platform changes the landscape for NX immensely, no portable competition means that 3DS owners will have a good migration percentage to the newer platform earlier on and those 77-80m 3DS owners suddenly become 77-80m potential NX owners. No matter how you try to look at it that is a sizable figure and well higher the number of Wii U owners so even if every Wii U owner did as you claim the number of 3DS owners offsets them with ease, even half of 3DS owners at around 40m beats them out.