yeah it won't happen to have a million.  the first one is a retailer exclusive and limited prints.  so it is not really about 100 million install base of the Wii, but it is more due to the limited prints and only a single retailer having that game.   plus Xenoblade 3D which is exclusive to n3DS which also doesn't make sense to push it to a bigger install base of 3Ds.

not sure on the sales of MP 10.  But Mario Maker can really break a million this year. and Nintendo is marketing it properly. 

Xenoblade Chronicles X

Mario Maker

Yoshi's Woolly World (possibly)

I really think Mario Maker is gonna be a BIG hit. This, Pikmin 3 and Lego City might reach the 1 million milestone.

Easy.

I feel like mario maker is guaranteed million seller by the end of the year.
Yoshi has a pretty good chance, but I don't see XCX or starfox selling a million this year just because of how late they are releasing.

Forgot about Yoshi, that game has a chance.
Star Fox would need some good marketing but it has a shot as well.

There's no way XCX can do it this year, it'll be tough for it to pull a million lifetime sadly. Unless Nintendo puts out some insane marketing campaign for the game. And when I say insane I mean even more than Mario Kart and Splatoon levels.

Mario Maker will hit it. So will Star Fox, Yoshi's Wooly World and possibly Xenoblade.

Mario Maker and Yoshi's Woolly World, maybe even Star Fox, I doubt Xenoblade will top 1m this year.

Honestly I strongly doubt any of them will reach it this year but Xenoblade might do it down the road. I'm not sure Yoshi and Star Fox ever will.