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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japans PS3 Nightmare

PinkPoop said:
The amount of conjecture and hyperbole on these forums and this thread is hilarity x 10. Will the jump the gun fanboys at least wait until hot shots golf comes out before they predict "dire times" for the PS3.

So when Hot Shots Golf comes out and fails to lift the sales of PS3 hardware, can we then predict dire times for the PS3? Can we have that in writing? When this happens does that mean we can end the "Wait for X" mentality that comes around after every major failed PS3 game launch in Japan?

 



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DonWii said:
Larry is definately washimul. Hus was very, very recent compared to Larry.

 I've been saying that for ages, and i still don't get why the mods don't try an IP check...




larry said:
CameronHall1 said:
For the first time in Japan Ps3 has sold under 10,000 units with 8,872. what does sony needs to do to increase sells. maybe a pricecut and software will help us all

in june MONSTER KINGDOM and NINJA GAIDEN SIGMA would be released followed by MINNA GOLF 5 in JULY.

sales of ps3 hardware would increase a lot in june and also july.

MINNA GOLF 5 would sell atleast 250 000 copies and sell 40 k ps3s in its launch week.

however , the chart reveals that ps3 has beaten x360 4:1 last week and as always x360 is at the bottom of the list.

ps3's good times are just about to begin in june with Lair,MK,NGS.


Pffff... Not another guy like this!...

Yeahyeah... In June PS3 will sell so much that it will threaten the Wii... And with what game?! MINN GOLF 5... YEY!

C'mon now... Do you believe in your own lies?!...

Hus said: March - PS3 is gonna kick competitions ass with Gundam Mosou... Still waiting for that one!!!

Then he said: April is the month where it will be decided cause PS3 in Europe launch had shortage (That was bullshit too)... And it never happened...

Then Kwaad said: Wait for motorstorm... The storm is coming....... What storm...?! Wii storm you mean?!

 

And there you have another one... And yes, if you want to believe your own lies... Thats fine... Dream on in your fantasy world where PS3 will crush Wii and X360 with less then 10k sales a week in Japan... Pfffff!!!

 

And when this doesn't happen... You're gonna say October... Then November...

 

Whatever dude... I'm tired of you!



THE NETHERLANDS

This is what Japan in June looks like.............

Wii:

Harvest Moon: Tree of PeaceNatsumeMarvelous02007-06-072007-06-07  
Mahou Sensei Negima!? Neo-Pactio Fight!!ZzTBAKonami02007-06-142007-06-14  
Hajime no Ippo: The Fighting RevolutionGrand Prix / CaviaAQ Interactive02007-06-212007-06-21  
Donkey JetPaonNintendo02007-06-282007-06-28

PS3:

My Summer Holiday 3 Sony Computer EntertainmentSony Computer EntertainmentYes 5th June 2007

Hot Shots 5, Ninja Gadien, Lair, and MK comes out as well. (According to people in this Thread)

That's the only one that Wikipedia shows.

In the US from now till the end of June.

Wii:

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's EndEurocomDisney Int.02007-05-222007-05-22
Tamagotchi: Party On!Namco BandaiNamco Bandai 02007-05-29 29 May 2007
Mario Party 8Hudson SoftNintendo02007-05-292007-05-29
Mortal Kombat: ArmageddonJGIMidway 02007-05-292007-05-29
Ultimate Duck HuntingMid Carolina MediaDetn8 Games02007-06 June 2007
Big Brain Academy: Wii DegreeNintendoNintendo 02007-06-112007-06-11
Mercury Meltdown RevolutionIgnition BanburyIgnition 02007-06-122007-06-12
Fantastic 4: Rise of the Silver Surfer7 StudiosTake-Two  02007-06-152007-06-15
Resident Evil 4: Wii EditionCapcomCapcom02007-06-19 19 June 2007
Pokémon Battle RevolutionGenius SonorityNintendo02007-06-252007-06-25
Alien SyndromeTotally GamesSega02007-06-262007-06-26
Dave Mirra BMX Challenge
Dave Mirra Racing Wii EU
Left FieldCrave
505 GamesEU
 02007-06-262007-06-26
Driver: Parallel LinesReflections Int.Ubisoft 02007-06-262007-06-26
Dance Dance Revolution: Hottest PartyKonamiKonami02007-06-292007-06-29
Elevator ActionZzTBA505 Games 02007-06-302007-06-30

PS3:

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End EurocomBuena Vista GamesNo 02007-05-22 22 May 2007
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Vegas Ubisoft MontrealUbisoftNo02007-05-22 22 May 2007
Sega Rally Revo SEGA Driving StudioSEGANo 02007-06 June 2007
Singstar 3 SCE Studios LondonSCEEYes 02007-06 June 2007
Stuntman Ignition Paradigm EntertainmentTHQNo  02007-06 June 2007
Rogue Warrior: Black Razor Zombie StudiosBethesdaNo02007-06 June 2007
Heavenly Sword Ninja TheorySCEYes02007-06-01 1 June 2007
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter 2 Red Storm EntertainmentUbisoftNo02007-06-05 5 June 2007

 

This is from Wikipedia. How is the PS3 suppose to catch the Wii with that? lol



 

  

 

Today will have been 6 months since the PS3 launched in USA. It's already been 6 months since initial launch in Japan since the 11th. I want some sleuthful VGChartz patrons to check the books and see how each competitor stood in 6 months time. To see who won the generation and to compare to others in that 6-month span.
I want them to find some parallels between winner of each generation and standing in 6 months.

Only one generation was ever truly competitive in the history of videogaming and that was the 4th. And only in certain regions not worldwide. The contest is ALWAYS won early. In fact most of the battle has already been fought before the bell rings.

There is no time for "wait-for-this". In THIS realm good things DON'T come to those who wait.

John Lucas



Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot

WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!

 

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John, there really are no paralells between any system and how it did in the future vs. anyone. In the SNES/Gen era, the Genesis was running rampant over the NES. The SNES launched, and took the lead due to massive Japan sales, and solid US sales. The SNES started slow, and built up, the Genesis stayed the same throughout. In the N64/PS1 era, the N64 outpaced the PS1 hugely at launch, but due to the PS1 being released a year early, the N64 never truely overcame the lead, and ended up being incredibly left behind after the PS1 got its major software in RE2 and FFVII. In the PS2 era, the PS2 never had any remote competition. The only real major 'key' were lots of titles for every market, and having them come out within 1-12mo after the systems launch. In the N64 era, the reason, I believe, it lost was due to very poor software titles. Yes, you had Mario, but nothing else. In the US, you had Turok and a few others, which is probably why the US sold 75% of the consoles. The N64 certainly had more western-targeted software in LoZ:OoT, Goldeneye, and Turok. The contest isn't always won early. Its won in the 6-18mo period. However, this generation is unlike any other, John Lucas. You have 3 actual players, and not a marginalized sucky-crap Nintendo, a newcomer in MS, a dead Sega and a powerful Playstation. You have a striving, strong Nintendo, a crafty Microsoft, and a fallen king in Playstation. Anything could happen. Sony is really going for the 10-year strategy. They are trying to fit 6 or 7 years worth of good software into 10 years :-p IMO, I wouldn't be too worried about Sony in Japan. Yes, sales are sucking, but they have enough money, and enough multi-ports to stay alive and decent. None of the games (HSG, NGS, ect) are going to save the PS3. They'll all help. Larry said HSG will sell 40k systems o/w. That is very reasonable. But what will 40k systems do when the Wii sells 70k that same week, and that being a LOW week? HSG should sell 250k-300k, NGS could do 150k, but how does that matter when a 9 month old Wii Sports and Wii Play will end up selling nearly 200k that month combined?



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

mrstickball said:
John, there really are no paralells between any system and how it did in the future vs. anyone.

To a certain extent you're correct, you can't really look at a collection of consoles and say "Console A represents the PS3, Console B represents the XBox 360 and Console C represents the Wii" ... Where you are wrong is that we can tell a lot about how this generation will play out by considering how previous consoles compared to their competition.

Above and beyond all else, what we have learned from previous generations is that the only perfromance publishers care about is sales performance and the only feature gamers care about is access to high quality games; the result of this is that customers and developers chase eachother around which causes a feedback loop that tends to make the most popular system sell dramatically better than its competition.

Now, the reason I would say that this generation is going to end up being so one sided simply boils down to cost ...

For consumers the Wii is a dramatically less expensive piece of hardware, with less expensive games and is (overall) a very affordable. For developers the Wii is dramatically less expensive to develop games for which means for the same investment in gaming you can produce more games. The overall result of this means that once the Wii  gets a solid lead it will become nearly impossible to take it away from it; why would a gamer spend $100 or $200 more for a system which has less games, and why would a developer spend 2 to 4 times as much to develop a game for a system that has a smaller userbase.



mrstickball said:
John, there really are no paralells between any system and how it did in the future vs. anyone. In the SNES/Gen era, the Genesis was running rampant over the NES. The SNES launched, and took the lead due to massive Japan sales, and solid US sales. The SNES started slow, and built up, the Genesis stayed the same throughout. In the N64/PS1 era, the N64 outpaced the PS1 hugely at launch, but due to the PS1 being released a year early, the N64 never truely overcame the lead, and ended up being incredibly left behind after the PS1 got its major software in RE2 and FFVII. In the PS2 era, the PS2 never had any remote competition. The only real major 'key' were lots of titles for every market, and having them come out within 1-12mo after the systems launch. In the N64 era, the reason, I believe, it lost was due to very poor software titles. Yes, you had Mario, but nothing else. In the US, you had Turok and a few others, which is probably why the US sold 75% of the consoles. The N64 certainly had more western-targeted software in LoZ:OoT, Goldeneye, and Turok. The contest isn't always won early. Its won in the 6-18mo period. However, this generation is unlike any other, John Lucas. You have 3 actual players, and not a marginalized sucky-crap Nintendo, a newcomer in MS, a dead Sega and a powerful Playstation. You have a striving, strong Nintendo, a crafty Microsoft, and a fallen king in Playstation. Anything could happen. Sony is really going for the 10-year strategy. They are trying to fit 6 or 7 years worth of good software into 10 years :-p IMO, I wouldn't be too worried about Sony in Japan. Yes, sales are sucking, but they have enough money, and enough multi-ports to stay alive and decent. None of the games (HSG, NGS, ect) are going to save the PS3. They'll all help. Larry said HSG will sell 40k systems o/w. That is very reasonable. But what will 40k systems do when the Wii sells 70k that same week, and that being a LOW week? HSG should sell 250k-300k, NGS could do 150k, but how does that matter when a 9 month old Wii Sports and Wii Play will end up selling nearly 200k that month combined?

You missed the point, Mr. Stickball.

I'm talking sales only. Check the sales figures. Who was ahead. Who was behind. Who was in the middle. And check if the champ of each generation corresponded accordingly. I'm talking more of head-to-head sales as all systems launched not cumulative sales since all systems launched differently.

It takes about 6 months to show how a generation will end up except for one (the 4th between SNES & Genesis) and only in certain regions.

Genesis running rampant over NES. I should hope so it being a vastly more abled system. A difference that actually counts which is why we separate systems into generations. Actually I think NES was still holding its own against Genesis if I remember correctly so 16-bit Genesis was actually in contest with an 8-bit NES which is sort of ridiculous when you think about it.

I'm gonna come on out and just say it. PS3 will not survive past 2009. I've seen this for a long time. Whether they choose to make a PS4 or even exit the gamebusiness is up to them but the PS3 is dead in the water.

That "too early to call" cliché is old hat and simply not well thought out. It's not going to be good enough for them to make their business plan work for them. They depend on software sales to get ahead. They have PS2 undoing the PS3. They're competing against themselves. The PS2 loyals won't switch over. And right now it's okay since PS2 Phenomenon still has strength in 7th gen. But it won't last much longer. When PS2 finally rides off into the sunset rude awakening is awaiting Sony.

Exodus is coming. The developers are going to abandon Sony due to poor sales. Of THEIR games and Sony's consoles which in turn further hampers viable sales of their games. Since it takes more money to make games on Sony's platform it takes more sales to make up the difference. This is not happening. You barely see a PS3 title IN the top 50 and if you do you don't see 'em for long from week to week.

There WILL be no turnaround. It's over. They simply have to hang on for the rest of the gen preserving what they still have 'cause #1 spot is irrevocably lost. And the way it's going #2 is about to be lost as well. If they fall behind Microsoft in Japan, it's the ultimate in patheticness. That will be the shame heard 'round the world.

Sony's actually lucky Microsoft doesn't have its game together. MS is not capitalizing on Sony's weak points. They still are a non-factor in Europe and that could have been a region they could make their mark since Europeans get so overlooked in the gamemarket for releases and such. If Microsoft knew what they were doing the results would have been even worse for Sony.

You're right every generation's different but some things never change. Some things are evergreen in this business. The "battle" for videogame supremacy is fought long before the launch and the face-off is usually always brief. The GOAT's of the N64 didn't make a difference for Nintendo and neither will it be the same for Sony's PS3.

Not a bash, just the cold hard facts. I don't deal well with delusion. Gotta be a realist and call it down the middle.

John Lucas



Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot

WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!

 

Sony is not dead yet. They have until the end of this year to boost sales, and get some momentum going. If they end a distant third by the end of this year, then they will really struggle (or effectively be dead in the water).

You talk about generations - Sony is pushing the PS3 as the "next" generation - i.e. beyond both the 360 & Wii. I think they will have some success (based on what I have seen from their gamers day) - but they will need more than this:

 - Nintendo *will* win the casual gamers (biggest market)
 - MS *will* win PC/hardcore/online gamers (profitable/hard-core gaming market)

Sony has a chance of winning the "cool" gamers - kids (mainly boys) in the age bracket 10-25. The problem is this age bracket is one of the most price sensitive, and the PS3 is just too expensive.... for now.

...

Another factor missing from your analysis is this: why did those other consoles "fail" (i.e. drop out) of the contest for that generation? Money? Dropping out of test market?

Sony has the money, and Sony *will* have the games (plenty of internally developed games at the least). Unless MS completely outplays them (better games), Sony will have success - and this will build. It may take a couple of years before sales significantly boost for the PS3 though.

As always, it comes down to the quality/innovation of the games. If MS can out-develop Sony - then the PS3 may well be doomed. But its definitely not over yet.

 



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Game Assessment website

Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099

Plz, dont tell hot shot golf is gonna sell that much, at least in its first months It will sell when the console is at a decent prize, remember most PS3 owners are either really hardcore or just people that want bluray players, and I doubt those people will buy a golf game instead of other options.