Japans PS3 Nightmare

[johnlucas]

mrstickball said:
John, there really are no paralells between any system and how it did in the future vs. anyone. In the SNES/Gen era, the Genesis was running rampant over the NES. The SNES launched, and took the lead due to massive Japan sales, and solid US sales. The SNES started slow, and built up, the Genesis stayed the same throughout. In the N64/PS1 era, the N64 outpaced the PS1 hugely at launch, but due to the PS1 being released a year early, the N64 never truely overcame the lead, and ended up being incredibly left behind after the PS1 got its major software in RE2 and FFVII. In the PS2 era, the PS2 never had any remote competition. The only real major 'key' were lots of titles for every market, and having them come out within 1-12mo after the systems launch. In the N64 era, the reason, I believe, it lost was due to very poor software titles. Yes, you had Mario, but nothing else. In the US, you had Turok and a few others, which is probably why the US sold 75% of the consoles. The N64 certainly had more western-targeted software in LoZ:OoT, Goldeneye, and Turok. The contest isn't always won early. Its won in the 6-18mo period. However, this generation is unlike any other, John Lucas. You have 3 actual players, and not a marginalized sucky-crap Nintendo, a newcomer in MS, a dead Sega and a powerful Playstation. You have a striving, strong Nintendo, a crafty Microsoft, and a fallen king in Playstation. Anything could happen. Sony is really going for the 10-year strategy. They are trying to fit 6 or 7 years worth of good software into 10 years :-p IMO, I wouldn't be too worried about Sony in Japan. Yes, sales are sucking, but they have enough money, and enough multi-ports to stay alive and decent. None of the games (HSG, NGS, ect) are going to save the PS3. They'll all help. Larry said HSG will sell 40k systems o/w. That is very reasonable. But what will 40k systems do when the Wii sells 70k that same week, and that being a LOW week? HSG should sell 250k-300k, NGS could do 150k, but how does that matter when a 9 month old Wii Sports and Wii Play will end up selling nearly 200k that month combined?

You missed the point, Mr. Stickball.

I'm talking sales only. Check the sales figures. Who was ahead. Who was behind. Who was in the middle. And check if the champ of each generation corresponded accordingly. I'm talking more of head-to-head sales as all systems launched not cumulative sales since all systems launched differently.

It takes about 6 months to show how a generation will end up except for one (the 4th between SNES & Genesis) and only in certain regions.

Genesis running rampant over NES. I should hope so it being a vastly more abled system. A difference that actually counts which is why we separate systems into generations. Actually I think NES was still holding its own against Genesis if I remember correctly so 16-bit Genesis was actually in contest with an 8-bit NES which is sort of ridiculous when you think about it.

I'm gonna come on out and just say it. PS3 will not survive past 2009. I've seen this for a long time. Whether they choose to make a PS4 or even exit the gamebusiness is up to them but the PS3 is dead in the water.

That "too early to call" cliché is old hat and simply not well thought out. It's not going to be good enough for them to make their business plan work for them. They depend on software sales to get ahead. They have PS2 undoing the PS3. They're competing against themselves. The PS2 loyals won't switch over. And right now it's okay since PS2 Phenomenon still has strength in 7th gen. But it won't last much longer. When PS2 finally rides off into the sunset rude awakening is awaiting Sony.

Exodus is coming. The developers are going to abandon Sony due to poor sales. Of THEIR games and Sony's consoles which in turn further hampers viable sales of their games. Since it takes more money to make games on Sony's platform it takes more sales to make up the difference. This is not happening. You barely see a PS3 title IN the top 50 and if you do you don't see 'em for long from week to week.

There WILL be no turnaround. It's over. They simply have to hang on for the rest of the gen preserving what they still have 'cause #1 spot is irrevocably lost. And the way it's going #2 is about to be lost as well. If they fall behind Microsoft in Japan, it's the ultimate in patheticness. That will be the shame heard 'round the world.

Sony's actually lucky Microsoft doesn't have its game together. MS is not capitalizing on Sony's weak points. They still are a non-factor in Europe and that could have been a region they could make their mark since Europeans get so overlooked in the gamemarket for releases and such. If Microsoft knew what they were doing the results would have been even worse for Sony.

You're right every generation's different but some things never change. Some things are evergreen in this business. The "battle" for videogame supremacy is fought long before the launch and the face-off is usually always brief. The GOAT's of the N64 didn't make a difference for Nintendo and neither will it be the same for Sony's PS3.

Not a bash, just the cold hard facts. I don't deal well with delusion. Gotta be a realist and call it down the middle.

John Lucas