John, there really are no paralells between any system and how it did in the future vs. anyone. In the SNES/Gen era, the Genesis was running rampant over the NES. The SNES launched, and took the lead due to massive Japan sales, and solid US sales. The SNES started slow, and built up, the Genesis stayed the same throughout. In the N64/PS1 era, the N64 outpaced the PS1 hugely at launch, but due to the PS1 being released a year early, the N64 never truely overcame the lead, and ended up being incredibly left behind after the PS1 got its major software in RE2 and FFVII. In the PS2 era, the PS2 never had any remote competition. The only real major 'key' were lots of titles for every market, and having them come out within 1-12mo after the systems launch. In the N64 era, the reason, I believe, it lost was due to very poor software titles. Yes, you had Mario, but nothing else. In the US, you had Turok and a few others, which is probably why the US sold 75% of the consoles. The N64 certainly had more western-targeted software in LoZ:OoT, Goldeneye, and Turok. The contest isn't always won early. Its won in the 6-18mo period. However, this generation is unlike any other, John Lucas. You have 3 actual players, and not a marginalized sucky-crap Nintendo, a newcomer in MS, a dead Sega and a powerful Playstation. You have a striving, strong Nintendo, a crafty Microsoft, and a fallen king in Playstation. Anything could happen. Sony is really going for the 10-year strategy. They are trying to fit 6 or 7 years worth of good software into 10 years :-p IMO, I wouldn't be too worried about Sony in Japan. Yes, sales are sucking, but they have enough money, and enough multi-ports to stay alive and decent. None of the games (HSG, NGS, ect) are going to save the PS3. They'll all help. Larry said HSG will sell 40k systems o/w. That is very reasonable. But what will 40k systems do when the Wii sells 70k that same week, and that being a LOW week? HSG should sell 250k-300k, NGS could do 150k, but how does that matter when a 9 month old Wii Sports and Wii Play will end up selling nearly 200k that month combined?
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
