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Forums - Politics Discussion - Greece Defaults. What now?

Lafiel said:
MikeRox said:

Have you tried adding the United Kingdom to your graph? You'll find it's below Greece for pretty much the entirity of whatever they are trying to analyse there... (hint, it's not raw numbers spending)

The spotlight is on Greece because you're quite simply bankrupt. Cannot afford to sustain your current way of life and are now throwing all the toys out of the pram because of this. It's not the Greek people's fault though. Greece simply should never have been allowed to join the single currency. It was said at the time, and it is glaringly apparant now.

[...] 

Sure there was some shady business with Goldmann Sachs going on to hide part of their debts, but I'm sure the inspectors knew, yet some people made the decision to expand the Eurozone to Greece anyway, maybe even with the best intentions of accelrating the growth of the Greek economy with low interest debts they gained access to in the Eurozone

[...]

Hint: Greek defence spending. They basically gave us money to buy their products. Both parties ar at fault.



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Some predictions:

Ultimately if Greece takes the position that they will not try to pay their debts, their banking system will collapse and  they will have difficulties to do commerce with other countries. This leads to isolation, since no one will trust them as counter party for commercial transactions. It will drift into similar position as Argentina whose money is not exhangeable so really the only option for commerce is exchanging goods for goods. Does not work so well in practise.

If isolation continues for long, nationalism will start raising, and hate towards other countries, especially EU, will increase. Human nature, fault is always on someone elses side. If it goes bad enough, new leaders will raise...and Greece is heading towards North Korean model.

It is a sad story, really

 

 



routsounmanman said:
MikeRox said:

The spotlight is on Greece because you're quite simply bankrupt. Cannot afford to sustain your current way of life and are now throwing all the toys out of the pram because of this.

Now, yes, of course. We have closed the banks, for crying out loud! At the start of the crisis though, Greece, Ireland and Portugal where not that much different (although I admit Greek economy is the weaker of the three).

It's not the Greek people's fault though. Greece simply should never have been allowed to join the single currency. It was said at the time, and it is glaringly apparant now.

 

Totally agree here. I could advocate why returning to national currency would be beneficial for us, enduring the short-term pain.




Sadly this is where Greece's problems kick in. The logical thing, would be to reduce Greece's debt, and put the country on a sustainable path back to prosperity. However, Portugal and Ireland took their medicine without such concessions. More so though, if Greece is allowed haircuts on it's debts, Spain and Italy etc will start to demand the same.

There is also the fallout in Germany where the population seem to be incredibly reluctant to any kind of support for Greece. I suspect Angela Merkel would be more forgiving in terms, were it not such a vote loser in Germany.



RIP Dad 25/11/51 - 13/12/13. You will be missed but never forgotten.

Qwark said:
routsounmanman said:


Indeed now it is, after 3 horrendous bailout programs that have failed miserably so far (even the IMF has openly admited to misjudging the effects of austerity and miscalculating Greece growth rates). The results - GDP 26% down, highest unemployment in EU, all while the debt has exploded.

Or do you mean at the start of the crisis? Please enlighten me as to why.

The situation was crap to start with, otherwise they wouldn't even need help, let there be no doubt about that. Greece sure as hell ain't Denmark or the Netherlands. I agree that the bailouts where poorly executed but putting the full blame on EU isn't correct although they didn't make the situation any better and presumably quite a bit worse. [...]


Quite a bit worse? Is -26% of GDP "quite worse"? Even during war, countries lose less GDP! The programs were absolute disasters!

PS: I am of course not blaming only the EU, our politicians are corrupt and useless and even we, as people resist to some reforms. But to insist on the same route (have you seen the latest creditors paper sent to us - blackmailed actually) is simply stupid.



MikeRox said:
routsounmanman said:




Sadly this is where Greece's problems kick in. The logical thing, would be to reduce Greece's debt, and put the country on a sustainable path back to prosperity. However, Portugal and Ireland took their medicine without such concessions. More so though, if Greece is allowed haircuts on it's debts, Spain and Italy etc will start to demand the same.

There is also the fallout in Germany where the population seem to be incredibly reluctant to any kind of support for Greece. I suspect Angela Merkel would be more forgiving in terms, were it not such a vote loser in Germany.

Let's not forget UK which is probably even more reluctant against another hopeless investment, bringing the BRexit closer. Even if you erase all Greece it debts it's economic system and taxation system are corrupt to the core. The path back to prospeirity is the EU parlement completely taking completely over for 2 years and making radical changes aka transforming it in a northern European country, I doubt Greece is wanting that.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

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MikeRox said:
routsounmanman said:




Sadly this is where Greece's problems kick in. The logical thing, would be to reduce Greece's debt, and put the country on a sustainable path back to prosperity. However, Portugal and Ireland took their medicine without such concessions. More so though, if Greece is allowed haircuts on it's debts, Spain and Italy etc will start to demand the same.

 

Not the same kind of medicine, unfortunately. Twice as much austerity in Greece, with a crappy program to boot.



Qwark said:
DeusXmachina said:

We made it!!!! "No" Won. After all that disgusting propaganda by the media, the people choose what they believed to be the best choice.


Perhaps but don't cry about a grexit when that happens, which is with an eye on brexit not a weird idea. Think with me on this GB doesn't want to invest in Greece so pissing them of would bring a brexit closer. GB is the sixth economy of the world and 15% of the BNP of the entire EU. 

Is keeping Greece really worth it to have a bigger chance of GB leaving the EU. I say they've chosen their path kick them out erase the debts and take the Euro back. Besides a closed boundary between Greece and EU doesn't hurt EU, since they won't say it directly but they sure as hell don't want those illegal uneducated imigrants within EU boundaries.

Trust me, if we leave the eurozone the last thing i'll do is cry.



DeusXmachina said:
Qwark said:


Perhaps but don't cry about a grexit when that happens, which is with an eye on brexit not a weird idea. Think with me on this GB doesn't want to invest in Greece so pissing them of would bring a brexit closer. GB is the sixth economy of the world and 15% of the BNP of the entire EU. 

Is keeping Greece really worth it to have a bigger chance of GB leaving the EU. I say they've chosen their path kick them out erase the debts and take the Euro back. Besides a closed boundary between Greece and EU doesn't hurt EU, since they won't say it directly but they sure as hell don't want those illegal uneducated imigrants within EU boundaries.

Trust me, if we leave the eurozone the last thing i'll do is cry.

W'll see I think the situation for the country is hopeless in any way with the Euro it's like taking a chemo cure to cure the internal corruption/tumors with the worst side effects imaginable. Without the Euro going back to the original drahgmar would also be a dissaster for your tourism sector, but on the bright side we could ask ourselfes how much further can the country sink anyway and Greece could get Russian support.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

0815user said:
mai said:
0815user said:
countries debts are overrated in my opinion because unlike individuals no one can really force a country to pay them back. I mean what do you want to do? Invade them? And even if a county does default, basic needs towards the people will always be provided no matter how much debt they have.

 

The EU could very well kill off Greece economically, if they would want to. It would be stupid, of course, but the option to cut all new funding and trade relationships is a threat that can be made towards a country refusing to repay a debt.



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I win if Emmanuel Macron wins the french presidential election May 7th 2017.

DeusXmachina said:
Qwark said:


Perhaps but don't cry about a grexit when that happens, which is with an eye on brexit not a weird idea. Think with me on this GB doesn't want to invest in Greece so pissing them of would bring a brexit closer. GB is the sixth economy of the world and 15% of the BNP of the entire EU. 

Is keeping Greece really worth it to have a bigger chance of GB leaving the EU. I say they've chosen their path kick them out erase the debts and take the Euro back. Besides a closed boundary between Greece and EU doesn't hurt EU, since they won't say it directly but they sure as hell don't want those illegal uneducated imigrants within EU boundaries.

Trust me, if we leave the eurozone the last thing i'll do is cry.


Trust me, we will. Short-term the effects will be VERY painful. Still better than this mess, though.