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Forums - Politics Discussion - Greece Defaults. What now?

palou said:
This discussion has drifted quite a bit. Oh well.

If that's about our little talk with generic-user-1, I'd like to think we're staying pretty much on topic, just showing a bird's eye perspective on things, so people see a forest behind that Greek tree.

Not sure what else there could be said about Greece specifically -- Lagarde has showed a middle finger to that referendum, bending over entire nation to please IMF needs so to speak -- these are the last news I got.



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mai said:
generic-user-1 said:

i dont see any probles with the historical trend.  the only problems are the proections and they ave to adust them every year so i dont real care about them.

Projections might differ, but I don't see how you could expect it to last for decades with this trend. The fact that in most major local markets the oil production is stagnating at best or quotes from oil companies officials who expect it to decline do not raise any doubts in your prognosis?

Here's another litttle chart for you, was done before that little dive in oil prices. It's not intended to represent any actual data, purely illustratory, to give an idea how the scissors of solvent demand decline and cost of production growth kills cheap oil-based prosperity at accelerated rate. In debt-driven economies the decline in demand is almost a given, so if you expect that some actual oil that's in the ground will be put to a good use, forget it, it stays in the ground -- not enough solvent demand for excavation. That's why btw companies are cutting capex (aka investment into future productive work, long-term goal) in favour of buybacks (aka supporting financial pyramid, short-term goals). Do you expect oil production to grow with cuts in capex, even though before it barely was kept afloat by increasing capex?

BTW just got updated -- peak of EU's electricity generation -- but surely that's because how home appliances and cars got energy efficient these days, not a red flag of nearest future at all :D Not sure in what world you're living in but my water boiler is almost as twice power hungry as this good old buddy from the 70s. Cars and home appliances are indeed more energy efficient in their main tasks, but they do so much more these days at cost of more energy used, and there's so much more of them that I'm not sure how electricity generation could decline without underlying economic problems causing it. It's like saying: hey, we've got more food efficient by eating less food! :D

there are many states who have to sell oil. they cant decide that the price is to low. you cant just say no to your only income.

last time i checked the smaller oil companies were deep in the red, they dont buy back stock, the buy back are mostly done by the dieing giant bluechips.

 

the only place where cars didnt decreased energie consumption are the US of A, they bought bigger and bigger cars. the rest of the world, not. its clear that you dont decrease your energie consumption if you buy the biggest cars of the worst companys. 

we look at a 10 year trend of decreasing energie generation(sure some years are up a bit some down a lot, but thats the normal fluctuation produced by the economy). there is just no need for more cars in europe, or driving more.  and you dont need a bigger fridge at some point.  and its not just efficiency, there are big trends that lead to less energie consumption. laptops are the new normal, not PCs, and most things can be done with a tablet or phone.

 



generic-user-1 said:

there are many states who have to sell oil. they cant decide that the price is to low. you cant just say no to your only income.

It's not about states, it's about lack of those who could pay for ever-growing production costs. Players on global markets sell smth to have a constant flow of foreign currency in their pockets for overseas operation, understandably keeping a great deal of accounts nominated in reserve currencies or currencies of primary buyers such as dollar or euro. If global financial system is no more, these two effectively rendered as cut paper. What any company with any sign of strategic planning will do in such cirsumstances? Will try to hedge risks, move opertations to other places, work out other options of mutual trade like swaps etc. The notion that someone have to sell smth is silly at best, and again a wishful thinking that global energy market will remain intact. It won't, market will shrink significantly for various reasons up to physical destruction of certain region markets.

generic-user-1 said:

we look at a 10 year trend of decreasing energie generation(sure some years are up a bit some down a lot, but thats the normal fluctuation produced by the economy).

High amplitude fluctuaitons kill people, you know ;)



mai said:
generic-user-1 said:

there are many states who have to sell oil. they cant decide that the price is to low. you cant just say no to your only income.

It's not about states, it's about lack of those who could pay for ever-growing production costs. Players on global markets sell smth to have a constant flow of foreign currency in their pockets for overseas operation, understandably keeping a great deal of accounts nominated in reserve currencies or currencies of primary buyers such as dollar or euro. If global financial system is no more, these two effectively rendered as cut paper. What any company with any sign of strategic planning will do in such cirsumstances? Will try to hedge risks, move opertations to other places, work out other options of mutual trade like swaps etc. The notion that someone have to sell smth is silly at best, and again a wishful thinking that global energy market will remain intact. It won't, market will shrink significantly for various reasons up to physical destruction of certain region markets.

generic-user-1 said:

we look at a 10 year trend of decreasing energie generation(sure some years are up a bit some down a lot, but thats the normal fluctuation produced by the economy).

High amplitude fluctuaitons kill people, you know ;)

if saudi arabia buys tanks and cars with oil, dollar or gold doesnt realy matter. they have to sell, they need the cars for keeping their people happy and te tanky if someone isnt happy. sames goes for all of the golf states.  and then there are the other oilstates, some need toilettpaper, all want cars, all want chemical goods, most have to buy gasoline.  the golf will turn to a desert if they stop selling oil, they produce nothing.  and dont fear for the euro, china and the us are drowning in debt,(and the us in a trade deficit that will grow alot when CA is totaly out of water). japan is a zombie for 20 years and the uk is taking new loans faster than greece ever did...



generic-user-1 said:

if saudi arabia buys tanks and cars with oil, dollar or gold doesnt realy matter. they have to sell, they need the cars for keeping their people happy and te tanky if someone isnt happy. sames goes for all of the golf states.  and then there are the other oilstates, some need toilettpaper, all want cars, all want chemical goods, most have to buy gasoline.  the golf will turn to a desert if they stop selling oil, they produce nothing.  and dont fear for the euro, china and the us are drowning in debt,(and the us in a trade deficit that will grow alot when CA is totaly out of water). japan is a zombie for 20 years and the uk is taking new loans faster than greece ever did...

Saudis have to sell smth at their own expense? Hardly, that'd have defeated the purpose.



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Nintendo is selling their IPs to Microsoft and this is true because:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=221391&page=1

^In regards to the topics of renewables that have been discussed here:
Abengoa, the Teetering Sun King of Spain, Prepares for End Game

ROFL, bwa-ha-ha-ha. Told you :D

As much as any other parasitic sector of economy after attracting sizeable amount of fools' money (aka investors) it's nearing bankruptcy leaving nothing but debt behind. RIP, we hardly knew ya.



mai said:

^In regards to the topics of renewables that have been discussed here:
Abengoa, the Teetering Sun King of Spain, Prepares for End Game

ROFL, bwa-ha-ha-ha. Told you :D

As much as any other parasitic sector of economy after attracting sizeable amount of fools' money (aka investors) it's nearing bankruptcy leaving nothing but debt behind. RIP, we hardly knew ya.

Abengoa is a bad example because it has been a scam, just like Bankia.

On the other hand, wind has been Spain's #1 energy source in the first quarter of 2015:

Ironically, Abengoa has produced 0% of it.



Player2 said:
mai said:

^In regards to the topics of renewables that have been discussed here:
Abengoa, the Teetering Sun King of Spain, Prepares for End Game

ROFL, bwa-ha-ha-ha. Told you :D

As much as any other parasitic sector of economy after attracting sizeable amount of fools' money (aka investors) it's nearing bankruptcy leaving nothing but debt behind. RIP, we hardly knew ya.

Abengoa is a bad example because it has been a scam, just like Bankia.

On the other hand, wind has been Spain's #1 energy source in the first quarter of 2015:

Ironically, Abengoa has produced 0% of it.

They're all a scam. The more debt problems government budgets that supports this will have in the future, the more of Abengoa and alike will bite the dust. The close correlation between the former and the latter is one obviouse evidence of inability of said enterprises to reach break-even point outside of some shady schemes.

BTW you chart looks like electricity generation not energy production, that's not a full energy balance of any given country.



mai said:
Player2 said:
mai said:

^In regards to the topics of renewables that have been discussed here:
Abengoa, the Teetering Sun King of Spain, Prepares for End Game

ROFL, bwa-ha-ha-ha. Told you :D

As much as any other parasitic sector of economy after attracting sizeable amount of fools' money (aka investors) it's nearing bankruptcy leaving nothing but debt behind. RIP, we hardly knew ya.

Abengoa is a bad example because it has been a scam, just like Bankia.

On the other hand, wind has been Spain's #1 energy source in the first quarter of 2015:

Ironically, Abengoa has produced 0% of it.

They're all a scam. The more debt problems government budgets that supports this will have in the future, the more of Abengoa and alike will bite the dust. The close correlation between the former and the latter is one obviouse evidence of inability of said enterprises to reach break-even point outside of some shady schemes.

BTW you chart looks like electricity generation not energy production, that's not a full energy balance of any given country.

You can't put all renewables in the same basket.

In 2012 the subsidies were:

photovoltaic - 400 euros per MWh.

solar thermal - 272 euros per MWh.

wind - 42 euros per MWh.

In 2014 Spain's wind subsidy went down to aprox. 20 euros per MWh.

My home uses an average of 0.2 MWh per month, so in a theoretical scenario where 100% of that energy is obtained from the wind we have to "pay" less than 4 euros per month more (and I'm being really generous here). That's a price I'm willing to pay for my independence.

 

Abengoa is a scam to siphon money from investors and taxpayers (through subsidies and contracts with the administration) to its executives. They achieved it by "hiring" ex politicians like Josep Borrell, politicians' relatives, like Miguel Sebastian's (Zapatero's energy minister) brother or Montoro's (Spain's current financial minister) partner in Montoro y Asociados or the King's cousin. That's why the photovoltaic and solar thermal subsidies are so ridiculous.

 

The chart is an energy generation. I couldn't find a pretty chart with the production numbers, but the 2014 numbers (it seems that only the yearly reports are in english, so no 2015) are in page 10 here:

http://www.ree.es/sites/default/files/downloadable/the_spanish_electricity_system_2014_0.pdf