mai said:
Projections might differ, but I don't see how you could expect it to last for decades with this trend. The fact that in most major local markets the oil production is stagnating at best or quotes from oil companies officials who expect it to decline do not raise any doubts in your prognosis? Here's another litttle chart for you, was done before that little dive in oil prices. It's not intended to represent any actual data, purely illustratory, to give an idea how the scissors of solvent demand decline and cost of production growth kills cheap oil-based prosperity at accelerated rate. In debt-driven economies the decline in demand is almost a given, so if you expect that some actual oil that's in the ground will be put to a good use, forget it, it stays in the ground -- not enough solvent demand for excavation. That's why btw companies are cutting capex (aka investment into future productive work, long-term goal) in favour of buybacks (aka supporting financial pyramid, short-term goals). Do you expect oil production to grow with cuts in capex, even though before it barely was kept afloat by increasing capex?
BTW just got updated -- peak of EU's electricity generation -- but surely that's because how home appliances and cars got energy efficient these days, not a red flag of nearest future at all :D Not sure in what world you're living in but my water boiler is almost as twice power hungry as this good old buddy from the 70s. Cars and home appliances are indeed more energy efficient in their main tasks, but they do so much more these days at cost of more energy used, and there's so much more of them that I'm not sure how electricity generation could decline without underlying economic problems causing it. It's like saying: hey, we've got more food efficient by eating less food! :D |
there are many states who have to sell oil. they cant decide that the price is to low. you cant just say no to your only income.
last time i checked the smaller oil companies were deep in the red, they dont buy back stock, the buy back are mostly done by the dieing giant bluechips.
the only place where cars didnt decreased energie consumption are the US of A, they bought bigger and bigger cars. the rest of the world, not. its clear that you dont decrease your energie consumption if you buy the biggest cars of the worst companys.
we look at a 10 year trend of decreasing energie generation(sure some years are up a bit some down a lot, but thats the normal fluctuation produced by the economy). there is just no need for more cars in europe, or driving more. and you dont need a bigger fridge at some point. and its not just efficiency, there are big trends that lead to less energie consumption. laptops are the new normal, not PCs, and most things can be done with a tablet or phone.
