500,000 to 750,000 would be my guess.

Doesn't that make it the best selling Tomb Raider ever? Granted, across two generations, but still.

Tomb Raider is an IP that seems to have adapted to today's market by being linear, scripted but with spectacular set pieces and an emphasis on graphical prowess.

With my own personal hangups aside about how it's such a shame that a pseudo puzzle-platformer with an emphasis on exploration like Tomb Raider originally was could end up like this, I think it could go one of two ways.

Either critics will continue clamping down on this kind of stuff - they already ripped The Order a new one earlier this year; or whatever it was that impressed them in the 2013 will shine through again in this game and they'll score it highly. And I do think review scores will either give this game the legs it needs to be a commercial success, or they'll let it down.

Advertising will help a lot too though. I remember the 2013 game being advertised A LOT in the UK. It was the legs that have made it impressive though (8m now, but wasn't it like 3.4m a while after launch), so I question how much it can sell in such a packed holiday season.

This is a joke, right?

Ryse managed to sell over a million copies. Rise of the Tomb Raider will sell more then Ryse.

Yeah, you're right. My bad. 13.4 million.

Of course it will.

... No.

I would love to make my first bet on this site. Any takers?

I'll say yes.

With these numbers for the previous game, it looks easy. It will do it in a few weeks at most. I wouldn't be surprised if it did close to that FW.

Lifetime sales can reach as much as 4M (wild guess, of course).