Replying to all these saying PS4 is down yoy.

 Sony sold (not shipped) 1.7m units in 56 days compared with 1.8m in 64 days last year.

That means PS4 is UP YOY as of March 1st.

Now we need to wait the next shipments to see how it shipped... they shipped 3.0m last year and well looks like they will ship over 3m this year.

Dec. 28, 2013: 4.2 million
Mar. 2, 2014: 6 million

Difference: 1.8 million (64 days) = 28.125K/day

Jan. 4, 2015: 18.5 million
Mar. 1, 2015: 20.2 million

Difference: 1.7 million (56 days) = 30.157K/day

At least from January through February, the PS4 has been outpacing last year by a smidge. It we extrapolate 2015 to 64 days, the PS4 would have sold 1.943 million units or +7.94% YOY. Not sure if it'll be down or flat when you take March into account. However, it's still pretty impressive considering the PS4 is still $399.

As you can see in my bet with Aura, i predict 1,500,000 PS4 SOLD in March... (noth shipped).

That will make a very good 21,700,000 PS4 sold.

I predict 1,000,000 to 1,200,000 PS4 in magazine, so, let me say 22,800,000 PS4 shipped.

2,900,000 PS4 shipped is my prediction. (down by 100,000, or by 3%).

What is your PS4 prediction shipped and sold?

Btw, how are we going to determine how much the PS4 sold in March? VGC numbers or waiting for Sony's next update?

Well they already have enough stock at end of December... ~1.4m on shelves... so they didn't overshipped.

They sold up to Mar 1st 1.7m... that means they shipped at least the same amount but I will bet they shipped a little more than what they sold.

For March 31st I expect they ship at least 1.2 million.

So to have at least 1.5m on shelves I expect Sony to ship 3.0-3.2m this quarter... flat of a little up yoy.

VGChartz numbers seem ok with only but important problem.

China numbers... VGChartz don't considering China numbers... of course will not be huge, but it can be +100,000 for PS4 this month.

So, we will see, if Sony will annunced the official sales, of course we will used the official numbers, if not, VGChartz, but if ioi don't update the China numbers, seem correct adding at least +80,000 to PS4, if not more.

As for now PS4 have sold according to VGChartz 760,000, and 285,000 this week.

If will sell another 285,000 unit in the next two week, unrless is undertracked because china, then PS4 will be at 1,330,000... 20,000 less than how much must sell for won the bet lol. :D

I don't think Sony have overshipped PS4 in the holiday, but according to amazon US seem that actually PS4 is undershipped... so i don't think will be costant at 1,400,000 in magazine. as i said around 1,100,000 in magazine is my prediction. But who know... you estimate seem possible thought.

We are in a down like every other years I am not worried for the XO

I specifically wrote Jan 3rd to March 21st though, compared to the same period last year, and it's down for that period yoy. I don't know why you'd change the dates; I'm looking at all the available numbers we have and comparing the same time period from last year. I suppose one could argue that the Feb launch in Japan would skew the numbers in 2014's favor, but that would be wrong due to the fact that Jan is a strong month in Japan and the 5-6 weeks with zero sales more or less make up for the bigger launch numbers, it may perhaps be a disadvantage even. Cutting the comparison short at March 1st seems kinda arbitrary unless one is vocally opposed to the idea that a market leader can be down entering its second full CY.

My whole point, regardless of what time window we choose or not; if the One being down is bad then it is certainly not good for the market leader to be down as well, or even flat, this is only the second full calendar year we're approaching and consoles normally show decent levels of growth at this point in time.

Well, I can't go to March 21st when Sony's official sold-through numbers only go up to March 1st