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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Predict Splatoon sales first week.

 

How much will sell Splatoon first week?

100,000 or less BOMBED 128 13.05%
 
150,000 - 200,000 195 19.88%
 
250,000 - 300,000 171 17.43%
 
300,000 - 350,000 133 13.56%
 
400,000 - 450,000 113 11.52%
 
500,000 - 550,000 93 9.48%
 
600,000 - 650,000 26 2.65%
 
700,000 - 750,000 14 1.43%
 
Above 750k SUCCES!!! 106 10.81%
 
Total:979
DolPhanTendo on 19 April 2015
binary solo said:
DolPhanTendo said:
binary solo said:
Majority has gone for under 300K.

For those predicting over 500K, what 100% totally brand new IP has launched at over 500K on Wii U so far? Only 20 games from the entire Wii U library have done over 500K LTD so far, according to VGC. As far as I can tell the only 100% new IP that is over 500K LTD is ZombiU.

Chances are Splatoon may struggle to get 500K LTD.


Lol at the 500k Struggle I wish only NINTENDO fans could vote on this. It's sad how some just hate for no reason. This guy will also be the first to say "well with barely anything released and no third parties of coarse it's selling, NINTENDO owners have nothing to buy". 

Why? Because Nintendo fans would vote based on hope and wishes rather than looking at empirical information? I'm basing my views on software sales on Wii U to date, according to VGC because I have nothing better to go on. Fact is, aside from ZombiU there is no brand new IP on Wii U that has sold above 500K, according to VGC. If there is a benchmark against which Splatoon should be measured it's The Wonderful 101.

I see you don't even bother answering the question I pose, rather you content yourself with throwing out unfounded accusations, and putting words on my keyboard I've never written. Where is your evidence of my irrational hate and making excuses for games selling better than I predicted? When it comes to predicting sales for Wii U games I've been pretty close to how things have turned out most of the time, because I try to be analytical about things rather than be lead by my emotions or my hopes and wishes. You think I want Splatoon to fail. I'm just trying to read WiiU's reality and predict how things will go. If how I read things isn't to your liking suddenly it's because I am hating for no reason. What are you going to say if what I've suggested comes close to being true? Are you going to write me an apology?


Well first off ZombiU did not do great because of the lack of effort Ubisoft did in making the game. Had potential to be a seller from how fun it is but you can tell it wasn't pieced together correctly and did not even try and use the systems power, see Smash or Bayonetta. Second; Bayonetta is actually selling better compared too PS3/360 versions, even though what you bring up, a small install base. Lastly; Wonderful 101 bombed because although a great game visually it's game play was average and got average reviews, with that and no marketing for it all I'm surprised it reached 300,000.

So now let's look at Splatoon the hype is real reviews so far have been great to excellent, Check. Marketing is there with the amiibos, Check. Install base is now a little larger and the WiiU is up YoY, check. Are people looking at this as they really want to play yes they are go read my thread Splatoon system seller for those deets, check.

Everything isn't black and white sometimes you have to look at what's happening with Splatoon and compare too the other games logically not it's new IP so it fail because of the other new IPs. If that s your logic on everything then you must missed hard on guessing the The Evil Within numbers or The Order numbers. 



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tbone51 on 19 April 2015

So.... binary solo and Tachikoma, can we get official predictions pls? I know Binary said 150k-200k WW but can you pick 1 #? Thankz :)



binary solo on 19 April 2015

OK OK.
USA 90K
EU 40K
Japan 40K
RoW 20K

= 190K



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

binary solo on 19 April 2015
DolPhanTendo said:
binary solo said:
DolPhanTendo said:


Lol at the 500k Struggle I wish only NINTENDO fans could vote on this. It's sad how some just hate for no reason. This guy will also be the first to say "well with barely anything released and no third parties of coarse it's selling, NINTENDO owners have nothing to buy". 

Why? Because Nintendo fans would vote based on hope and wishes rather than looking at empirical information? I'm basing my views on software sales on Wii U to date, according to VGC because I have nothing better to go on. Fact is, aside from ZombiU there is no brand new IP on Wii U that has sold above 500K, according to VGC. If there is a benchmark against which Splatoon should be measured it's The Wonderful 101.

I see you don't even bother answering the question I pose, rather you content yourself with throwing out unfounded accusations, and putting words on my keyboard I've never written. Where is your evidence of my irrational hate and making excuses for games selling better than I predicted? When it comes to predicting sales for Wii U games I've been pretty close to how things have turned out most of the time, because I try to be analytical about things rather than be lead by my emotions or my hopes and wishes. You think I want Splatoon to fail. I'm just trying to read WiiU's reality and predict how things will go. If how I read things isn't to your liking suddenly it's because I am hating for no reason. What are you going to say if what I've suggested comes close to being true? Are you going to write me an apology?


Well first off ZombiU did not do great because of the lack of effort Ubisoft did in making the game. Had potential to be a seller from how fun it is but you can tell it wasn't pieced together correctly and did not even try and use the systems power, see Smash or Bayonetta. Second; Bayonetta is actually selling better compared too PS3/360 versions, even though what you bring up, a small install base. Lastly; Wonderful 101 bombed because although a great game visually it's game play was average and got average reviews, with that and no marketing for it all I'm surprised it reached 300,000.

So now let's look at Splatoon the hype is real reviews so far have been great to excellent, Check. Marketing is there with the amiibos, Check. Install base is now a little larger and the WiiU is up YoY, check. Are people looking at this as they really want to play yes they are go read my thread Splatoon system seller for those deets, check.

Everything isn't black and white sometimes you have to look at what's happening with Splatoon and compare too the other games logically not it's new IP so it fail because of the other new IPs. If that s your logic on everything then you must missed hard on guessing the The Evil Within numbers or The Order numbers. 

Thank you. A reply that addresses the issue instead of attacking the person. Some good points there too. And some of those elements is why I'm giving Splatoon a FW of between 150 and 200K. That level of sales is a pretty good start for a new IP on Wii U.

Not sure why the Amiibos thing is being proposed as a big help for this game. Look at the Amiibos that are out now, what are the most popular ones? They are the ones that are the iconic Nintendo franchise characters. If Splatoon Amiibos are only the hitherto unknown characters who are in this game then I don't think you can count on them to especially boost popularity. You can't just throw generic amiibos at a game and think it will help sell the game. If the game is getting franchise characters as amiibos, suddenly it's not quite a wholly new IP, because it's leaning on established IP to help sales.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

Tachikoma on 19 April 2015
tbone51 said:
Tachikoma said:

I thibk you're failing to understand the difference between "because its good"  and "because it features an object that is popular in that region" 

Also you are crossing types and genres in meaningless ways to bolster a rather pointless stance. 

Ika musumes popularity is smalltime in Japan,  and the popularity it has is confined to that particular character. 

Don't make the same foolish mistake xbox fans id expecting titanfall to fly off the shelves because it had robots, something infinitely more popular in japan than squids,  and with wider appeal. 

 

First week sales for splatoon in japan will be weak.


Well are you going to make a prediction (for each)? If you feel that way at least make a prediction...

I already did, pay attention, page 7.

Also, don't assume my prediction is a form of attack on the game, i wouldnt have preordered a copy if I didnt think it looked fun, I am however not in the slightest bit convinced it will sell as strongly as people hope, if it does and im wrong then thats great for the game, and ill gladly eat my words whilst playing it, but i still dont think initial sales of the title will be that big.



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Tachikoma on 19 April 2015
Samus Aran said:
Tachikoma said:

I thibk you're failing to understand the difference between "because its good"  and "because it features an object that is popular in that region" 

Also you are crossing types and genres in meaningless ways to bolster a rather pointless stance. 

Ika musumes popularity is smalltime in Japan,  and the popularity it has is confined to that particular character. 

Don't make the same foolish mistake xbox fans id expecting titanfall to fly off the shelves because it had robots, something infinitely more popular in japan than squids,  and with wider appeal. 

 

First week sales for splatoon in japan will be weak.

That's not a good comparison, FPS aren't popular in Japan and the xbone even less so.

I'm more worried about the Nintendo fans who only buy established franchises.

But still relevent, if anything more so, since splatoon is a TPS which sells even less in Japan.

Point being people are massively overestimating japan and giving terrible reasons to back it up



Samus Aran on 19 April 2015
Tachikoma said:
Samus Aran said:

That's not a good comparison, FPS aren't popular in Japan and the xbone even less so.

I'm more worried about the Nintendo fans who only buy established franchises.

But still relevent, if anything more so, since splatoon is a TPS which sells even less in Japan.

Point being people are massively overestimating japan and giving terrible reasons to back it up

It's not your typical tps which might work in its favour.

I predict 220k WW.



Tachikoma on 19 April 2015
Samus Aran said:
Tachikoma said:

But still relevent, if anything more so, since splatoon is a TPS which sells even less in Japan.

Point being people are massively overestimating japan and giving terrible reasons to back it up

It's not your typical tps which might work in its favour.

I predict 220k WW.

a little higher than mine then, 182k ww first week was my estimate, based off of the genre and the thursday (jp) friday (eu/us) launch, doesnt leave many days that week to sell.

The particular day of the week it launches has been overlooked by most, too, since we cant cherry pick number from the following week to make an accurate "full week" all we have to go off is the duration of its launch weeks sales data which is obviously not going to be as high as a full week.



tbone51 on 19 April 2015
Tachikoma said:
tbone51 said:


Well are you going to make a prediction (for each)? If you feel that way at least make a prediction...

I already did, pay attention, page 7.

Also, don't assume my prediction is a form of attack on the game, i wouldnt have preordered a copy if I didnt think it looked fun, I am however not in the slightest bit convinced it will sell as strongly as people hope, if it does and im wrong then thats great for the game, and ill gladly eat my words whilst playing it, but i still dont think initial sales of the title will be that big.

Srry i missed it, OP didnt add it! Thats why i thought you didn't post it!

I didn't think it was 100% an atk, its your opinion. I just thought you guys weren't going to predict. It wouldn't be fair to criticise others without that persons prediction as well. I see it done before. Well like i said awhile back, im being optimistic, i know. But with this game i have a hunch its going to beat expectations..... "pls understand"



rolltide101x on 19 April 2015

120k

LTD < 600k

 

Anybody who says much higher is being really biased. I still have not met 1 person who knew about the game when I talked about it. Out of at least 100 people at college NOT 1 knew what it was. For Contrast pretty much all of them knew exactly what Bloodborne was. Most weren't interesting in buying it but they knew what it was