I think Sony will struggle to break thirty million consoles. I think economic trends indicated a dark time for gaming in general. Too much disposable income is going into petroleum. Hobbies are the first thing to feel the economic pinch. Obviously its a little early to judge, but I live on top of an oil field, and they are predicting we will be over four dollars a gallon in a couple months. I am already tightening my wallet. At this point you would be making a very hard argument for me spending four hundred dollars plus tax on a new piece of hardware.

I hope you don't take this the wrong way, but I felt that the console sales estimates this generation thus far have been very inflated for the most part, and a rotten economy only pushes the trend in reverse. I truly do not see any current generation console breaking eighty million. I do not see this current generation globally exceeding one hundred and fifty million. Unless economic pressures subdue somewhat. Right now the future isn't looking all that bright.

 A very bleak economic forecast indeed. If what you are saying is true then the video gaming market will slow down dramatically.

I wonder how the Xbox 360 price cut will impact this since it is now the least expensive console option in Europe. I would expect Nintendo (at least) and Sony (possibly) to follow suit. Especially since much of this price cut is more of a currency correction than a real reduction.

I honestly think that Microsoft can be competitive in North America (but will drop below first) and can battle in Europe (Sony's strongest market). But it is a non-entity in Japan. So having to essentially write off 15 percent of the game market means it cannot "win" (as in place first).

Furthermore, I am not sure what is still out there to sell the system. There is no Halo 3 to be published and the system has been out for three holiday seasons in its North American base (about 2-1/2 years total). So unless it can reach a mass market price ($150-$200 with a HD), there is a declining market for its great variety of games.

I also did not address the RRoD which hurts its reputation and sales potential. But that problem may be on its way to resolution.

In closing, there is too much money to be made to give away XBL. And skews tend to increase as systems age -- so one skew is doubtful.

Mike from Morgantown

@Mike

There's no Halo 3, but there's Halo Wars and a ton of other games to push the console...ooh...like GoW , which is the #2 selling game on the console, so I don't think this presents a problem for 2008.  I think there are more than enough top titles to drive the system's sales for 2008, but time will tell.

I say its to early to tell.