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Forums - Gaming Discussion - The financials behind Nintendo going 3rd party

the_dengle said:

Sure, when you look at the worst-selling Nintendo console ever it seems like going third party might be slightly more profitable for them. Now tell me Mario Kart Wii would have sold ten million more copies as a PS3/360 game.

You also forgot to factor in the increased costs of developing on two or more platforms at once.


Agree 100%.

Nintendo even gets to shave training budgets compared to competitors by making their own hardware; most other companies have to react to what the console manufacturers do. Nintendo's internal dev teams know years in advance. They probably even had input on them.

It's not just the explicit costs keeping Nintendo in the console biz.



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It's kinda funny reading these Threads, watching people debating about "Nintendo will go Third Party" and partly signed Nintendos fate. But, non of us know what's going on behind closed curtains. Nintendo made a lot of money with the Wii, the DS and yes, also the 3DS after a slow start. Everyone is bragging about the Wii U. Most likely, the Wii U won't sell any better compared to the GameCube. It's sad not because of the Sales (well kinda) but more because the Wii U is a great System. After Smash Bros. the Wii U received another Drought when it comes to Games.

But I'm kinda wondering. All these "Nintendo will/maybe go Third Party" Threads. But will Microsoft release another Console after the Xbox One? The System is dead in Japan, not relevant in Europe like the 360. Is it enough for Microsoft to be relevant just on the US Market? I know this Threads is about Nintendo, but, talking about irrelevant Themes, we should talk also about other Companies. Also: Will my beloved Vita find a successor? We simply can't answer all these questions and I have to admit, it's pretty annoying to see all these Threads because the Debate is always the same.



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Teeqoz said:
tak13 said:


http://www.zeldainformer.com/articles/a-deeper-analysis-of-nintendos-financials-why-they-cant-drop-hardware

See that and tell me your opinion!:P


I tell you the exact same thing I told Baloofarsan, they get more revenue from hardware than software, but software is still much, much more profitable.


We should ask Iwata...I think he disagrees with that!

Who gurantees that mario kart would sell on ps/xbox as much as is needed  to outdo the profits of being on it own hardware,which means not sharing the money!

Come on,only gta,gt and call of duty sell more than 10m on playstation,as for xbox,xbox360 great days passed,halo 5 might to do.10m all the other major games will be at 5-6m and this is extremely generous,it's actually double/triple the most games of original xbox(I mean the fuck,gta v is stuck at 2m and call of duty at 4m without showing signs of dramatic growth) i.e less than what mk8 will sell on wii u,why mario kart a nintendo game would sell 10-15m on both when the most games with the xbox/sony factor even not come close to that(Particularly for xbone!)...

Why go third party and share the money when you have a very good and in some cases impressive attach rate and some of your games are same or close or not that far away to games on a way bigger installbase,also risking to lose those who buys it on your hardware?Sorry but mainly xbox doesn't help your suggestions,you don't talk about xbox360!Compare the top games(At least the mario ones) of wiiu with the top of xbone games...

No from Me again...Sorry!If Mario kart 8 sell 10m on a 20m userbase,what should sell on xbox and ps to exceed the profits?Not sure,if it could as much as is  needed...

Can you gurantee me that mario kart will sell as much as is needed?



Teeqoz said:

No, potentially it's a lot more profitable for them, even if we presume their next platform is a moderate success (N64 level, 30-35 million sales). If Nintendo, in some magic way would be able to even come remotely close (70 million +) to replicating the Wii's success, then sure, going third party wouldn't benefit them.

I didn't forget to factor inthe increased costs of developping for two or more platforms at once, but I don't really know how much it would cost to port a Nintendo game from the PS4 to the XBO or vice versa.

You haven't convinced me of such. Their games sell pretty well on a console with under 10 million sales, and would presumably sell great on a console with 30 million. 30% more sales is not the amount needed for a huge increase in profits, it's the amount needed to break even on going third-party. A ten-million seller would have to sell at least 15 million to justify the shift. And they would lose the potential of hitting it big with a Wii-like (or even NES-like) success. Giving up the control they have over their ecosystem and the possibility of reasonably popular hardware is a risky endeavor.



Interesting read, I'll be tagging this.



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Ka-pi96 said:
zorg1000 said:
Ka-pi96 said:
zorg1000 said:

Yes but the point is that Nintendo is in nowhere close to that situation, there is a pretty large middle ground between Sega in 2000 and Nintendo in 2015, like I said u don't just bail out on a market that has historically been very, very profitable for u with no guarantee that it will benefit u. Nintendo posted 3 years of losses because of making very large mistakes, if they fix those mistakes yet still are posting losses than maybe u have a point but as of now there is no reason for Nintendo to go 3rd party.

I agree. They should give home consoles at least 1 more try before they go 3rd party. The Wii U isn't particularly successful, but maybe their 9th gen console can be.

I really think Nintendo will go with a unified platform so that software sales aren't tied to a small userbase. Let's say the console sells 10-20 million and the handheld 40-80 million, that's a combined 50-100 million install base to sell to instead of 2 individual smaller markets to sell to.

If they do go for something like that I really hope they still get some home console exclusives. The 3DS versions of games like Xenoblade just can't compare to the Wii version so I hope they don't have the handheld specs holding back their games. Many of their games releasing on both would be fine, but they should still go all out on a few of the big ones.

Iwata talked about how it's hard to port from Wii to 3DS and 3DS to Wii U due to the completely different architectures. Going forward, they want to adequately "absorb" the Wii U architecture, while not necessarily being the exact same, for their next devices in order to have a successful transition from generation to generation similar to how they were able to have a successful transition from Gamecube to Wii.

Based on that, I believe it will be much easier for Nintendo to port/scale titles to/from their next generation devices without having to make significant downgrades. Basically u could have a handheld that's somewhere between Xbox 360 & Wii U in terms of performance that plays games at 720p and the console version is 3 times more powerful that plays those games at 1080p with some extra graphical effects. Depending on the individual title, games could be made with the console in mind and downscaled to the handheld or vice versa.

I think a scenario like this is plausible and either device could probably cost about $249.99 at a profit at launch.



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the_dengle said:
Teeqoz said:

No, potentially it's a lot more profitable for them, even if we presume their next platform is a moderate success (N64 level, 30-35 million sales). If Nintendo, in some magic way would be able to even come remotely close (70 million +) to replicating the Wii's success, then sure, going third party wouldn't benefit them.

I didn't forget to factor inthe increased costs of developping for two or more platforms at once, but I don't really know how much it would cost to port a Nintendo game from the PS4 to the XBO or vice versa.

You haven't convinced me of such. Their games sell pretty well on a console with under 10 million sales, and would presumably sell great on a console with 30 million. 30% more sales is not the amount needed for a huge increase in profits, it's the amount needed to break even on going third-party. A ten-million seller would have to sell at least 15 million to justify the shift. And they would lose the potential of hitting it big with a Wii-like (or even NES-like) success. Giving up the control they have over their ecosystem and the possibility of reasonably popular hardware is a risky endeavor.


The attach rate off their games would scale even if the console sold 30 million. I know Mario Kart 8 has like a 50% attach rate to the Wii U, but it wouldn't have sold 15 million if the Wii U had sold 30 million. How many 10 million sellers do Nintendo have (for home console)? I can't think of any. I can think of plenty that could be if they released them on more platforms.



kristianity77 said:
The simple fact is, is that if Nintendo started to put their games on to the other two consoles, they would sell millions more copies of every game they put out. Take Mario Kart for instance, sold over 4 million on the Wii U. The current install base of over 30 million PS4s and Xbox, youd be looking at what, 5 million sales surely? Even more?


The question is, are people too polarized to buy Nintendo games on a competing console? I know this isn't like the old console wars but I don't think...well Mario Kart might be able to break the barrier you might be right about that.



rolltide101x said:
tak13 said:

Very true!And this is why a price cut can be benignant(Not miraculous) for wii u and some are not expect it to be...Plus to your comment,''that some want it as a secondary console!:P

I just think Nintendo should shoot for 250$ at launch of all of their consoles (Nintendo gamers do not care about power). It also needs to use the x86/64 platform to make it as easy as possible for 3rd party devs. 

If they did both of those things then they would sell atleast 30ish million consoles and would profit

Nintendo games + some 3rd party + cheap system = profit

 

Anybody who thinks Nintendo needs to try and hit a "home run" is wrong, all it will do is cost Nintendo more money. Nintendo can not compete with MS and Sony on an even playing field

The console you've described there is the Gamecube, which launched for $199 dropping massively in price later (i.e. cheap), had a decent amount of 3rd party support and had some of the best Nintendo games ever made. GC sold a total of about 22 million. It was also a console without any gimmicks.

The point is, no matter how cheap Nintendo makes a console, there is only a finite amount of die hard Nintendo fans in the world (topping off at about ~20 million atm) who would consider buying a console only to play 2-3 good games per year. Most people, even if the console was $200 at launch would just spend that towards one of the bigger consoles which has substantially more amount of games they want to play.

Interestingly enough, if you look at the sales of N64 to GC to Wii U (not takin the Wii into account since it targeted a very different market), you will see that there is a definite sales decline in each successive console, meaning that the number of die hard Nintendo fans willing to buy a console just to play Nintendo games is decreasing. At this rate Nintendo will have a hard time ever reaching GC like sales even with a cheap no nonsense console with good 1st party games. The only way they get massive sales is by making another Wii and targeting an audience outside of the die hard Nintendo fans with games like Wii Sports. But that kind of blue ocean strategy is very hit or miss compared to Sony/MS, who always have a massive install base of current and future fans who are willing to buy their next console when it comes out due to the large number of games on there by both 1st and 3rd parties.

Also, I don't think if Nintendo went 3rd party the die hard Nintendo fans would stop playing Nintendo games. They would just buy one of the other 2 consoles and keep playing them. So sales to a first order approximation should at least remain the same in worst case scenario. But in reality now a LOT more people would have access to these games and hence they would sell much more, especially the more well known franchises like Mario and Zelda.



 

tak13 said:
Teeqoz said:


I tell you the exact same thing I told Baloofarsan, they get more revenue from hardware than software, but software is still much, much more profitable.


We should ask Iwata...I think he disagrees with that!

Who gurantees that mario kart would sell on ps/xbox as much as is needed  to outdo the profits of being on it own hardware,which means not sharing the money!

Come on,only gta,gt and call of duty sell more than 10m on playstation,as for xbox,xbox360 great days passed,halo 5 might to do.10m all the other major games will be at 5-6m and this is extremely generous,it's actually double/triple the most games of original xbox(I mean the fuck,gta v is stuck at 2m and call of duty at 4m without showing signs of dramatic growth) i.e less than what mk8 will sell on wii u,why mario kart a nintendo game would sell 10-15m on both when the most games with the xbox/sony factor even not come close to that(Particularly for xbone!)...

Why go third party and share the money when you have a very good and in some cases impressive attach rate and some of your games are same or close or not that far away to games on a way bigger installbase,also risking to lose those who buys it on your hardware?Sorry but mainly xbox doesn't help your suggestions,you don't talk about xbox360!Compare the top games(At least the mario ones) of wiiu with the top of xbone games...

No from Me again...Sorry!If Mario kart 8 sell 10m on a 20m userbase,what should sell on xbox and ps to exceed the profits?Not sure,if it could as much as is  needed...

Can you gurantee me that mario kart will sell as much as is needed?


I'm not saying Mario Kart would sell 10 million on only Playstation or only Xbox, I'm saying it would sell 10 million + on all platforms combine. And there's plenty of franchises that can pull of that (or come close to it), and those franchises aren't as big as Mario Kart.