Yes, if XBX were to sell more than 2m copies it'll sell more than the best selling Paper Mario on a home console.

Super Paper Mario doesn't count.

Captain Toad's done around 0.6 million in a matter of months, and that's a small game, so i don't think its too far-fetched.

zelda u - 1,000,000
xenoblade x - 650,000
starfox u - 300,000
splatoon - 250,000
yoshi's world - 450,000
mario maker - 600,000
mario party - 650,000
kirby - 350,000

Zelda - 2.2m
XCX - 900k
Splatoon - 900k-1m
Yoshi - Depends on when it releases. I think 800k is plausible. If it gets rave reviews, 900k.
Kirby - 900k-1m
Devil's Third - Depends on when it releases + if it's any good. If it is good, I can see 450-500k.
Star Fox - maybe 700-800k. I'm assuming it will release in either September or October.
MP10 - 1.2m
Mario Maker - 1.1m

I'm not very good at this either, for the record.

I hear you. I don't think i'm going to do these kinds of threads until i become more knowledgeable about sales and stuff :P

Zelda over 3m
Xenoblade under 1 million
Splatoon and starfox under 1 million too.

Mario Kart and Smash Bros in 2015 will actually outsell a lot of those imo.

Zelda 3m
Xenoblade 650k
Devils Third 400k
Yoshi 550k
Mario Party 1.2m
Splatoon 800k
Kirby 500k
Star Fox 650k
Mario Maker 1m

While I think XCX is guaranteed to be over a million lifetime with a chance for multimil, I will eat my hat if it hits 2mil within 2015.

You need to keep in mind that you're predicting this year's sales rather than lifetime sales. Xenoblade getting over 1 million lifetime is not guaranteed, let alone 2 million.

Looks like its a smaller game than i thought, if thats the case, but i don't think it isn't reasonable for it to get over 1 mil, with the Japan bundle and the fact quite a lot of people are hyped for it.