Sony ’s strong start in this era of the video game console wars is going to sustain them for a long, long time, according to a new report from Strategy Analytics. By their count, the PS4 is set to continue outselling the Xbox One by about 40% through 2019, and persist in demolishing the Wii U, despite a predicted modest comeback for Nintendo ’s console.
In the end, their data (via GamesIndustry) suggests that given the PS4’s booming start, it should chart closer to how the PS2 rose to power, rather than the lackluster debut for the once-overpriced PS3. Both systems did well eventually, but the PS2 has 155 million lifetime global sales, while the PS3 has 82 million to date. The report predicts Sony will hit the latter mark more quickly than the PS3 did, with 80 million console sales by 2019, after the expected discounts, promotions and a beefed-up library that will drive more sales in time.
This is in contrast to the Xbox One, which Strategy Analytics predicts will see 57 million sales by the same point in time, unable to bridge the gap in the next five years (or more than likely, ever), and having the sales disparity remain at about the same proportion. Right now 18.5 million PS4s have been sold, while some estimates put Xbox One sales at around 10-12 million. For comparison, the original Xbox ended its run with only 24 million sales, while the Xbox 360 went on to more or less tie the PS3 with 83 million sales.
And then there’s the Wii U, which the report says will see a modest surge in sales on the back of quality software for the console. And yet, sales have been so anemic to date, that rise isn’t nearly enough to pull it even close to either of the other two. By 2019, the report predicts a Gamecube-level 20 million sales, 20% of the original Wii’s 100 million global sales.
Five years is more or less most of the entire console generation, at least if the past is any indication as to how long this one might last. The gap between the Wii and Wii U was six years, PS3 to PS4 was seven years, 360 to One was eight. So it stands to reason that by year five, we will probably be seeing hints at the next generation of consoles, if one does exist, given how much the market could change by then. Microsoft MSFT +0.83% and Sony’s futures are hard to predict, but from what we know about Nintendo, I think we’re likely going to see another console announced within two to three years. I’m not as optimistic about a sales resurgence for the Wii U, as the two biggest games of any Nintendo generation, Mario Kart and Smash Bros, have already been released. Zelda is beloved yes, but more niche than those other two.
Strategy Analytics concludes their report with a statement about the industry as a whole:
“Despite reports to the contrary, the game console market is not dead,” said Strategy Analytics senior analyst Eric Smith. “Core gamers have moved faster to this current generation than in any previous generation. The main difference in this generation is that casual gamers who bought a Wii are remaining largely on the side lines as free-to-play casual games and midcore games on tablets and smartphones have captured this segment of consumers.”
That’s an interesting point about ultra-casual gamers having transitioned completely to phone and tablet games instead of buying a new console after the Wii. I always knew they didn’t come back after shelling out a few hundred dollars for a system they likely played for three weeks and then never touched again, but I never considered where they went. Yet the oms and grandpas that enjoyed Wii Bowling probably feel right at home playing Candy Crush.
Image: Strategy Analytics
I’m not sure where these “reports to the contrary” are about the video game console market being dead. If anything, we hear more about PC gaming dying (also not true), but I think only a few, really out of touch industry folk have suggested that something as disparate and (usually) low quality as the mobile scene has somehow sapped players away from the console space.
Do these numbers seem reasonable? I’d say so, but that means not great news for Microsoft, and downright doom and gloom for Nintendo. Microsoft is going to be eternally frustrated if they’re forever chasing after Sony despite the consoles really not being all that different from one another, with the gap existing mostly thanks to the botched launch alone. And Nintendo will surely be disappointed with a console that’s performing on the level of 2001’s Gamecube, given how much the market as a whole has expanded since then, and how big of a hit their last console was.
And yet, the biggest question in all this is probably Sony. They’re killing their console competition now, and this report suggests that will carry on well into the future. But Sony as a whole has been struggling as of late, with the gaming division one of its few bright spots. It’s hard to say what Sony might look like five years from now, and if even a huge-selling console is enough to stabilize the company.
