The Order 1886-

There really is not a good comparison to make with this game. It is unique. Gears seems the most obvious due to it being a cinematic TPS, but gears is based on a more popular setting... the closest games I can think of in setting to The Order are castlevania games, but they are a different genre completely. So there is no way to tell if the Victorian setting will resignate with most gamers. The game could find itself in a situation where it has no specific audience or it could catch on because people are looking for something different, than you know, games based on Modern or Near Future military combat.

The pre-orders look strong, and even with Mediocre reviews (low 70s meta) it should cruise past 1 million. So my predictions are based mostly off intuition rather than hard data. Now, let me say this up front. I dont live or die by review score, but they are really the only metric we have. I personally will play any game if a few of my friends tell me it is fun (Dying Light is a very recent example, I usually ignore 73 meta games but had several people recommend it so I went with it and was VERY glad I did).

With a 67-72 Meta I see it selling in the vicinity of 1.2 mil. give or take 200k. It has enough hype it should be able to get sales upfront, but it would have no legs due to word of mouth and their being plenty of copies available on the secondary markets. It will be 29.99 by the summer and will crawl past a million then. Low chance of sequel.

If it pulls a 73-79 meta (which to me means a solid game) it should be able to crack 2 million. It sales would look similar to Infamous: SS. It does not have the established IP recognition of Infamous, but it get the advantage of launching on 3X the userbase. It too will take a lower price point to crack to mil (say 39.99 during holidays 15). I cap it at 2.5 mil with a 73-79. I see this as the most likely scenario as reviews have been harsh this gen and it seems many want to score The Order low. Sequel is possible.

A 80-86 Meta is what it will take to reach 3 mil+. I will have smaller drops for the 1st month and find a respecable baseline. It will be a revelant game during Holidays 15 and most likely will be full priced with retailer doing promotions so you will be able to find it for 39.99 or so. Also at this point it is a major system seller. Even if people dont buy a PS4 for The Order it becomes one of those games that adds to the PS4 portfolio and makes it more desirable. A sequel would be guarenteed. If feel this scenario is possible most of the feedback from people who have played it is very positve, but the lack of multiplayer will make the game start at an 8.5 for most reviewers and they will subtract from there.

If by a snowballs chance in hell it gets a 87+ its sales will look like somewhere between God of War and Uncharted 1 (so 4-7 mil lifetime). A sequel will be expedited, and we will have The Order XXXX ready by holidays 17. I dont see it getting this sort of score, even Dragon Age: Inquistion only has like an 89 and its one of the better games I have played in a while.

I think (hope) it will get an 85+ and will do 3 million or more. This game's hype skyrocketed over the last week by the way. It's got nothing but good reviews by the users who have played it early, so that's a good sign.

I think you're putting way too much emphasis on metascore affecting sales.

Imho it sells 2-3 million regardless of score. It's been awhile since the PS4 has had a big exclusive at retail and the hype/marketing push is huge for this one. I was setting some stuff up in a Walmart on Tuesday and a Sony rep was actually there almost training the employees on what The Order was and how they should sell it to people. He looked a lot like Jet Tequila or whatever from Cutthroat Kitchen. But I have never seen a Sony rep push something like that. Was almost like watching a Nintendo rep in action.

Just goes to show, Sony is really pushing this one. Maybe they see it as a series no matter how the first one goes. The first Killzone didn't fare too well but it got sequels.

part of me thinks that "early copies" sneaking out were intentional. And if it was intentional that is a very good sign. No better way to build hype than to get some word of mouth from people who have actually played it. I know my hype meter has been raised quite a bit by people's impressions of the game.

which is why I have it selling between 2-3 million unless it get a very bad score or a very good score. A very bad score means the game is probably bad and word of mouth will also follow. A very good score (80+) and the game becomes a must have and has much better potential than 3 mil.

750k first week, with it ending up around 3.5 million is my pick. I agree it'll get a bit of a boost as the first PS4 exclusive in a while regardless of the review scores, but if the review scores are good (I'm not optimistic) then word of mouth may carry it further, not unlike what happened to TLOU (but not to the same scale).

Having no multiplayer will hurt sales slightly, especially if review scores aren't great because people will hold off to get it second hand.

True. And I had not thought about this, but TLOU has really increased the popularity of cinematic games. If it gets compared to TLOU in any way that should give it a huge boost.

The negative coverage this game has received will have an impact on the sales.

yes. none of the Xbox fanboys will buy it now.

The TLOU got plenty of "hate" prior to release. Remember it followed Uncharted 3 which was a let down for alot of people, people were saying its another Zombie game, etc. Fact is the game will be top 20 on Amazon for the month BEFORE it releases.

The actually quality of the game, or lack there of will decide its sales. Look at Watchdogs, that game was a hate fest up til launch. Still sold 10 million. Only a very small portion of the consumer base actually looks at the meta score and even less get caught up in fanboy wars on gaming forums.

Advertising and word of mouth are king.

User was moderated for this post - Conegamer 

I think the game's sales will be fairly resistant to review scores as long as its between 60 and 85, and will go on to sell ~3 million copies.

The PS4 hasn't had a good exclusive in a while, the marketing spend is there.

I think a relevant comparison would be Bioshock - in that they are both quirky new IP shooters releasing a similar distance into a generation. Of course Bioshock was outstanding and spawned a brilliant franchise. We'll have to wait and see what The Order has to offer.