why not it was designed to go down in price quickly.  It's made with parts that will allow them to go below $200.

i believe to this date just there 8GBgddr5 and apu alone cost around $200

even if it is which i agree there in a better situation than ps3 i believe sony would want the profits than the marketshare

Gaming is more popular now that it was in 1999-2000, to say otherwise is foolish. What is not as popular know as it was back then is dedicated gaming hardware.

In all honesty I don't expect the PS4 to get near PS2 levels, I doubt it'll have the same longevity with so many new smart devices getting release so often, without being the cheapest DVD player for years, without it being possible to sell for less than 150$, without piracy, without Japan and without an insane library of super cheap games and having little competition worldwide.

China is a wildcard, fine, but I doubt PS4 will do all that, or mainly I doubt the Chinese goverment will let it do all that.

I expect 100m, but not much more, I'd loved to be proved wrong.

That's not the case at all, it may be that sales have topped off at this point, but the 90s and early 2000s were certainly not the peak.  Last gen already has over 270 million sold, gen before that was under 210 million (219 with DC), before that 145 million, before that under 100 million, before that 70 million(ish).  These numbers aren't perfect but you see the pattern.  I do doubt we will pass 270 million this time around.  

Also are you really gonna say that HW failure is a major factor when PS1 and PS2 had all kinds of hardware failure.  

That's easy because they would have sold pretty much the same since they wouldn't be able to meet demand, after all despite how much it has improved over the years, manufacturing still have it's limits, you need to plan from 6 months to a year in advance, research which companies are available and with how much capacity, if they're up to the task and required quality, negotiate the terms, etc. So a price cut would have significantly reduced their profits while their userbase would have been 0.5-1M more at best.

Also Sony will lower the price of the PS4 when it works for them, not as reaction to what MS is doing. When they think they'll get more profits selling to a higher number of consumers by selling at lower price than selling to less consumers at higher price, they'll lower the price. Remember that the meat of the console business is actually selling games, services and peripherals to your userbase, not actually in selling consoles:

PS4 ($300 vs $400)

First let's assume the PS4 BOM is $350.

Then the PS3 as far as I know had a 8.5 Attach Rate a couple years ago, it could be more, but let's say the PS4 will have a 6.0 Attach Rate and assume Sony profits $30 per game. Now with PS+ let's say it sells at $40 on average, nets Sony $20 on average profits, and the average user subs for 5 years. Finally let's add $100 more on profits from accessories (controllers, headsets, cameras, etc).


$400 Price Point
$400 * 15M (Console Revenue) = $6B
$6B - $350 * 15M (Console BOM) = $750M

Profit ($400 Price Point)
$750M (Console) + $180 * 15M (Games) + $100 * 15M (PS+) + $100 * 15M (Accessories)
$750M + $2.7B + $1.5B + $1.5B = $6.45B


$300 Price Point
$300 * 20M (Console Revenue) = $6B
$6B - $350 * 20M (Console BOM) = -$1B

Profit ($300 Price Point)
-$1B (Console) + $180 * 20M (Games) + $100 * 20M (PS+) + $100 * 20M (Accessories)
-$1B + $3.6B + $2B + $2B = $6.6B

So in conclusion if the sales improve from 15M at $400 to 20M at $300 with the BOM at $350, the price reduction results in better profits. Obviously the lower the BOM the lower the sales increase needed to bring better profits with a pricedrop.

See? But they need to be able to manufacture over 20M in a year to begin with.

What makes you sure they will hold 10 years?

Seeing as how it has started to track behind PS2 already, its clear it will not come anywhere near those amazing levels. It will not have a year at 20mn+ levels and it will drop of all faster than Gen 6 or 7. I've said it before: 80-90mn is possible.

I'm anticipating 90-100m by the end of the gen. I don't think it will have the PS2's advantages or legs.

The way I see it the PS4 and XBO should be that disruptive force. Sony and Microsoft can not possibly be blind enough to not see what smartphones and owning there own marketplace has done for Apple and Google. Smartphones got where they are because they are a device everyone needs now days, not just because they are a phone, but due to having atleast some app that will sway the majority of consumers. Not to mention they are almost the simplist devices to use. 

Microsoft and Sony have the boxes, they have the market places, and all they have to do is expand, expand, expand. Just like google, and apple, let the garage devs build all of these little apps. Let them build up a very useful tool kit that keeps people using their device every waking hour. Take the shared profits from that to fund bigger internal projects that will draw even more consumers. 

I think Sony has already put themselves in position to make a huge move in the industry. PSN is the vehical that can lead them to Apple and Googler like success, thanks in a huge part to PlayStation Vue. There are over 200M cable boxes in the US, and they are estimating over 320M worldwide buy this year (2015). With PlayStation Vue, and PSN Sony can put PS4 right into the winning model that built cable companies, and the smart phone buisness. Contracts and Bundles. 

If Sony can turn PSN into a machine that builds services and PlayStations, they can bust this industry wide open. Basic plans with PS Vue only could get people walking out the door with an up front cost of $199.99 for a two year contract in a matter of months. Expanded Plans could see PS Vue, PS Music, PS Now, and PS+ for two years, and walk out with a with a PS4 for zero down. Then you can have deals for multiple PS4's, a PS4 and 3 PSTV units, all kinds of ways to give people service throught the whole house. 

That is major maket disruption. That changes the game. And, that is how the industry continues to grow, and Sony catapults itself back into the battle with Apple, Google, Micosoft, and Samsung.

On another note. The Above + PlayStation Phone is how they attack the mobile industry, and bring mobile gaming back to life.

What makes you think it won't?

Console
Release date -> Discontinued

PS1 (11 years & 4 months)
December 1994 -> March 2006

PS2 (12 years & 10 months)
March 2000 -> December 2012

PS3 (8 years & 4 months so far)
November 2006 -> TBA

I'm not saying things can't change, but it won't change because one thinks, feels, perceives it will. You need evidence to suggest that things will go the way you think, otherwise it's pointless discussion, because opinions are like assholes, everyone has one. So for having a worthwhile discussion you need something to support it other that your personal feelings/thoughts about a situation.

Do you have evidence of this, because I'm pretty sure the PS4 is still tracking above the PS2, unless you're referring to NPD(US), but then that may not be a good extrapolation because the PS4 competition in the US is a lot more than the PS2 had at this point in time (XBOX and GameCube with only like for 4-5 months in the market at this point in time while the PS2 with over 1 year and 4 months in the US), while on the other hand the PS4 is tracking above the PS2 everywhere else (except Japan).