to add to the above question:

the console's bestselling year so far coincided with a model refresh (2012: 3ds xl, 14m). the only year that came close was 2013 which most everyone can agree was an extraordinarily good year for 3ds software (13.92m).

so, to recap:

2011: 12.56m

2012: 14m

2013: 13.92m

2014: 9.97m

why would it absolutely crash now to 7m or less, when it's getting its first refresh since 2012? why wouldn't that at least propel it past its 2014 figures, its worst on record?

I think it'll be up YoY for sure. The real question is, by how much?

I hope the 3ds gets some surprise localizations and announcements. Right now 2015 isn't looking good for 3ds, so far to me.

You mathed wrong. 67% of 10 million (which is roughly what 3DS sold) is 6.7 million if it falls to 7 or 8 million, it's a 20%-30% decline.

usually those same people think it's going to crash completely, so i just assumed. the yoy decline from 2013 to 2014 was 29%. i don't think we're going to see a decline like that again until the system's last year before the successor is released, which will probably be not 2016 but 2017 (judging by nintendo's past). then i can see it selling 5-7m per year, but at the height of its first-party support? no way.

i also added above:

2011: 12.56m

2012: 14m

2013: 13.92m

2014: 9.97m

the only yoy increase was when the 3ds xl was released (2012 vs. 2011). why would it absolutely crash now to 7m or less, when it's getting its first refresh since 2012? why wouldn't that at least propel it past its 2014 figures, its worst on record, especially as it seems to be getting great support from nintendo (certainly better than 2014 and about even with 2012, if not on par with 2013).