so there's been some hay made lately on here about whether the 3ds is on a "downward spiral" (to quote one user) or whether 2014 sales were down significantly because the software output did not match 2013, where you had a big hit every other month (several multi-million sellers including animal crossing: new leaf [7m+], luigi's mansion: dark moon [4m+], mario and luigi: dream team [2m+], fire emblem: awakening [~1.5m, series best], pokemon x/y, [14m+], a link between worlds [~2.5m], etc.).

in 2014, only smash bros. and pokémon approached the sales of any of those games. kirby and bravely default did respectably, as did yoshi and professor layton, but the big 3ds hits were all in japan (yokai watch, monster hunter 4). considering the drop in software output, i'm actually surprised sales didn't drop more than they did, but smash bros. and pokémon are huge franchises, i guess, and did a good job of picking up the slack, especially during the holidays.

now we have a sense of what's coming in the first half of this year, with a bunch of release dates from nintendo and third parties, i thought i'd pose the question: will new 3ds upgrades increase 3ds sales vs. 2014? or is it in a "downward spiral"? or will it do the same as 2014? here are the releases for the first half of this year, with some speculative titles for the second (i've bolded existing/potential million sellers):

first half of 2015 (confirmed): majora's mask 3d (feb. 13), ace combat+ (feb. 13), monster hunter 4 (feb. 13), story of seasons [harvest moon] (march 10), code name s.t.e.a.m. (march 13), fossil fighters frontier (march 20), xenoblade chronicles 3d (april 2), etrian mystery dungeon (april 7), devil survivor 2 (may 5), puzzle and dragons z/puzzle and dragons x super mario (may), hatsune miku project mirai dx (may 26)

second half of 2015 (speculative): bravely second, theatrhythm dragon warrior, new metroid, final fantasy explorers, the great ace attorney, new fire emblem, rodea (xseed?), enhanced remake of pokemon x/y, rhythm heaven 3ds (december title like ultimate nes remix), misc. unannounced nintendo titles (tba at e3)

i think it will sell less than 2014 in japan, but more in the rest of world. the line up is better in west.
Last year, it acheive 5 2 millons sellers in less than 6 months in japan, something never seen before. Very unlikely to happen. And even with this and N3DS, it sold poorly compared to 2013. So, i think that in japan it should drop more.
But some of the titles of 2014's japan are reaching west, and lots of new software. Also, N3DS and amiibo, some will upgrade.
But i think it wont pass 10M.

I would so love Bravely Second + Fire Emblem this year. Would be awesome!

The showdown between these two would end worlds

True dat! I have been looking at some info for bravely second as they come out and the game looks quite good with all the new classes and stuff! And nothing needs to be said about FE after that trailer of course. Those two would truly make this already zomfg year even better

and metroid of course... 2d metroid, to be precise. i won't take anything else.

what is next level games even doing these days??

Dragon Quest games would be cool and would definitely boost sales if marketed correctly, especially with VII being 100+ hours of main story gameplay. I think that with it's current lineup, not more than 10M. Then again, Nintendo is bound to be working on a new 3DS wonder game that they'll announce at E3.

Hmm, I thought metroid for the 3ds was canceled?

yeah, their metroid for 3ds is definitely canceled. trying to keep hope alive...

but there's bound to be some metroid sometime soon (2016 probably). anyway, nintendo must have a lot of 3ds stuff to reveal at e3, because the wii u 2015 slate has already been set basically (xenoblade, star fox, zelda). i hope metroid is among those titles.

a 2d metroid has a much faster development cycle than a prime-style one, right? right??

It'll be down for sure as we have no games confirmed for the second half, and with them having revealed Majora's Mask and Fire Emblem recently, the latter of which likely wont make it worldwide this year, I find it hard to believe they still have a bunch of games to announce that'll release before the year ends.