That's different...this is a new generation that hasn't been around long at all. There are still a lot of people that haven't moved to the next generation yet. A lot of PS2 users are still undecided. This is the point I'm making...in my case, what he said in that quote is true. All of my friends that stayed behind with the PS2 want a PS3 over the 360 and Wii...this is just in my case though. I'd have to go around and meet a lot of other people that stayed with the PS2 to confirm this.

You make a good point, but I think there is another factor involved that may cause a different outcome than you expect--and that Sony is claiming will occur.  Cost.  The PS2 entered the market at a much lower price point than either the 360 or the PS3.  Many of those who are PS2 holdouts (and let's face it, a huge segment of the population in most  industrialized nations owns a PS2) are waiting until they can get a console for a lot less than the current generation costs.  In my mind this means Sony had better put decent BC BACK into their low-end machine before they get below the $200 critical mass point... otherwise Wii or 360 might eat their lunch if they get there first.

i very much doubt that many ps2 owners will go with the ps3. because ps2 owners who haven't yet bought a next gen system are mostly casuals. therefore they won't be buying a 300,400, 500 dollar system. the casuals that play really simple games will all go to the wii and so a lot of those ps2 owners will probably get a wii when it drops down to like 150 bucks which is probably what they bought the ps2 for.

then theres the casuals who mostly just got ps2 for gta and a couple other games. they'll probably mostly go with a 360 becuase it also has gta and is cheaper. these kind of people don't have much brand loyalty cuz they aren't gamers. they are casuals. if the 360 stays at least 50 bucks cheaper than the 40gb ps3 then most of these people will probably go to 360. i would guess that at least 50% of these undecided ps2 owners will go to wii while a little over half of the rest will go to the 360.

people aren't gonna suddenly be interested in the ps3 because sony now decided that they think the ps3 will sell much better. cuz they already thought it was gonna blow the other systems away when it launched. it ain't gonna happen. it will continue to gain some momentum and eventually start having decent sales. but it won't ever be popular.

Brandname didn't save the N64. It saved it from the pitiful sales of the GameCube, and Nintendo fans saved the GameCube from not selling anything. The same basic idea will happen to the PS3. It will sell well. Most likely 50 million. Because of brand. If Sony doesn't get their act together, PS4 won't sell as well as that though.

And I don't see what's different about it. The whole idea of business is to come in and sweep away customers. Brandname will effect some people, which is why you try to show why you are better than them. But brandname a lone won't save a system, since most gamers care about games, price, and quality of hardware.

 The 80GB isn't dead. That one still has BC. And you're right about the price, most of my friends still with PS2s don't have the money for a 360 or PS3. But they never had their PS2s at first either. These kind of people wait until later on to get the next-gen consoles. Whether they can afford it or not though, I do know they all(out of my friends...I'm not saying all people left behind with the PS2, that would be stupid) want the PS3 over the Wii and 360. 

 @ilovetogame

There weren't really that many casual games on the PS2. I doubt most people got a PS2 just for GTA. Most if not all my friends that are still left behind with the PS2 are hardcore gamers as well. I don't see your casual gamer showing up in my friends. The casual gamers you are talking about would have probably already moved to the Wii already.

And all my PS2 friends didn't all of a sudden go "Oh!" because of this PR. They've been paying attention to games. Like I said, they're all hardcore gamers...not any casuals in my PS2 friends. Most of them aren't really into GTA either...though there are a couple, but it's not the main reason why they got a PS2.

Your argument with this doesn't seem to really hold up...the Pro 360 is only $50 cheaper than the 40GB PS3 and the Elite is only $50 cheaper than the 80GB. Price isn't much of a factor when they're that close together...and I know a lot of people like to avoid the arcade, so I don't know if that one really counts...though with people that don't really have the money, it probably does. Crumas argument I like better as it brings up the BC...my PS2 friends stayed behind because...well, they were undecided and love PS2 games. If they don't have decent BC...they definitely will be turned off by the 40GB.

 The PS3 won't ever be popular? It has pretty much doubled it sales rate from last year. Here's a thread that proves that: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=0&id=19099

 The PS3 has sold like 10.5 million and gaining momentum fast...it's catching up on the 360 fast. The PS3 is getting a lot of good exclusives this year as well. The PS3 isn't "unpopular", maybe not the most popular, but it is starting to become popular. Usually when anybody talks about the PS3 they get chewed out from the Wii and 360 fans which represents a majority of people with next-gen systems at my school. Lately though, I've heard people bring it up...and surprisingly people are becoming more accepting of it. 

 One of my friends that used to bad mouth the PS3 all the time and got a 360 says he's planning on getting a PS3 next as well...it's not the console that gets bashed because "17 h45 n0 g4m35" anymore. It's starting to become more popular.

Whoa, not a lot of casuals? I pulled this from one of my threads:

"I added up the best selling game for each of the best selling series on the PS2. Those games are: GTA:SA, GT3, FFX, MGS2, KH, DQVIII. Add up their sales and you get: 53.83 million units sold. That’s not even 50% of the userbase, and that’s only if every person who bought one of those games didn’t buy any of the other games. I’d imagine that the number of people total who bought any combination of those games to be around 25-35 million. Which is about what I have for the number of hardcore users, depending on which numbers you use. And of course, GTA:SA has been known as a heavy casual game, and I’ll show you why later."

And also look at the PS2 million sellers. Games like Scooby Doo: 100 Frights, and two SpongeBob games are in the million sellers. There's probably more if you'd bother to look (which I haven't).

Visit this thread to understand more about casuals. Just because a lot of games aren't "casual" doesn't mean a lot of the users aren't casual.

I just wanted to point that out. Continue on with the debate.

Edit: I just noticed that you said "casual games" so my point is... not completely right.

Edit 2: This also comes from that thread.

"Also, according to Sony’s financial records, total shipments of PS2 titles through March 2007 sits at around 1240 million units, meaning those 6 games that I mentioned only make up 4-6% of the entire game library of PS2 games when it comes to shipped units. Even when you combine all the different games from each of those series, you only get about 150 million units, which might be a bit high, but still only 12-15% of the total software sales. Meaning that much lesser known games, and games that would attract the casuals, such as SpongeBob: Battle (which sold 1.5 million units on the PS2), are abundant on the PS2 (and consoles in general). Even with lower sales of the casual games, they make up for in the sheer number of those types of games."

So... there ya go. Lots of casual, or not so well known games of which to speak. And yes, sports games are casual games. 

Just because major games don't make up for the total amount of systems sold doesn't mean they're the only games. That doesn't automatically mean that every other game besides those are casual either. I'm not doubting that there were people that played casual games, I'm just saying that a lot are hardcore gamers as well. I still need to get better statistics by meeting some other PS2 people outside my area. My biggest point there is that the casual gamers on the PS2 mostly probably moved as a mass to the Wii by now. Those still with PS2s now are probably a good chunk of hardcore gamers waiting for the right move...as well as some casuals.

Oh, and just because a casual game sold a lot doesn't mean only casual gamers bought the games. I for one watched Scooby Doo all the time when I was a little kid...and I don't really consider myself a casual gamer...but I still bought the Scooby Doo game and found it fun. 

The part I deleted I agree with. No doubt there are a lot of games, but casual and hardcore. There's no use fighting over it because deciding who is hardcare or what is hardcore is pointless. My definition is that a player is hardcore... not a game. You can play Scooby Doo in a hardcore sense. Playing it 10 hours a day, play it through 5 times, collect all the stuff in it. That makes YOU hardcore, and not the game. But let's not talk about that, because it's a never ending pointless discussion.

What I have a problem with is the first part after what I deleted. There are a lot of hardcore gamers... there's just not as many as you think. If you consider a lot, maybe, 30 million (on the PS2 only). Then there's a lot. But in the scheme of things? 30 out of 120 million isn't the majority, and 55 million out of 160 (all consoles combined) is still only 1/3 the total gaming population. I've done some rough estimates, and I firmly believe that the most hardcore users, the ones that buy 10 games a year, and practically devote their lives to games, only make up 20-25 million of the PS2 users. Then there's another 30-35 million that buy 5 games a year, play most days a few hours. Then there's another 100-110 million that only buy one or two games a year, one of which is Madden or a sports game of some sort, play a few times a week.

The fist group (the hardcore of hardcore) will mostly go to the PS3/360, but will eventually pick up the other systems (either a PS3 or 360, depending on the first console, and Wii) simply because they play EVERY GAME imaginable. The second group (hardcore) will be split between Wii/PS3/360. The games will decide. Like shooters? 360. Like JRPGs? PS3. Don't like those? Wii. They may also pick up a second console, but almost all with have a combination of a HD console and a Wii. And the last group will almost exclusively be the Wii's territory. Yes, some will get a 360, PS3, but not many. And most of those will get one for GTA4. Since only 15 million bought GTA:SA, there's only (at most) 15 million to get, split it between PS3 and 360, and the effect on those consoles won't be much.

And then there's the new comings, the non-casual. We won't get into those because there's just not enough data to know how big the market is.

So, in recap, the market size that the Wii caters to is the 90 million or so casuals, maybe 10 million (about 1/3rd) of the semi-hardcore, and then maybe 5 million of the hardcore (not including those who buy it as a second console), for a total market of 105 million users (not to mention noncasuals). Whereas the PS3/360 have a total market of 20 million hardcore, 25 million semi-hardcore, and maybe 20 million casual, for a total market size of 65 million. And they have to fight over it.

And yeah.. you can't really use your friends or any video game forum (or any forum for that matter) because it will show an extreme bias towards hardcore type games. 

I also strongly suggest you read that thread I linked to in my one post. It's long, but it's interesting. Some of the responses to it were very interesting as well.

to lazy to read pr, buy they right.

PS3 will dominate.