Thank you Hedra42. I appreciate the compliments. I like to be thorough in my arguments to bring understanding & open up discussion.
To challenge you to see a point of view you may not have previously considered.
You make some reasonable counter-arguments here so my clarify my points further.

You DEFINITELY understand the Second System advantage I highlighted. I'm glad you recognize it.
So many others in this thread won't even consider the possibility.

It's true that your points about "can't afford another console" "Mario & Link don't appeal to all gamers" "confused marketing" "lack of advertising" & such can factor in on that Second System advantage.
But let's consider this. What if Nintendo only pulls 50% of the audience from those bases instead of ALL at 100%?

Right now XOne stands at almost 11 million.
Right now PS4 stands at over 18 million.
Right now Wii U stands at almost 9 million.

Intel says there are 711 million PC gamers in the world but that can cover anyone from high-end PC rig-builders to those playing browser games on Facebook & Nickelodeon.
Tom's Hardware specifies this saying that there are 54 million Enthusiast and Performance PC gamers in the world in 2012.
IGN reports Valve's statement that there are 75 million registered Steam users.

We'll  factor a figure for the PC gamers later since this is a hard-to-pin-down number.
All PC owners are not necessarily PC gamers since the PC is not primarily a gaming device.

Half of XOne's 11 million is 5.5 million.
Half of PS4's 18 million is 9 million.
Together that is 14.5 million.

14.5 million + 9 million = 23.5 million for Wii U.

Using that 711 million number from Intel would be silly so let's use that 54 million number from Tom's Hardware for PCs.
Half of 54 million is 27 million.

23.5 million + 27 million = 50.5 million for Wii U.

Or we can substitute that number for Valve's reported 75 million from Steam.
Half of 75 million is 37.5 million.

23.5 million + 37.5 million = 61 million for Wii U.

But let's say those negative factors you mentioned draw that percentage downward.
Let's say Wii U can only pull 25% from the other platforms.

One-quarter of XOne's 11 million is 2.75 million.
One-quarter of PS4's 18 million is 4.5 million.
One-quarter of Tom's Hardware's 54 million PC estimate is 13.5 million.
- OR -
One-quarter of Valve's 75 million Steam PC contingent is 18.75 million.

2.75 million + 4.5 million + 13.5 million + 9 million = 29.75 million for Wii U.
- OR -
2.75 million + 4.5 million + 18.75 million + 9 million = 35 million for Wii U.

Let's excise the PC portion from the 25% figures right quick.
2.75 million + 4.5 million + 9 million = 16.25 million for Wii U.

A number only a stone's throw away from PS4's 18 million.

Keep in mind we still haven't added new 'Wii U ONLY' owners at all.
We're only counting 3 streams.

Also the negative factors you mentioned are not permanent. They are fixable & adjustable.
Microsoft's short-term fix of unbundling Kinect this past May allowed it to go from the 'PS4 outsells XOne & Wii U COMBINED' category to consistently outselling PS4 in America.
From 0 to 100 in a matter of mere MONTHS. A surge that happened nearly OVERNIGHT.

The positive factors can & will outweigh the negative factors the longer this generation goes on.
And if you think a console can't rally back in the middle of a generation all you have to do is look at last generation's PS3 & 360.
PS3 DOUBLED its monthly sales in 2009 after the original PS3 died & was reborn & rebranded as PS3 Slim with Move.
360 DOUBLED its monthly sales in 2010 after they put a woman's waist on the console getting rid of the red rings as XBox 360 S with Kinect.
Even the SNES rallied mid-generation especially with games like Donkey Kong Country.

You see the mathematics of the situation.
Nintendo will create the appeal through the power of their MUST-HAVE games.
The games will draw the people from other platforms to their Wii U system.
And once within the Wii U system they will notice the system's advantages over the competition (cheaper price, free online, polished bug-free games to name a few examples).
That in turn pushes word-of-mouth which further weakens the negative factors & drives that Second Console percentage HIGHER.

PC & PS4 don't overlap well in Second Platform. PC & XOne don't overlap well. PS4 & XOne don't overlap well.
But Wii U overlaps THE BEST over each & every one of those platforms in terms of Second Platform advantage.
That's why I know it's only a matter of time before Wii U rules the charts.
100%, 50%, or 25% it doesn't matter.

As a short-term move it was a good decision. But I'm talking about long-term.
Long-term that move is going to haunt them. They're stuck to one type of control which delivers limited styles of games.
The reason Microsoft put out Kinect last generation with XBox 360 is because Wii had an audience all to itself that could not be usurped.
By mimicking Wii with Kinect they were able to draw from that audience & boost their numbers.

Trust me I know this for a FACT. I used to monitor NPD figures each & every month.
Outside of the rare Halo spike that put 360 just over Wii in September 2007, 360 sold in a range of about 150 thousand to 300 thousand per month outside of the holidays.
Here take a look for yourself. Scroll down to see the month by month breakdown.
NPD 2007 sales figures
NPD 2008 sales figures
NPD 2009 sales figures
NPD 2010 sales figures

You'll notice in the 2010 figures that the 360 seems to reach a higher plateau in monthly sales starting in June.
What happened that June of 2010? They unveiled the Kinect-ready XBox 360 S at E3 2010 (June 14-17, 2010).
You'll also notice in December 2010 that comeuppance I frequently talk about on here with Wii undoing all of 360's efforts with a simple red paint job.
Everyone thought the redesigned 360 would conquer Wii that year & that month & Wii STILL beat them for that month & for that year.
Wii got the 2nd biggest home console monthly sales in the 7th generation (and 3rd best monthly home console sales of all time) with nearly 2.4 million Wiis sold that December.
Wii previously broke PS2's 2.7 million monthly home console sales record from December 2002 with 3.8 million in December 2009.

Anyway in 2011 before the NPD started hiding sales numbers (possibly because of that embarrassment Wii put on 360 in 2010), you see in January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December that 360 never went back to that old 150 thousand to 300 thousand range.
They were NOW in a 300 thousand to 500 thousand range.
And they achieved that through the Wii-mimic Kinect.

This is why I say it's a long-term mistake.
They were too hasty trying to outdo the PS4 that they left an ENTIRE LANE WIDE OPEN for Nintendo to plow through unchallenged.
And BECAUSE they dropped Kinect like a hot potato so quickly future buyers so used to basic XBox One controller will be hesitant to buy ANY OTHER soon-to-be-discarded outside peripheral Microsoft offers.
They painted themselves into a corner & will not be able to shoehorn a peripheral that can match what Nintendo does out of the box.

That's why I say FACT.
The best XOne can do now is to out-PS4 the PS4. That's a limited scope & leaves Nintendo to cultivate an original audience that they can have all to themselves.
Microsoft cut off their platform's agility for short-term gains.

And what happens if Nintendo finally unleashes TWO Gamepads like many were waiting for.
SmartGlass can't compete with that AT ALL (expense of extra tablets for one).
Nintendo's a standard-maker & I can say 100% that the Gamepad, the UPad, will NEVER be unbundled from the package.
Just check Nintendo's history. They will push it until you like it just like a parent makes a kid eat his peas.

Well I'll just show you a few pictures with dates that'll make you erase the "for now" from that sentence.

Magnavox Odyssey - August 1972 - Odyssey Knobs Standard

Atari Home PONG - December 1975 - Odyssey Knobs Standard

Nintendo Color TV-Game 6 - 1977 - Odyssey Knobs Standard

Atari Video Computer System AKA Atari 2600 - September 11, 1977 - Atari Joystick Standard

Magnavox Odyssey² - June 1978 - Atari Joystick Standard

Mattel Intellivision - 1979-1980 - Intellivision Keypad Standard

Atari 5200 - November 1982 - Atari Joystick Standard AND Intellivision Keypad Standard

Sega SG-1000 - July 15, 1983 - Atari Joystick Standard (Atari 5200 style)

Nintendo Family Computer/Nintendo Entertainment System - July 15, 1983 - Famicom/NES Standard

Sega SG-1000 Mark II - July 1984 - Famicom/NES Standard (with Atari-style mini-Joystick)

Sega Mark III/Sega Master System - October 20, 1985 - Famicom/NES Standard (removable Atari Standard joystick)

Atari 7800 - June 1984 Original Launch - Atari Joystick Standard (Atari 5200 style)

Atari 7800 - January 1986 Relaunch - Famicom/NES Standard (removable Atari-style joystick)

NEC PC Engine/TurboGrafx-16 - October 30, 1987 - Famicom/NES Standard

I can go on further if you want but I think you get the picture now.

Sure, I'll show you my source.
Ask Chris Seavor, former Rare employee & designer of Conker's Bad Fur Day.

Microsoft Execs Thought That They Owned Donkey Kong After Acquiring Rare

Quotes from Chris Seavor's Twitter:

"Here's a true story.. When Rare was first bought by MS a group of execs came on a tour.. One of them noticed the Donkey Kong."

"..Posters everywhere and said.. 'Hey that's great.. We own Donkey Kong right ??' ........./massivesigh"

There's also this 2003 U.S. commercial of Rare's very first title for Microsoft, XBox's Grabbed by the Ghoulies, narrated by Sean "Puff Daddy/P. Diddy" Combs mentioning "from Rare, the makers of Donkey Kong Country" at the end of the advertisement.
And there's the box art of Grabbed by the Ghoulies, a game previously being developed for the Gamecube, prominently mentioning "From the Creators of Donkey Kong Country and Banjo-Kazooie" on the front.

There's also the fact that when Microsoft decided to follow the TRUE leader of the industry in the 7th generation, Nintendo & its Wii, they used Rare to combat them.
Rare was turned into a Kinect developer. And what was Kinect if nothing but a mimic of the Wii.
Nintendo did Wii's Miis. Rare did 360's Avatars. Nintendo makes Wii Sports. Rare makes Kinect Sports.

Quote from Kinect's Wikipedia entry:
"Kinect builds on software technology developed internally by Rare, a subsidiary of Microsoft Game Studios owned by Microsoft..."

And when Wii U stumbles in the 8th generation, Microsoft follows the FALSE leader of the industry (Sony & its PS4) & drops Kinect.
What happens to Rare after Microsoft announces Kinect would no longer be a priority?

Quote from Rare's Wikipedia entry:
"Following underwhelming sales of Kinect Sports Rivals and Microsoft's announcement that the Kinect would no longer be a priority, several people have left the company.^[30]"

Microsoft would out-Nintendo Nintendo with their own personal little Nintendo-ite.
That was their goal by buying Rare in 2002. They had been sniffing around Rare since 2000 (along with Activision).
This coincidentally is merely a year after they approached Nintendo in 1999 with their $25 billion offer.

Microsoft was buying its way into this Japanese-dominated industry by hook AND by crook (FASA Studio, Bungie, Digital Anvil, Ensemble Studios).
And by buying these companies, including Rare, they thought they could absorb these company's essences & audiences.
Too many of these Japanese entities were pulling attention away from the American PC market ruled by Microsoft's Windows.
Sony's entry with the original Playstation in 1994 was the final straw & Microsoft was not going to stand by let them do it unchallenged.
That's why the Microsoft team of Alex St. John, Craig Eisler, & Eric Engstrom created The Manhattan Project AKA DirectX & USED THAT VERY SYMBOLISM of World War II in the codename: The Americans defeating the Japanese.
It was no different when they pushed DirectX through the DirectX Box AKA XBox with the codename Project Midway, a name that echoes back to The Battle of Midway of 1942. That was the battle historically considered a turning point in World War II.

Quotes from Shacknews interview with Alex St. John:

Shack: Your middle name was "Controversy" at Microsoft, it seems.

Alex St John: [laughs] Speaking of controversy, I think you'll like this. You know why the "X" on the Xbox is a glowing green X?

Shack: No.

Alex St John: You'll never hear this from anybody else because they probably don't know. The original codename for Direct X was "the Manhattan Project," because strategically it was an effort to displace Japanese game consoles with PCs and ultimately the Xbox. We called it "The Manhattan Project" because that was the codename for the program developing the nuclear bomb. We had a glowing radiation logo for the prototype for Direct X, and of course as soon as that got out and the press covered it, it caused a scandal. Microsoft PR said, "You have got to change that. You cannot be using a radiation symbol and calling this thing 'The Manhattan Project'." So we renamed it Direct X but we said, "Everybody loves the radiation symbol, so what we'll do is add legs to it to make it an 'X'." There are probably 3 people in the entire world that know how that came about. Microsoft was very funny when the Xbox launch, they said, "Oh, well, some artist made the green thing, and we thought it was cool," and I just said, "Oh stop, that was the color scheme for the Direct X logo from the very beginning."

Quotes of author Dean Takahashi from Inside the Xbox from Salon.com:

“Any of the insidery stuff they just really didn’t want to get out,” he said. “The fact that the initial code name was Project Midway — they don’t want the Japanese people to know that because it will hurt their feelings.” The Battle of Midway in 1942 was the turning point of the Pacific War. Before the November 2001 launch of the Xbox, all of the players in the console hardware market — Sony, Nintendo and Sega — were Japanese firms.

And they wonder why the Japanese don't buy XBoxes. Ha!

That's why they originally approached Nintendo. They saw Sony as the leader of the business with PS1's record sales & saw Nintendo as a prominent but hapless outdated toymaker in this big field of tech.
To defeat Sony & thus the Japanese overall, they needed to absorb Nintendo into their empire & thus absorb Nintendo's essence & audience.
But Nintendo wouldn't sell so Microsoft opted for second best—buying a PIECE of Nintendo in Rare.
Also keep in mind that Microsoft worked with ANOTHER Japanese entity during that late 1990s time—Sega.
Much like Sony did to Sega in 1992 before they fully got into the business, Microsoft tried to learn the business from Sega before superceding them with their own XBox, the intended Japanese destroyer.
That's why Dreamcast had Windows CE...which coincidentally happened to have the DirectX API inside.

Here's a fun quote from Dreamcast's Wikipedia entry:

"Microsoft developed a custom Dreamcast version of Windows CE with DirectX API and dynamic-link libraries, making it easy to port PC games to the platform,^[35] although programmers would ultimately favor Sega's development tools over those from Microsoft.^[31]"

Sega was stupid enough to let Microsoft usurp them like Sony did. Nintendo was NOT & that's why they didn't let Microsoft control them.
Not to say that Microsoft wasn't trying. They had been schmoozing their way into Nintendo's good graces since at least 1996 (a year within Microsoft's DirectX campaign).

Microsoft's Bill Gates put up that trademark smiley American face but Nintendo's Hiroshi Yamauchi knows that O'Jays song Back Stabbers & plays a game that would always keep The Leader one step ahead of its two-faced competition.

Bill Gates plays Hiroshi Yamauchi in a game of Go

Yamauchi was one hell of a Go player, by the way. He was a 6th Dan at the game, one of the master ranks.
Most likely Bill Gates lost this game he played with Yamauchi in the picture & ultimately XBox would never beat the Japanese.
Even with an abomination of a launch, PS3 is roughly dead even with XBox 360 still fighting for 2nd place in 7th gen sales nearly 10 years after 360 launched.
XBox 360 may or may not get 2nd place when all sales are tallied but it's clear they have done nothing to displace the Japanese.
Rare is probably about to be disbanded soon after the lack of sales for Kinect Sports Rivals so Microsoft's plan to out-Nintendo Nintendo with Rare fell short.

You just can't do it without Japan.
Microsoft has ALWAYS been dumb in this gaming business & Sony will be as dumb as they are if they follow behind them.
Like in that game of Go you see above, Nintendo is playing dumb Microsoft against Sony hoping that Sony will get dumb with them.
Sony's excessive focus on "The West" is showing that Nintendo's Kami no Itte 神の一手 is working just as planned.
Nintendo knows who The Boss is. Nintendo knows where The Capital is. They put it there.

I'll spell out why Japan is the Capital even further in Volume 2.

I showed my research in the original post. I did the hard work for you.
Generation by generation I broke it down. It's all there.
You can check behind me, I don't mind. Those are the sales in each generation rounded for ease of reading.
People tend to hate decimals & fractions. I always made sure to put the proper adverb before each number for accuracy.

A lot of people are hoping on that "very strong probability" that you mentioned but it's going to end up like every generation has based on that Truism.
There's a first time for many things but not EVERY thing. Where Many ends & Every begins may be hard to pinpoint but there's a line.
There will NEVER be a first time for water-based Ice to naturally exist at 200° F.
There will NEVER be a first time for the Sun to revolve around the Earth.
There will NEVER be a first time for human beings to build a civilization without a water source.

There HAS BEEN a first time for the United States to have Black President.
There WILL BE a first time for the United States to have a Female President.
There HAS BEEN a first time for a Japanese company to be run by a White man (Sir Howard Stringer).
There WILL BE a first time humankind can travel in space like Star Trek & Star Wars.

Where is the line between impossibility & possibility? That has to be discovered the hard knocks way I suppose (Trial & Error).
Human beings are curious envelope-pushing creatures. We're always trying to do the impossible so I'm not surprised by the reaction I got from my statement "The strongest console never wins".
Satoru Iwata himself said at the 2011 Game Developers Conference that Nintendo is always trying to make the impossible possible.
That just proves what was thought impossible really wasn't impossible. However, impossible DOES exist though by our nature we'll never accept it.

My "strongest console NEVER wins" statement SEEMS to fall under my 'Black President, Space Travel' category.
That it hadn't happened...YET. It doesn't SEEM as physics-based as my 'Sun can't revolve around the Earth' category.
But when I break down the defintion of what a console is...When I prove that consoles are FIXED tech that by definition CANNOT be cutting edge which is always on the move...When I show that the PC, the most powerful platform always available, has not ended the existence of consoles...when I can compare this Truism to other industries like TVs, cars, & music showing that the most technologically-advanced equipment doesn't get the most sales...

...That's when I can be sure of my statement & call it a FACT.

Do people buy the strongest most advanced TV the most or the ones that are simply "good enough"?
Do people buy the most deluxe advanced car available the most or the ones that are simply "good enough"?
Do musicians with the most technologically-advanced equipment capture the public's imagination or the ones with less tech & more heart?

That's why I know, Hedra42.
One of the best-selling games of all time was Game Boy Tetris. Hardly the most technologically advanced feat.
It was a game that drove the system where you couldn't tell if Tetris was selling Game Boy or Game Boy was selling Tetris.
Pokémon is ANOTHER title like this. A simple RPG with a cockfighting/dogfighting spirit to it on an old-tech Game Boy.
And it became a PHENOMENON.
Minecraft proves it again with its low-tech low-grade graphics. It's the Tetris & Pokémon of the modern day.
The super-advanced XBox 360, XBox One, PlayStation 3 & PlayStation 4 are all vying to get a version of a game that looks like something from the 16-bit SNES/Genesis era.

You gotta understand the nature of people, Hedra42.
Another truism, another FACT is that FOCUS GROUPS DON'T WORK.
If Nintendo listened to a focus group in 1985, they would have NEVER released the NES to the United States.
I have two sources for this, an article from Uncle John's Bathroom Reader & IGN.
I'll quote from the Bathroom Reader version of the story since it's easier to digest:

"With a new name, a light gun, and a robot, Arakawa was sure the NES would sell. He rented a booth at the Summer Consumer Electronics Show and set the ROB out in front, where everyone could see it.

He didn’t get a single order.

Why didn’t retailers want to buy? Were consumers turned off too? Arakawa didn’t know for sure, so he set up a focus group where he could watch young boys—Nintendo’s target market— play NES games. Observing the scene from behind a two-way mirror, Arakawa heard for himself how much the kids disliked the NES. “This is sh*t!” as one kid put it..."

"...Arakawa was ready to throw in the towel. He called his father-inlaw, told him the situation was hopeless, and suggested that Nintendo pull the NES out of the U.S. market. But Yamauchi refused to hear a word of it. He didn’t know much about the Consumer Electronics Show and he didn’t know much about focus groups.

One thing he did know was that the Famicom was still selling like crazy in Japan, so why couldn’t it sell well in the United States?

There was nothing wrong with the NES—he was certain of that."

You can't ASK people what they want & expect to sell things. You have to give them what they NEED even if they don't realize they need it.
You must have belief in what you're producing & share it with that audience hoping they share your belief.
People are not naturally logical. People make decisions with an emotional influence guiding every move.
Well that's why they call it e-MOTION, right. MOTION = MOVE (unintended PS3 pun there, sorry).

The NES wasn't a hit right out of the gate. They had to FIGHT for that system's success.
NES's Wikipedia entry:

"The system was originally targeted for release in the spring of 1985, but the release date was pushed back. After test-marketing in the New York City area in late fall, retailers had reportedly stated the system "failed miserably".^[21] Nintendo tried a second time; the system was test-marketed further beginning in February 1986, with the nationwide release occurring in September 1986."

All the advanced features in the world won't save you in the videogame realm against good old-fashioned gamecraft.
Good old-fashioned gamemaking. That heart I referenced with the musician's example.
The tech race is OVER. It was OVER in the 7th generation which is why Wii dominated everything in its Standard Definition glory while High Definition 360 & PS3 are still fighting for 2nd place a decade later when it doesn't even matter anymore (84 million in a decade's time in 2015???).

The tech is 'Good Enough'. 'Good Enough' is where most people buy in.
That's what a mass market device known as a videogame console should always remember.
Now you must deliver COMPELLING GAMES. THAT'S the area where people look for 'The Best'.
PlayStation 4 & XBox One CERTAINLY can deliver a QUANTITY of games, they can CERTAINLY deliver the MOST games. Yes.
But their games will not outdo Nintendo's games. Nintendo has generations of experience under their belt working with technological LIMITATIONS & shining BEYOND those limitations.
They have what it takes to outdo the competition because their QUALITY is unmatched.

Sony will fight a dumb but powerful Microsoft who has all the financial muscle in the world to bully around a weakened desperate Sony.
Microsoft'll never get rid of the Japanese like The Manhattan Project & Project Midway were supposed to do.
But they'll grind down Sony into a War Of Attrition thinking that Sony's the source of Japanese power in the game field.
Microsoft like Sony believes that POWER wins. And unfortunately for Sony, Microsoft has more POWER in their pocketbooks.

But Nintendo doesn't play that game. As they make their Divine Move, their Kami no Itte, they will ensure directly (through their gamemaking) & indirectly (through Microsoft's competitiveness) that ONCE AGAIN the Most Powerful Console WON'T WIN.
Unfortunately this generation that console is called the PlayStation 4.

Keep watching. You'll see.
It IS impossible.
John Lucas

P.S.: And as a American, I will example the technologically advanced American military in that POWER example.
America had the most technologically advanced military in the world but still couldn't beat North Vietnam.
America had the most technologically advanced military in the world but still couldn't beat Iraq.
America has the most technologically advanced military in the world but still can't beat Afghanistan.
Something to think about.

Yeah, Half of PS4 and XB1 buyers are totally buying WiiU's, that's why WiiU sold 1m units in Nov NPD.

My goodness, how did you even arrive at it being half of XB1/PS4 owners when there is no proof or history of that whatsoever ...

It's pretty obvious to everyone WiiU is going to top out between 15m and 19m units sold lifetime, this will become a matter of fact in late 2016.

@ JL

*Mind explodes* That's one passionate post, and some huge amount of research going in there. If I tried to address every point you made to the level of detail you have, I would be writing a book, but I don't want to insult you by generalising in my reply too much.

Firstly -

I only agreed with the Second Console idea in theory. In reality, the majority of people will only ever have one console. At the moment, the vast majority of people don't have an 8th gen console at all, and many of them don't have one because they're waiting for prices to come down. Those people are more likely to only buy either PS4, OR Wii U OR X1, whether they own a gaming PC or not. Sure, there will be some who will have two, or even all three, but they're not going to make a huge difference.

As for Nintendo winning people over now, it's going to be an uphill struggle. They may have high quality games, but I reiterate - Mario and friends aren't for everyone. The Wii U was badly marketed and inadequately advertised, with hardly any games. It got it off to a bad start. Wii U will be a distant 3rd, if Nintendo don't get up and do something about that, but really they've left it far too late. I'm not saying it's impossible for a console to surge forward mid-generation, just improbable. And thus emerges the theme for my post.

Secondly -

You pose an interesting argument regarding the possible long-term implications of getting rid of Kinect. It seems from your evidence that Kinect did wonders for the PS3, but perhaps Microsoft have caught on to the fact that people just aren't so wowed with motion controls any more. Even Nintendo have removed the emphasis on it, somewhat. Still, yes, it's possible that being the only company touting any kind of motion control as a part of its central controller might benefit Nintendo in the long run. If, they market and advertise like mad. But it's improbable.

And that leads me on to the third point - standard controllers. Undeniably, your pictorial history shows trailblazing controllers that set the standards for their time. Not all of them are Nintendo. But look how they've become obsolete as time moves on. The generic shape and size of the the controllers people use today are variations on a general ergonomic theme, which again, may or may not be usurped in time.

Fourthly -

Most of your evidence here is anecdotal, and there's still no back up for Rare being the consolation prize for not being able to acquire Nintendo. I don't dispute that the majority of the videogaming industry is coming from Japanese firms.

Fifthly -

The Sun revolving around the Earth and all of the other absurd things you've put has NOTHING to do with the the fact that at this moment in time, it is highly probable, barring any extraordinary developments along the way, that the PS4 will be the most popular console of this generation. In fact, I'll turn it around another way.

Your argument that the strongest console NEVER wins, is based on lots of historical evidence throughout the various generations up until now. So, just consider for a moment, that the PS4's success is that highly improbable factor that has bucked the trend. Yet your whole thesis of Nintendo 'winning' is based around the highly improbable chance that 1 in 4 PS4 and X1 owners will buy a Wii U as a second console.

All of your research, the entire sentiment of your posts, are basically 'Possible Ways Nintendo Can Win', based on things that have happened in the past. Yes, there is the tiniest, micro-possibility that something might happen that will sell the Wii U like crazy. Just like the tiniest, micro-possibility that we might find some kind of living organism elsewhere in our Solar System.

There's nothing wrong with posting optimism based on wild possibilities. But possibilities is all they are.

I'm looking at probabilities, which, while still subject to change, are closer to reality.

You're just making up random calculations with no facts or logic to support them. Why would 50% of PS4/PC/XBO owners buy a WiiU?

Oh let me guess, cause of dat Nintendo "magic" right?

Same reason why the Gamecube stomped the PS2- oh wait.

so, half of xbox1 and ps4 owners are gonna buy wii Us eh.... so that puts them in a solid second.....no...wait... their dead last... there goes that theory.

I'm still not done with the debates here.
But I got even more debates for you in the newly released Volume 2.

st0pnsw0p, I'll give you my long-awaited reply very soon.
You're first on my list in this Volume 1 debate, OK?

John Lucas

OK after a little break in the action, let's reignite this conversation.
Like I promised, st0pnsw0p gets the first reply to his January 16, 2015 post.

Yes, handheld consoles will ALWAYS overlap home consoles because they serve a distinct function home consoles can't match.
You are correct there. AND smartphones can overlap for the same reasons. A distinct platform that gives you a type of gaming you don't quite get on one platform you choose. True again.
But if you think Wii U can't serve a distinct function in consoles to a significant degree you are mistaken.

The Wii U is the ONLY Handheld Home Console. The ONLY console that can play itself WITHOUT a TV—without any external assistance.
The uniqueness of the platform will draw others to it as the games show off its winning features.
That uniqueness creates natural exclusivity by design which attracts people to the platform whether they pick Wii U as their main console or whether they pick it as their secondary console. From each audience, Wii U's games will have a 'must play, must own' factor due to its uniqueness.
Players won't get to have these experiences anywhere else, so sales of the platform rise.

Nintendo's slow start getting the library over to Wii U won't let you see this FACT right now.
But that Wii U library is going to be the most anticipated, most desired library this year.
And this year they're not gonna be spread sparsely throughout the year, they're coming back to back.
Same effect that 3DS had like I said many times before.

Once people flood into the system Wii U's advantages will shine.
How many people will be shocked to see that you don't have to pay a fee to play online?
How many people will be charmed by that Miiverse full of talented drawings?
How will those amiibos take the Wii U into another dimension?
How fresh will the Wii U ecosystem look when the others start looking stale?

If the manufacturers agree to produce towards one standard, then that forces the customers.
If the manufacturers phased out DVD's leaving you only Blu-ray to choose from, then Blu-ray would be the disc choice because you can't find anything else on the shelves. If Sony was able to get manufacturers to use its Betamax standard, then we would not have known VHS.

In that last silly format war between HD DVD & Blu-ray, the Blu-ray backers outmuscled the HD DVD backers.
When HD DVD was not seen as much in the stores, the customer only had a natural choice to make: the remaining one.
Customers only have as much choice as the manufacturers give them.
What if there was a disc format better than both Blu-ray AND HD DVD?

But those audio/video industries are much more open than the videogame industry is.
There are only 3 major console makers whereas there are dozens of major audio/video format makers & audio/video player makers.

The fact that every controller since the Famicom/NES follows Nintendo's standards means that Nintendo's weight weighs heavy on this industry.
Sooner or later, all console manufacturers conform to Nintendo's standards one way or another.
So those in the 1990s who didn't like analog stick controls (like one of my relatives) had to accept them eventually once the other manufacturers added those same analog controls to their controllers.
The one who complained about Super Mario 64's controls would either have to stop modern gaming or learn how to use one of those analog sticks.

And Nintendo has that standard-making weight because they make them the default controller of their systems.
They give you limited choice AFTERWARDS but push you to use their default controller over all else.
You're GOING to learn that Control Pad, Joystick boy!
You're GOING to learn the A, B, X, Y, L, R set up, A/B boy!
You're GOING to learn that Control Stick, Control Pad boy!
You're GOING to learn Offskew Analog, Dual Analog boy!
You're GOING to learn that motion-control Wiimote, Standard pad boy!
You're GOING to learn that Touchscreen, Button boy!
You're GOING to learn that Upad, "Traditional" boy!

That's how they make those standards that control this industry. They give you no choice but to learn it in order to play their games.
And their games have such a compelling quality that you will take the time to learn the new standards.
If you think you can sidestep them, you'll learn like my relative did that's there no escape.
The competition has to co-opt these controls to prevent Nintendo from cultivating an impenetrable market all to themselves.
So the console you escaped to will become just like the one you escaped from.
The videogame industry is a much more intimate industry than audio/video manufacturing.
And Nintendo's the big fish in this small pond.

I sort of got ahead of myself but like I said in the earlier paragraphs, Nintendo DID force their controllers.
By making the NES controller the default controller, they forced it as the standard.
They didn't give you Joysticks until much later with the NES Advantage.
They made their games to work BETTER with the standard NES controller than all others.
Harder to get that needed Super Mario Bros. precision on the NES Advantage's joystick.

Same goes for Wiimote. There's a reason they made the Classic Controllers sort of clunky.
They didn't want you gravitating towards them. They wanted you to learn that Wiimote.
That's how you make standards. That's how they can continue to steer the course of input design decade after decade.

And like I said just before in the last section, you can't run forever. The competition co-opts Nintendo's standards sooner or later.
So you're effectively playing with what you didn't want to play with on a non-Nintendo system.
Sega got rid of their Genesis-styled offshoot of the NES standard by the time they got to the Sega Dreamcast with its color-coded diamond-patterned action buttons—just like Super Famicom/SNES.
They already added SNES' L & R triggers on their Saturn. It was only a matter of time.

Sony had to get in line REAL QUICK in the N64 era. That original doubled up SNES controller they had called the PlayStation controller would not stack up to N64's functional analog Control Stick.
So they quickly added a couple of analog sticks to their PS1 controller & called it Dual Analog.
Then Nintendo drops the masterpiece known as Star Fox 64 with its vibrating Rumble Pak & Sony said "Oh my God! Again?"
They quickly revision this recent revision into a rumbling controller called the DualShock.
They just put out the Dual Analog & now it's obsolete? Hahahaha.

DualShock 4 has so many Wii touches with its internal speaker & its Light Bar so reminiscent of Wiimote's infrared pointer.
That's not counting the motion-control aspects it has from the Sixaxis AKA DualShock 3.
And Sony is trying to repurpose the VERY Wiimote-like Move in its Project Morpheus campaign.

Microsoft couldn't WAIT for Nintendo's Control Pad patent to expire so that they could get the true Nintendo Cross on their XBox One controller.

There's nowhere to escape. This is Nintendo's industry.
They all bow down sooner or later.

Why do people always try to downplay what Nintendo does in this industry?

NOBODY had a pad you could hold in your hands with that kind of directional control before Nintendo put out the Famicom/NES.
NOBODY.
They took their handheld Game & Watch & made it the template for the Famicom/NES controller's design.

Some people had separate buttons for Up, Down, Left, Right on a arcade cabinet.
Some people had smooth moving trackballs on arcade cabinets.
Some people had a sliding disc on a console controller with numerical keys.

NOBODY EVER had a controller that could fit within your hands alone that you could control entirely with your thumbs.
It's not easy to play Atari joysticks in your hands alone. You have to root them on the floor on in your lap or something.
It's not easy to play the Intellivision disc & keypad setup in your hands alone. It's awkward because you can't reach all the buttons.
It has to played on the floor or rooted on some part of your body just as well.

Nintendo changed all of this which is why every controller from that point forward emulated what Nintendo did.
Quit trying to downplay their revolution. I already post the picture truth in an earlier reply to Hedra42.

And nobody ever put together what Nintendo did with the Wiimote in controller & game design.
Nintendo didn't invent the touchscreen either. If that's the bent you're going off of.
Touchscreens are older than the videogame industry itself. Still doesn't discount what Nintendo did to make touchscreens STANDARDS in videogaming.
Nobody even TRIED to pursue what Nintendo pursued when they put out that Wiimote.
A stackable versatile controller that can be a motion wand, a loose-handed version of the "standard" controller, the NES controller all over again, a light gun, a steering wheel, a mouse pointer, a telephone receiver, & more all at the same.

You go on & on about "standard". I TOLD you who made that standard. I TOLD you who made the tradition.
And the truth is Wiimote & Upad are WITHIN this tradition. They're STILL part of the same evolution.
When Wiimote & Nunchuk are combined, you have an AMBIDEXTEROUS loose-handed version of the "traditional" controller standard.
They broke the plank in half & gave you a chance to play with your hands in a more relaxed position.
What would be the L trigger on an old-style controller is now the Z trigger on the Nunchuk.
What would be the R trigger on an old-style controller is now the B trigger on the Wiimote.
Control Stick is on the Nunchuk & for the first time you can play the Control Stick on the RIGHT-hand side.
Left-handed people can finally get away from the right-handed bias controllers usually have.

The second offskew analog control stick known as the C-stick on the Gamecube has been replaced with the analog nature of Wiimote's motion.
The entire Wiimote is a C-Stick! With the action buttons involved you can do more things by holding A & moving the Wiimote around.
It's BETTER than a simple second analog movement. It's more versatile that way. More options for gameplay.

Then taking it all the way back to its roots, all you have to do is turn the Wiimote on its side & it's the NES controller all over again.
Wiimote's 1 button is NES's B button. Wiimote's 2 button is NES's A button.
Nintendo's Cross, the Control Pad, is still in the same place as ever.
Wiimote's (–) button is NES's Select button. Wiimote's (+) button is NES's Start button.
But THIS time there's gyro motion controls to give it that extra spice as we see in games like New Super Mario Bros. Wii.

Upad? It's just like the Game Boy Advance. A big screen in the middle of the controller.
All of Nintendo handhelds have the controller be one & the same as the viewing screen.
The whole NES standard came off of the handheld Game & Watch anyway. NES is pretty much Game & Watch without the screen.

You still have your SNES-styled diamond layout for the action buttons A B X Y. You still have L & R triggers.
You even have Z triggers under those L & R's like the N64's Z trigger.
Analog Control Sticks like N64 & Gamecube even though this time they're even not offskew.
Control Pad's still there as always. Select & Start are there again with their alternate names (–) & (+).
And DS's touchscreen is there with stylus intact.

All of these controllers still on the same evolutionary path from the NES standard but the stagnancy that non-gamemakers Sony & Microsoft brought into the business have brainwashed people into this "traditional" controller nonsense.
The real TRADITION is CHANGE of the controller. It has ALWAYS changed & kept evolving. And will CONTINUE to evolve.

That arcade era you talked about never had whiny gamers complaining about "traditional" controls.
We could get down with a cabinet you make striking motions with like Heavyweight Champ.
We could get down with Centipede's trackball. We didn't complain about Robotron 2084's dual joystick controls.
We didn't get wigged out when Defender only moved Up & Down on the joystick & Left & Right with action buttons.
We enthusiastically tried to learn how to steer that driving wheel in Pole Position.
We didn't boo-hoo when we had to learn that 6-button layout & joystick complexity of Street Fighter II.

Nintendo comes from this era & that's why this is not weird to them to experiment with control inputs.
But visionless followers like Sony & Microsoft have created a significant amount of players who are similarly visionless followers.
Too scared to try anything new. Too scared to take a chance & learn a new way to play.
That's why it's important that The Boss keeps doing what they do. That's why it's important for Nintendo to lead this industry.
Nintendo's pioneering will be followed by the visionless ones & it keeps gamers from stagnating.

Nintendo is not just "a very influential force" in this inudstry.
They are THE Influential Force in this industry ever since the Famicom/NES & continue to be today.
Their countless innovations have transformed & continue to transform the way we play videogames. FACT.

GBA had a shortened lifespan, st0pnsw0p. It only had 3 years to itself before DS showed up.
The system was pretty much over in 2007 after just 6 years of life. And it got most of that near 82 million well before 2007.
Besides it was financially successful as well as commercially successful.
The same doesn't apply to PSP or PS3.

PS3 lost BILLIONS for Sony & it STILL struggles to get beyond 85 million nearly 10 years later.
It wouldn't even have gotten that 85 million if it didn't try to emulate Wii! That's what's so ironic about it.
PS3 sales doubled once they rebirthed the console as PS3 Slim with the Wiimote-like Move controller.

PSP ALSO lost BILLIONS for Sony & that 80 million (no, it did NOT outsell GBA) it took most of its 10 years to get was not accompanied by significant game purchases or UMD purchases.
The ones buying PSP's were bootlegging old games from old systems on it.
It was the best handheld challenger Nintendo ever had in the term of hardware sales but that's not saying much when it comes in distant 2nd.
It DEFINITELY was not the best challenger in software sales. It DEFINITELY did not live up to its mission to be the Walkman of the 21st Century.
It DEFINITELY did not live up to its stated goal to "elevate portable entertainment outof the handheld gaming ghetto".
That insult about 'handheld gaming ghetto' referring to Nintendo's handheld dominance.

That's one reason why Vita has no power.
PSP didn't truly resonate & they couldn't carry over anything they achieved on PSP to its successor.
GBA COULD carry its success over to DS. THAT'S the difference.

Not only did GBA outsell PSP entirely & outsell PS3 in aligned time spans but it made money for Nintendo & had positive influence on the industry.
That's why I say Viable. The 'Vi' part means Life, Vitality.
GBA had Vitality, PSP & PS3 were zombies infused with artificial life by Sony's subsidizing.
Without the rest of Sony Corporation covering for those financial failures, Sony Computer Entertainment would have been put out of business with those 2 consoles, PSP & PS3.
If I sell 1 billion $1 trinkets but it took me $2 billion to make those trinkets, that's not success. That's failure.

There's really no comparison between GBA & Sony's 7th gen money pits.

Too many facts for ya, huh?
I'm thorough. I try to cover all bases. Hard to find holes in my statements.
You can't argue with it because it's true.
Japan is the Capital of the Videogame Industry.

I understand your confusion on this.
That statement "The Most Powerful Console NEVER Wins" SOUNDS like saying "There will NEVER be a Black President".
I already covered this with Hedra42 but I'll explain it to you.

If power sold systems, then consoles would no longer exist because the PC is the most POWERFUL platform ALWAYS by default.
The fact that consoles still exist shows that raw power does not make sales.

It's a more physics based kind of thing on this topic unlike the "Black President" thing.

Crytek believed in horsepower as I show in my recently released FACTS vs. FICTION – Volume 2.
They believed that graphical displays were 60% of the game.
Then Crysis 3 & Ryse: Son of Rome underperformed & Crytek couldn't make payroll as the CEO tried to find a financier to float the company.

Everytime a company reaches for that power ring bad things happen one way or another.
Sony reached for the power ring once again this generation & though it looks good for them today, they're gonna suffer long term.
Microsoft is gonna undercut them this entire generation much like they did last generation.
Both companies are vying for the same prize but Microsoft has much more financial muscle than Sony does.
They'll negate that so-called power advantage Sony has the longer this generation goes on.
And with Sony fighting off a relentless Microsoft, Nintendo will slither in unnoticed & entrench themselves.

XBox One & PlayStation 4 are so close & so similar that minor power advantages won't make a difference.
They have the same suppliers & Microsoft is in this videogame business solely to unseat Sony who they believe is the key to removing Japanese power in this industry (they're wrong. it's Nintendo but anyway...).
Microsoft wants to return the Capital back to America & believes Sony is the obstacle preventing this.
They will run THROUGH that obstacle. That's why they don't mind losing billions upon billions year after year on this XBox campaign.
Microsoft says that THEY are the King of Computers & that Sony COMPUTER Entertainment will not horn in on this kingdom.
Microsoft will fight for control of those 3rd party game suppliers & all of Sony's PS4 power won't be able to save them once Microsoft starts this War Of Attrition.
In truth the worst thing Sony will have ever done is enter this videogame business all those years ago.
When Sony COMPUTER Entertainment arrived on the scene, they had a ready-made enemy in Microsoft.

Vita is already Dead. Vita Est Mortis. Power didn't save that one. Power ain't gonna save this one either.
Power Does Not Sell Consoles. That's just the facts.

You'll just have to learn the hard way like Sony will.

John Lucas

So much delusion going on by John Lucas it's not even funny. Having an encyclopedic knowledge of the history of Nintendo does not justify the the heaps of illogical nonsense and double standards you've spewed all over this thread,

If Vita is dead based on sales then the Wii U must be dead too since its outselling the Wii U. But yet sales are going to magically pick up for the Wii U simply because you can't imagine a world where it doesn't.. Since you made the original post the Wii U has lost even further ground. What specific Nintendo action, whether it be a price drop, video game release, whatever is going to lead to the Wii U actually outselling the PS4 or Xbox One globally from that point onwards, or is it pure magic?

Ah, potato_hamster. Sorry for my delay on this reply.
I was busy getting my Club Nintendo coins together before the deadline & also doing my best to finally beat The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword.
Finally beat it this past Saturday (April 18th) & WOW what a game! Can't WAIT for Zelda Wii U now!

Anyhow back to the point.
I not only have an encyclopedic knowledge of the history of Nintendo but I have an encyclopedic knowledge of the videogame industry in general.
I'm adding new pages to that encyclopedia all the time.

Wii U is selling slow no doubt about it. My milestones predicted in the UNITY post are definitely delayed because of it.
My short-terms have definitely missed but my long-term still stands.

Don't EVER think you can call an entire generation on a snapshot of its first years.
If you had the encyclopedic knowledge of videogaming that I have, you would think back to the 4th generation where the more powerful SNES took YEARS to overcome the Sega Genesis/Mega Drive.
If Sega didn't flake out at the last minute with all that Sega CD/32X/Saturn mess, they would have won the 4th generation.
We didn't get to see weekly/monthly sales charts back then. We were just kids who played the games.
It was a simpler time where we didn't obsess about system specs & instead focused on which console had the better games.

See in hindsight the SNES is looked back on as part of the Golden Age of gaming.
But in truth, SNES was ALWAYS in the shadow of something else its entire life.
For its first 3 years, the SNES was in the shadow of the NES.
They were still putting out major NES games in the SNES's early life.
(Mega Man 6 came out in 1994!)

Nintendo's output on the SNES was pretty bare actually in those early years.
In 1991, Nintendo published launch titles F-Zero, Pilotwings, Sim City, & Super Mario World.
All that came out on August 23, 1991 in the U.S.
On November 2, 1991, Nintendo published Super Tennis. That was it. Its big holiday title for that year. Not really much of an anchor there.
1992 brings us Super Scope 6 (February), The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past (April), Super Soccer (May), Super Play Action Football (August), Mario Paint (August), Super Mario Kart (September), Battle Clash (October).
That certainly pads 1991's lineup & there's a lot of legendary games on that list but SNES was STILL fighting to get out of the shadow of the NES in that year.

And in 1993, Nintendo hardly put out ANYTHING!
All we got was Star Fox (March), Vegas Stakes (May), Super Mario All-Stars (August), Yoshi's Safari (September), NHL Stanley Cup (November).
Only 2 titles on that list have any real resonance & one of them is a remade compilation of NES games!
The other one came out early in the year! Star Fox is supposed to hold the SNES down for the entire year???

But 1993 was the year that NES finally started giving way.
That's the year they released the NES Top Loader which resembled the SNES design.
Yet as soon as SNES was finally able to get out of NES's shadow they soon enter another shadow called the 5th Generation which was being kickstarted by Atari Jaguar & the 3DO that year of 1993.
Also everybody knew that Sony was coming with their console.

While the SNES was in the NES's shadow, the Genesis was wiping the floor with them in the overall market.
By the start of 1992, Sega Genesis owned 65% of the 4th Generation home console market.
Nintendo had a trickle of strong games coming out but not in enough volume to keep up with Genesis.
The tug-of-war over Street Fighter II certainly boosted Nintendo but Mortal Kombat & the censored blood hurt them.
And that weak 1993 output would not be enough to hold down the fort.

But what happened in SNES's 4th year, 1994?
What happened in that year where Sega would enter the 5th Generation race with the Saturn & Sony would finally unleash their PlayStation?
Nintendo dropped the bombshell called Donkey Kong Country.
THAT was the game that caused the SNES to rally in the SNES vs. Genesis fight.
It extended the life of the console even in the midst of all these new 32-bit 5th Generation competitors.
And with that game fueling it, SNES was able to run the clock out on Genesis & eek out that 49 million sales victory for the 4th Gen.

There's a reason why SNES sold LESS than NES's near 62 million & that's because the console was constantly under a shadow.
In truth, the SNES's lifespan was cut short. That's why in Japan they were still selling new Super Famicom games all the way up to 1999.
Games like Fire Emblem: Thracia 776. That's why Super Famicom's Satellaview ran all the way into the year 2000.

Every generation plays out differently.
You're expecting a 6th generation PS2-style rout for this generation but I wouldn't count on that with a desperate Microsoft in the mix.
Not to mention a cagey sly Nintendo waiting to unleash a trump card at any given notice.
Just like they did in 1994 with Donkey Kong Country.
Just like they did in 1996 with Pocket Monsters (Pokémon).

Unlike the 4th generation, there are no new incoming competitors to the console market to force a jump to a new generation.
So Nintendo has plenty of time to restore their lost ground.
The Zelda push back signals confidence to me. They are sure enough on Wii U's chances that they can make 2015 successful even WITHOUT it.
They have MANY trump cards left to play & we're gonna see some of them at the coming E3 this year.

They will hold their ground on the price so as not to make a Gamecube-style mistake.
It will not be just ONE game that moves the system but a NETWORK of games that moves the system.
Just like it was for the once-struggling 3DS that everybody now praises.
Wii U is nowhere near dead like Vita is & one reason for that is because it is PROFITABLE.
I don't see Vitas on store shelves anymore but I still see Wii U's. There's a definite difference.
Especially when you hear public statements from Sony that they are no longer making games for Vita but Nintendo insisting that games are still being made for Wii U.

You mentioned XBox One.
Keep in mind that about this time last year XBox One was selling about as bad as Wii U is selling now.
Month after month we heard reports of PS4 outselling both Wii U & XBox One COMBINED.
Then all of a sudden BAM sales explosion. Now it's competitive on the sales race with PS4.
If it happened just that quick on XBox One which was almost universally hated at E3 2013, why don't you think the same can't happen to Wii U?

I know history very well but I also know the structure of this business.
That's why I can be so sure on my statements.
The 8th Generation has just begun. As you will hear me say in Volume 3, there are no 5 year console cycles.
As ThaBlackBaron from YouTube would say 'This is not a sprint, this is a marathon'.
At the end of the race I know the outcome. Nintendo UNIFYING the gaming world under them.
And that UNIFICATION guaranteeing their #1 spot.

Don't EVER think you can call this entire generation on a snapshot of its first years.
The Most Powerful Console NEVER Wins. There ARE no exceptions to this rule.
Games sell consoles. Not power.

John Lucas