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Forums - Sony - PS4 2015: 17.5m | 55% market share

theprof00 on 31 December 2014
drdante said:
theprof00 said:

A quick estimate would be 10m and 4m...but it's really all about how and when they price drop. It's a really tough call. As you can see, the slim model on ps3 improved sales by almost 100%. It's crazy.

Plus, I have an alternative theory out there that the xb1 was designed to be oversized purposely to make a slim-line model much earlier. PS3 took 3 years before slim...but x1 has a new chipset coming out, possibly smaller ram chips, and a much smaller box. They could do it in less than 2 years imo. IF they can get a slim out, I think they can easily nab 12m

ok this could be apply to the US only...not globally, because even with price drops and new slim model it couldn't convince the global market to buy it. MS does not have global support

so i'm guessing maybe 7-9 million.

If they can get down to a 299$ price and a slim bundle, it should be fine.

To be honest. MS MUST sell at least 12m next year. If x1 only sells 8m in a year that has a main entry halo game...then they might as well start working on releasing the next console as soon as possible, because it's game over. It will be only be at 20m, against a close-to-40m behemoth. When you factor in that 2016 is likely going to see another 20m+ for ps4..it's real bad.

I mean, the game is already over for x1. The lead is too big...but they will fight, because they have to. Now, if they do 12, and get say 22-24m against 38m...they're still in the ballgame. Anything less and say goodbye to exclusivity, mulitplats, etc. It'll be ps2 vs xbox all over again.



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theprof00 on 31 December 2014
BraLoD said:

If Uncharted 4 is not AAA, I really don't know what is.
Also we will have Metal Gear Solid 5 which will basically be a PS4 exclusive game (in term of pushing console sales).
Bloodborne can be a new IP, but it's not like this in it's core, it's recognized as a Dark Souls successor and already have it's fanbase willing to jump on it.
We have The Order 1886 which is also an AAA game but this is a really new IP, so this one I get what you are saying.

PS4 2014 and 2015 are completely different years, with good games spread all over the year, 1st and 3rd party (as Batman, AC, FIFA, COD, The Witcher, and all that). And if we get a price cut by E3, I can't see it ending 2015 (not FY, the actual year) with less than 40M consoles sold.

But as always, we will need to wait and see
But PS4 still didn't failed to amaze us xD

No, I know, I didn't mean UC4. In the data, I actually attributed several hundred thousands of console sales to it. It'll be a big mover. MGS5 will push a lot as well. But 2014 was really solid too. Infamous, LBP, CoD, TLoU remake, DriveClub, Destiny, Watch Dogs I mean, that's ****** solid, right?

You're right it's a tough call...and you're also right that ps4 continues to amaze and astound. I really do hope it can sell 20m next year. I doubt it, but I hope so. As for myself, I'm picking one up Sunday.



theprof00 on 31 December 2014
BraLoD said:

Great xD
I'll help next year numbers though

Mine is next year too!

Hopefully we can get everyone on vgc a ps4, if we do, then Sony will be 93 consoles closer to 20m. :D



DonFerrari on 31 December 2014

Nahhhh it will reach 20M... actually 17.5M would be a pretty small YOY growth.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Groundking on 31 December 2014
theprof00 said:
Groundking said:
It will do a lot more than 3.5m next december, when you consider it's going to do 4m+ just this december, right now I'm predicting 6mill alone just in December next year.

Actually, sorry, my numbers have it at 4.5m in the graph. I miswrote. But how do you figure ps4 is going to do 4m+ in december. Right now we have week 1 at 750
Week 2 at 850

To reach 4m+ it needs to do 2.4m in the next two weeks, which seems pretty iffy.

maybe next week, if they're lucky 1050
Then they would need 1350.

That's really a huge number just to reach 4m.


We have 3 weeks left don't we? if not I still think 3.70m (I was thinking next week 950, christmas week 1200, 400k new years week, giving 4m) 



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theprof00 on 31 December 2014
DonFerrari said:
Nahhhh it will reach 20M... actually 17.5M would be a pretty small YOY growth.

17.5m would be almost the second best year in playstation history. Don't get caught up with words like "pretty small yoy growth". Look at the graph..it's almost 100k higher every single week. Where do you justify 20m? I mean, I would have rathered it been 20m, but where do the numbers go? I even think most of my weeks are overestimated frankly.

In addition, can Sony even MAKE 20m consoles in a year? I just don't know. If you think that ps4 will have higher peaks than the numbers in the graph, it's really going to take a toll on inventory. Going to be hard to keep up those kinds of sales with the only reasoning to increase production being "this year has better games".



platformmaster918 on 31 December 2014
theprof00 said:
DonFerrari said:
Nahhhh it will reach 20M... actually 17.5M would be a pretty small YOY growth.

17.5m would be almost the second best year in playstation history. Don't get caught up with words like "pretty small yoy growth". Look at the graph..it's almost 100k higher every single week. Where do you justify 20m? I mean, I would have rathered it been 20m, but where do the numbers go? I even think most of my weeks are overestimated frankly.

In addition, can Sony even MAKE 20m consoles in a year? I just don't know. If you think that ps4 will have higher peaks than the numbers in the graph, it's really going to take a toll on inventory. Going to be hard to keep up those kinds of sales with the only reasoning to increase production being "this year has better games".

I think a September price cut is likely given how much production costs must have come down in what will be almost 2 years with standard parts and new models.  That would get it closer to 20m.  You just know it's gonna get CRAZY once they get to $299.  Now maybe Sony will try to give themselves more price drop bumps this gen and drop $50 each time instead of $100 and if it only goes to $350 then I could see it being closer to your number.  Also Uncharted, natural yoy growth, Ratchet, The Order, Bloodborne, and increased Japanese appeal will all drive growth as well as availability in the first couple months of the year unlike 2014.  I don't know looking at the percentage increases of past Playstation consoles it seems like it could be closer to 20m and ESPECIALLY with a price cut. I think most of those games I mentioned have AT LEAST as much system selling power as Infamous.  This could be the revival of interest in Ratchet with the movie coming out around the same time.  Kids could pick up that and LBP3 along with a PS4 and parents will support it which could open up a whole new market for Sony and Playstation this gen.




Get Your Portable ID!Lord of Ratchet and Clank

Duke of Playstation Plus

Warden of Platformers

theprof00 on 31 December 2014

Think about this, because I dont think people appreciate how absurd 20m is.
1 sony have already admitted inventory problems in their strongest region, europe just this year.
2. Ps2 best year had 22.5m consoles shipped in 2002. The console price dropped in may to 190920 and holiday price of 179.
3. 20m is just shy of 400k consoles per week average.



DonFerrari on 01 January 2015
theprof00 said:
DonFerrari said:
Nahhhh it will reach 20M... actually 17.5M would be a pretty small YOY growth.

17.5m would be almost the second best year in playstation history. Don't get caught up with words like "pretty small yoy growth". Look at the graph..it's almost 100k higher every single week. Where do you justify 20m? I mean, I would have rathered it been 20m, but where do the numbers go? I even think most of my weeks are overestimated frankly.

In addition, can Sony even MAKE 20m consoles in a year? I just don't know. If you think that ps4 will have higher peaks than the numbers in the graph, it's really going to take a toll on inventory. Going to be hard to keep up those kinds of sales with the only reasoning to increase production being "this year has better games".

Why being the second best year in history matter? 16M first full year is the biggest ever for ps, bigger than ps3 biggest year, normal growth on ps platform is bigger than what you put. Second year rate of production will be bigger than first, Wii had problems to produce 15.5M for first full year but still sold 20 and 25M after that.

using normal sales spreed through the year means 10M for q4-q2 or 39 weeks and 10M for q3 or 13 weeks. Meaning 250k weekly average for those (since summer is slower we could be seeing 275k outside summer and 200k on summer) and q3 weeks 750k average. It is quite high numbers but not impossible.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

theprof00 on 06 January 2015
DonFerrari said:
theprof00 said:
DonFerrari said:
Nahhhh it will reach 20M... actually 17.5M would be a pretty small YOY growth.

17.5m would be almost the second best year in playstation history. Don't get caught up with words like "pretty small yoy growth". Look at the graph..it's almost 100k higher every single week. Where do you justify 20m? I mean, I would have rathered it been 20m, but where do the numbers go? I even think most of my weeks are overestimated frankly.

In addition, can Sony even MAKE 20m consoles in a year? I just don't know. If you think that ps4 will have higher peaks than the numbers in the graph, it's really going to take a toll on inventory. Going to be hard to keep up those kinds of sales with the only reasoning to increase production being "this year has better games".

Why being the second best year in history matter? 16M first full year is the biggest ever for ps, bigger than ps3 biggest year, normal growth on ps platform is bigger than what you put. Second year rate of production will be bigger than first, Wii had problems to produce 15.5M for first full year but still sold 20 and 25M after that.

using normal sales spreed through the year means 10M for q4-q2 or 39 weeks and 10M for q3 or 13 weeks. Meaning 250k weekly average for those (since summer is slower we could be seeing 275k outside summer and 200k on summer) and q3 weeks 750k average. It is quite high numbers but not impossible.

But see, it didn't hit 16m :D