Nice read and interesting thread...

I think third parties should go one way: quit multiplatform, and make unique and original games for each console, using the best of each system possibilities...

This strategy may seem a bit risky, but i think it's the best way for their games to stand out and trully shine...

Of course, we all know it will never be the case with most sports games, and games like Guitar Hero, or the future hit Spore... but in the case of adventure/action, rpg's, platformers, i think that's the way to go...

A last point: if some third parties begin to think that way, Wii will be the easiest and less risky choice, due to lower costs and large userbase... 360 will indeed come second, due to the PC-like development... PS3 would (once again) suffer...

After reading, I agree, it is going the wrong way. If you do not add Nintendo, the console business lost money last year. And take in mind that MS, probably Sony, and other companies, do not add commercialising as a loss for the gaming division, but somewhere else. That means the number is probably even worse.

Would the Ps3 really be so deep in it if what you call WCS for them happens?

Wouldn't something like this be the situation:

1. Third parties lose too much money, almost all of them go to Wii and start developing.
2. The X360 and Ps3 are lacking in games, and alone, they are not worth producing for.
3. All X360 games are also ported to Ps3 and other way around. This makes it cost 10% more to develop, solely by porting. There are also other higher prices, but the Wii will have very big competition, and little on X360/PS3, so dev's will at once this happens, start developing MPs.

What I believe is WCS for Ps3, is if this happens:

1. Third parties lose too much money, almost all of them go to Wii and start developing.
2. Microsoft shuts down X360, because it is losing to much money. They have vulnerated this before.
3. Ps3 now has a much smaller userbase, and is higher priced to develop for, in reality, it is doomed.

About the 1 console, that won't happen. Microsoft has put heaps of money into their gaming division, I doubt they will leave totally that fast.
Sony has a superb brandname with the Playstation. There's no way they will leave.

The only reason I see those two leaving, is if 2-3 other companies also join in and make consoles.

Therefore, the only "realistic" solution, is that Nintendo goes bankrupt. They can't afford to lose money, so if they start losing money, they have to go out.

 I would fucking quit gaming and go buy a 4 wheeler if that happened.

I think too many developers are emphasizing "looks perfect" over "plays fun." This leads to a rush to do too much graphically -- which increases costs.

Mike from Morgantown

Source: Business Week

Graphics have looked pretty good to me since Half-Life so can we focus on gameplay and adding more feautures. Basically good graphics should be a given now days so focus on the little things to make your game stand out.

Not really "realistic", that's the least i could say...  :)

First, Nintendo has NEVER lost money, even in their so-called "worst years" during the Cube area...

And now, Ninty is N°1 dev in Japan, US and Europe, and N°1 console manufacturer in both handheld and home console markets, worldwide... they're richer than ever, and their shares are at an all-time high...

Bankrupt is simply impossible: from here, they just could do anything they want, the console business is theirs once again... absolutely no way they will leave the business, as they have some of the most talented teams out there, and many projects we still know nothing about...

No, Ninty is here to stay, with or without 3rd parties support, which tells us a lot... only Sony and Microsoft could have problems in a near future... i really think there's only room for two home consoles, so we'll see... as i don't like Microsoft, i wish Sony good luck anyway, even if their PS3 strategy is a mess, and doesn't help the industry to move forward...

I really think that the biggest problem this generation has is the cost of entry.  A record number of people had PS2's which made it easy to push any shovelware and get great results.  Now we're finding the the Xbox 360 and PS3 haven't hit enough people to make an okay game work.  The blockbusters sell well enough to get a good profit and everything thrown at the Wii has sold well so far.  Unfortunately many game developers are using that to justify we'll put our cheap projects on the Wii and our big projects on the PS3/Xbox360.  However, I believe that once the PS3 and Xbox 360 hit market price (if they get there), you'll see that most developers will be able to make decent profits on the games they produce as the base of individuals will be enough to reward them.

This is why I predict a forth (and possibly fifth) major player will join the market.  MS & Sony have left themselves vunerable and Wii has cracked the mass market nut. 

If say Apple for example puts out what is basically a Wii HD and markets it as the cool thing (successfully) with graphics close to 360s (but not necessarily as good) developers will happily port all their Wii games over and all their HD games over (with a few exceptions) to this new system.  Gamers finally get the best of both worlds.  Image CoD4 on a Wii-esque system. What could be better?  If such system is successful, and could be just on Wii crumbs (as Nintendo still can't supply adequately), then MS & Sony would either: A) not be able to respond and lose marketshare, and be seen as 'old' tech despite slight graphic superiority, and lose money C) Cut prices drastically to remain competitive in this new order and lose money B) Be forced to launch a 'next' gen system far earlier than they'd like and lose billions on this generation (and even previous for MS) D) Give up

One of the other things that can help, is in game advertising. now this idea has turned my stomach many times, but it may be one of the only ways to keep cutting edge games affordable. now that we are hooked up to the web almost all the time, much like tv ads could be swapped out realtime, and developers paid by how many people are playing the games. this means costs could stay down, on the bright side, for awhile you might have the option of paying more for the collectors or deluxe edition where no ingame ads are present.